郑州市近58a降雨量变化分析

采用水文序列中常用的谱分析、有序聚类分析、Kendall秩次相关检验和Man-Kendall检验等方法,分别对郑州市1951-2008年的年降雨量、汛期和非汛期降雨量序列进行周期性、突变性和趋势性检验分析,结果显示:总体上郑州市年降雨量保持平稳,但各年汛期和非汛期的降雨量分别呈现出增加和减少的趋势,而且非汛期降雨量减少的趋势性较为显著;年降雨量和汛期降雨量有较为显著的近似10 a的周期,而非汛期降雨量表现为不显著的3 a的周期;年降雨量、汛期和非汛期降雨量序列的突变点均在20世纪70年代末和80年代初,但并不显著。

Analysis of the Precipitation Variation in Zhengzhou in Resent 58 Years

Spectral analysis, sequence clustering analysis, Kendall rank correlation test and Man-Kendall trend test were applied in analyzing the cycle, mutation and trend of precipitation of annual, flood season and non-flood season in Zhengzhou from 1951 to 2008. The results indicated that annual precipitation maintained steady; there are precipitation increasing and reducing trends both in flood season and non-flood season, but precipitation reducing trend is obviously in non-flood season. The significant cycle of annual precipitation and flood season precipitation in Zhengzhou is 10 years, but cycle of non-flood season precipitation is 3 years and non significant. And the non significant mutation point of precipitation of annual, flood season and non-flood season occurred in the late 1970s and early 1980s.