农作物主要病虫害对甘肃气候暖干化的响应及应对技术的研究进展

通过选取甘肃省80个气象站点1961—2010年的气象要素值计算和分析,结果表明,暖干化是甘肃现代气候变化的基本特征。甘肃年平均气温气候倾向率均为正值,年平均气温每10年增温0.29℃;年降水量自1961年以来呈持续下降趋势,降水距平百分率以每10年1.7%的速率递减。揭示了气候变化对马铃薯晩疫病、麦蚜虫、小麦条锈病、玉米棉铃虫、红蜘蛛等5种主要农作物病虫害的影响。总结气候暖干化对主要农作物病虫害的主要危害特征：病虫种类增多、地域范围扩大;越冬界线北移、时间提早发生、受害程度加重;害虫生长季节延长、繁殖代数增加、种群增长加快;病毒病增多,易发大流行;寄主、害虫、天敌种群的生态系统发生了变化,使害虫得到迅速繁殖。提出完善农作物病虫害监测评估预警体系建设,提高精准优质预报服务;建立防治农作物病虫害管理生产新模式和配套技术适应气候变化;根据未来气候预测和针对不同气候类型以及不同气候年型调整作物种植结构和比例;制定精细化农作物病虫害综合农业自然资源区划,确定精准的高危病区范围重点防治等4个方面的措施和技术应对气候暖干化。

The Response of Plant Diseases and Pests to Climatic Warmer-drying and Its Adaptive Technique in the Northwest China

By analyzing meteorological elements of 80 meteorological stations in Gansu province from 1961 to 2010, we concluded that the warmer and drying in the northwest region was the basic features of modern climate changing. The results showed that the annual average temperature raised 0.29 ℃ per decade and temperature increased 1.4 ℃ during nearly half a century. The warmer years were in the period of from 1997 to 2008 within 48 years. Annual precipitation had been declining since 1961, and the turning point was in 1986, the average annual precipitation reduced by 20 to 40 mm during 1987 to 2008 than that in 1961 to 1986. We analyzed the relationship between the development of wheat stripe rust, potato epidemic, aphid, cotton bollworm and red mite and meteorological factors. We explored the impact of climate warm drying on the safety of HIV strains overwinter and oversummer, breed generations, disease time, harmful region, area and degree. The five main harmful characteristics had been exposed. First, the kinds of pests increased and harmful range amplified. Second, the boundary line of overwinter moved northward and harmful degree increased. Third, the period of pest growth extended, the breed generations increased and pest population growth accelerated. Fourth, the viral disease increased and pandemic occurred easily. Last, the ecology system of host, parasite and natural enemy population changed and the pest produced rapidly. We also provided four countermeasures to adapt to climate warmer drying. We should firstly build the assessment and early warning system for crop pest monitoring and first rate service. Next, the new control model of plant diseases and pests should be set up to adapt to climate change. Then, we should adjust the plant structure by weather forecast and different climate model year. Lastly, we should make fining crop pests comprehensive and agricultural natural resources division and confirm the region of high plant disease risk and the spot of key prevention and control.