通辽市近50年可能蒸发量与玉米水分系数的变化分析

为了探讨通辽市近50年水分平衡对玉米生产的影响,以修正的彭曼方法计算分析了本市玉米栽培区的科尔沁、开鲁、保康、甘旗卡、库伦、大沁他拉、鲁北7个站1959—2008年的可能蒸发量以及玉米需水量、水分系数的变化状况。结果表明,近50年通辽市可能蒸发量和玉米需水量线性趋势不明显,50年线性累计变化分别不足1mm和10mm,对玉米生产没有明显影响。但玉米水分系数的线性趋势时序相关系数为-0.3024,在0.05信度水平以上,50年累计减小0.135,对玉米生产很不利,它是玉米减产和提高生产成本的重要原因。

Chang Analysis on Possible Evaporation Capacity and Corn Water Coefficient in Recent 50 Years in Tongliao City

In order to discuss water balance influence on corn production in recent 50 years in Tongliao city, the changing condition of possible evaporation capacity, corn water requirement, water coefficient were calculated and analyzed by modified Penman method in Horqin, Kailu, Baokang, Kulun, Daqintala, Lubei of Tongliao city corn cultivation area in recent 50 years （1959-2008）. The results showed that linear relationship was not obvious between possible evaporation capacity and corn water requirement in recent 50 years in Tongliao city, linear cumulative change deficient respectively lmm and lOmm in 50 years, it had not obvious influence on corn production. But the time sequence correlation coefficient of linear trend of corn water coefficient was -0.3024, over 0.05 degree of confidence, cumulative decrease was 0.135 in 50 years, it was not advantaged on corn, and it was important cause of corn decrease production and increasing cost of production.