基于TPB拓展模型游艇旅游行为意向影响机制研究

在改进计划行为理论(TPB)模型基础上,引入人口特征和游艇文化变量,构建游艇旅游行为意向的影响机制模型,以实地调研和问卷调查作为数据来源,运用结构方程模型(SEM)实证检验影响旅游者参与游艇旅游行为意向的主要因素及其作用机制。研究表明:当前我国旅游者参与游艇旅游的意向较高;旅游者的行为态度、主观规范、感知行为控制和游艇文化是影响其选择游艇旅游活动的重要因素;旅游者的行为态度、游艇文化2个变量对游艇旅游行为意向具有显著的正向影响;主观规范和感知行为控制均通过行为态度这一中介变量间接影响游艇旅游行为意向。     

SOME IMPORTANT CHARACTERISTICS OFSURFACE ALBEDO OF CHINA IN RECENT YEARS

Sdsealbedoisdefinedasaratioofreflectivesolarradiationtototalacradiation,whichcanindicatetheaborptionandreflectivecapabilityofthe~hforsolarradiation.Itisan~tfactortoinfluencethes~radiationbalance,espeiallyfortheformationandvariationoflocalndcroclirnate.Generally,theactualdatafromo~tionalstationSforrebationareedintheanalysisofsolacealal.HOwever,therepresentativenessOfthedateisIratedduetothescarcityofobservationalstationandunevendistributionofs~condition.Afterthe1960s,theanalysisfors~ealbedoise…     

One hundred years of mountain hydrology in Switzerland by the WSL

In 1903 the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL started its first forest hydrology measurements with the aim to deliver a sound scientific basis for the implementation of new forest legislation introduced in Switzerland in 1876. This legislation was triggered by several large floods that occurred in Switzerland, for which a major cause was widely seen as the poor condition of forests at that time. Consequently, hydrologic research at WSL first focused on the influence of forests on floods. In the second half of the 20th century, other hydrological issues such as water quality, snow hydrology and sediment transport complemented the hydrologic research at WSL. Some recent results of this work are presented in three papers joining this introductory paper to mark the 100th anniversary of hydrologic research at WSL. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

鄂尔多斯盆地东缘煤储层微孔隙结构特征及其影响因素

在对鄂尔多斯盆地东缘58套采自不同层位不同地域煤样显微组分测试和低温液氮比表面测试的基础上,从比表面积、吸附曲线形态、阶段孔径结构分布、阶段孔径比表面积贡献、FHH分形特征几个方面刻画了煤储层微孔隙特征。同时,就“孔比表面积—孔隙结构—煤物质组成与化学结构”这一因果链,分析了鄂尔多斯盆地东缘煤微孔隙特征与煤变质程度、煤岩显微组分以及矿物组分与类型的关系。研究发现,Ro在0.60%~1.91%范围内,比表面积及FHH分形分维数先明显降低,Ro至1.3%后又略有回升,同时吸附回线“滞后环”及分形尺度对应的压力范围明显减小,孔径3~4 nm“墨水瓶”型孔明显减少乃至消失,并成为比表面积减少的主要贡献者。在相似煤级条件下,惰质组分较镜质组分有更多的比表面积贡献。粘土矿物组分含量>10%时,孔径3~4 nm“墨水瓶”型孔对比表面贡献明显,且随煤级增高影响作用相对加大。     

Low-frequency damping of a moored semisubmersible obtained from simulated extinction tests and mean wave drift forces

Low-frequency damping of a moored semisubmersible drilling platform was obtained from numerical extinction tests simulated in still water and in regular waves and from mean wave drift forces calculated at zero forward speed. The influence of drag forces was represented by the modified Morison equation. The platform as used for the 18th ITTC Comparative Mooring Study was analyzed in irregular beam waves. The computed time series of sway as well as the corresponding sway response spectrum compared favourably with model test measurements, demonstrating that this procedure to determine low-frequency damping can be effective.     

热带气旋进入广西影响区强度突然加强的环流特征及物理量诊断分析

本文对1960~2002年进入广西影响区的热带气旋进行统计分析,发现平均每年有4.3个热带气旋进入广西影响区,强度突然加强的平均每年有0.3个,发生在6~10月,其区域分布主要集中在海南岛东北部近海至粤西近海区域和北部湾海域。利用《台风年鉴》和《历史天气图》以及欧洲中心NCEP再分析资料,对这类热带气旋进行环流特征诊断分析,得出了一些结论,有助于更好地做出这类热带气旋的风力和降水预报。     

The influence of 30~60 d oscillation on the development of the South China Sea summer monsoon

Using the National Center for Enviromental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data and NOAA satellite-obser ved outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) data, the development of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon and intraseasonal (30-60 d) oscillation (ISO) have been examined. The results show that there exists obvious interannual variability of intraseasonal oscillaiton. Using the 16 a time series of filtered OLR averaged over the SCS, an index is defined to define ““onset events““ over the SCS on the ISO time scales. Of the 16 a examined here, 10 shows a strong ISO signal in the onset of monsoon convection over the SCS. In these cases, the ISO initially suppresses the seasonal development of southwesterly and cyclonic circulation over the SCS before the ISO onset. As the ISO propagates northeastward, the low frequency cyclonic circulation anomaly occurs in the SCS and the low frequency southwesterly wind and convection over here dramatically intensify. The northeast progression of the ISO anomaleis plays a role in the initial suppression and then acceleration of the seasonal cycle of the SCS summer monsoon.     

气候变化中海洋和冰冻圈的变化、影响及风险

本文系统梳理了IPCC 《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》(SROCC)的主要结论,并对主要观点进行了解读。报告主要关注全球变暖背景下高山、极地、海洋和沿海地区现在和未来的变化及其对人类和生态系统的影响,以及实现气候适应发展路径的方案。在全球变暖背景下,冰冻圈大面积萎缩,冰川冰盖质量损失,积雪减少,北极海冰范围和厚度减小,多年冻土升温,全球海洋持续增温,1993年以来,海洋变暖和吸热速度增加了一倍以上。同时,海洋表面酸化加剧,海洋含氧量减少。全球平均海平面呈加速上升趋势,2006—2015年全球海平面上升速率为3.6 mm/yr,是1901—1990年的2.5倍,但存在区域差异。高山、极地和海洋的生态系统的物种组成、分布和服务功能均发生变化,并对人类社会产生了显著负面影响。极端海洋气候事件发生频率增多,强度加大。1982年以来,全球范围内海洋热浪的发生频率增加了一倍,且范围更广,持续时间更长。海平面持续上升加剧了洪涝、海水入侵、海岸侵蚀等海岸带灾害,并影响沿海生态系统。海洋及冰冻圈的变化及其影响在未来一定时期仍将持续,应对这些影响而面临的挑战,应加强基于生态系统的适应和可再生能源管理,强化海岸带地区的海平面上升综合应对,打造积极有效、可持续和具有韧性的气候变化应对方案。     

起算点精度对GPS基线解算质量的影响

基线处理时要求知道一个点的坐标,其精度对GPS基线的解算结果有影响。采用实测数据研究起算点精度对GPS基线解算质量的影响,得出了其影响规律,同时给出了提高起算点精度的方法。     

上海石化总厂化工物料码头对附近水下地形变化的影响

分析了上海石化总厂化工物料码头周围水下地形工程前后的变化。指出在淤泥质岸段,由于沿岸工程的影响,造成工程附近水域动力环境的改变,水下地形随之作出相应的调整。特别在淤泥质岸段附近流急、含沙量高的水域中构筑沿岸工程,工程的水流下方一侧,水流减缓,水流挟沙能力大大减弱,出现明显的局部淤浅地形,为提高工程效益,对各工程之间的相互影响,应予以重视。