MODE-TD检验方法在上海快速更新同化业务预报系统中的初步应用

本文将时域目标检验方法(MODE-TD)初步应用于上海快速同化更新预报系统(SMS-WARRV2.0),结果表明：(1)区别于传统检验方法,引入时间维后,MODE-TD方法可以通过降水目标轨迹、生命周期、生成和消散频数、体积比、速度差和方向差等检验指标来评估高分辨率模式预报性能。(2)SMS-WARRV2.0系统能较好的模拟出2017年5月7日广州特大暴雨降水目标发生、发展和消亡的过程。(3)统计检验结果显示SMS-WARRV2.0系统能较好模拟出降水目标生成和消散个数变化趋势,配对降水目标体积比误差较小,预报目标个数偏多,预报目标生命周期偏长。

Preliminary Application of Object-Based Time-Domain Verification Method to Domestic Rapid Updated Cycling Analysis and Forecast system

MODE-TD verification method was preliminarily applied to Shanghai rapid updated cycling analysis and forecast system (SMS-WARRV2.0). The results show that: (1) Different from traditional verification methods, by adding the time dimension, some verification attributes such as the track of precipitation objects, object lifetime, the frequency of object initiation and dissipation, volume ratio, speed delta, direction difference can be used for evaluating the prediction performance of the high resolution model. (2) SMS-WARRV2.0 had a good performance of simulation of the initiation, development and dissipation of precipitation object of the heavy rainstorm in Guangzhou on May 7,2017. (3) The statistic verification results show that the frequency of object initiation and dissipation and rate of change were well simulated by SMS-WARRV2.0, the error of marching object volume ratio was small, the number of precipitation objects forecasted by SMS-WARRV2.0 was more than observation objects, also have a longer lifetime than observation objects.