“3S”技术在四川生态环境动态监测中的应用研究

为有效实现四川省生态环境的动态监测,运用RS、GIS和GPS技术,以2004年中巴资源卫星(CBERS-02)遥感影像数据为信息源,2000年TM遥感影像解译的数据为基础,对2004年遥感影像进行解译,修改2000年数据库;手持GPS接收机,在野外对解译成果进行验证,更新数据库;利用GIS技术的空间分析功能,提取出2000～2004年期间土地利用/覆被变化信息,得到2000～2004年期间四川省高精度的土地利用/覆被变化数据库。最后对四川省土地利用/覆被变化信息进行分析,对四川省生态环境的下一步研究指名了方向。     

A multi-scale study on land use and land cover quality change: The case of the Yellow River Delta in China

This paper presents a case study of the Yellow River Delta in China, to trace land use and land cover changes during the past 20 years, with an emphasis on land quality changes. Three sets of data are used in this case study: remote sensing data derived from satellite images; crop yield data from statistics; and soil data collected by the researchers in the field. Our study reveals that at the regional scale, LUCC has taken place in a positive direction: vegetation cover has been expanding and crop yields per hectare have been on rise. However, while the overall eco-environment has improved, the improvement is uneven across the Delta region. At local levels, some areas show signs of increased salinization and declining organic content. Both natural forces and human activities are responsible for the LUCC, but human activities play a more important role. While some impacts of human activities are positive, the damages are often long-lasting and irreversible. We also conclude that it is necessary to use both macro data (such as remote sensing data) and micro data (data collected in the field) to study land quality change. The former are efficient in examining land quality changes at the regional scale, the latter can serve to verify ground patterns revealed from macro data and help to identify local variations, so as to get a comprehensive understanding of LUCC and promote sustainable land use and land management. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The simulation of LUCC based on Logistic-CA-Markov model in Qilian Mountain area,China

The Qilian mountain area was examined for using the Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model combined with GIS spatial analyst technology to research the transformation of LUCC, driving force system and simulate future tendency of variation. Results show that:(1) Woodland area decreased by 12.55%, while grassland, cultivated land, and settlement areas increased by 0.22%, 7.92%, and 0.03%, respectively, from 1986 to 2014. During the period of 1986 to 2000, forest degradation in the middle section of the mountain area decreased by 1,501.69 km~2. Vegetation cover area improved, with a net increase of grassland area of 38.12 km~2 from 2000 to 2014.(2) For constructing the system driving force, the best simulation scale was 210m×210m. Based on logistic regression analysis, the contribution(weight) of composite driving forces to land use and cover change was obtained, and the weight value was more objectively compared with AHP and MCE method.(3) In the natural scenarios, it is predicted that land use and cover distribution maps of Qilian mountain area in 2028 and 2042, and the Lee-Sallee index test was adopted. Over the next 27 years(2015–2042), farmland, woodland, grassland, settlement areas show an increasing trend, especially settlements with an obvious change of 0.56%. The area of bare land will decrease by 0.89%. Without environmental degradation, tremendous structural change of LUCC will not occur, and typical characteristic of the vertical zone of the mountain would remain. Farmland and settlement areas will increase, but only in the vicinity of Qilian and Sunan counties.     

1993～2003年郑州市土地利用/覆被变化特征研究

以河南省郑州市为例,利用RS、GIS软件对1993年和2003年两时次TM、ETM 影像进行遥感解译,采用GIS空间分析和数理统计分析等方法,研究了10 a来该市土地利用变化过程尤其是土地沙化的变化过程及其社会经济驱动机制。结果表明:10 a来,西部山区、东部沙化地区以及黄河沿岸地区土地利用类型的变化比较大,特别是东部地区用地变化比较剧烈;旱地、草地、工交建设用地面积明显增加,沙化土地、水田、林地、水体面积呈现减少的趋势;沙化现象得到了有效遏制,草地面积的增加,改善了研究区的生态环境。此外,林地面积的大量减少,应引起重视,可实行退耕还林或植树造林以建立良好的生态环境。     

海峡两岸城市绿地遥感监测与对比分析

以福州和台北的ASTER和TM遥感影像为数据源,提取两市中心城区绿地信息并计算景观生态指标。对比分析结果表明:1988～2004年期间,两市中心城区面积增加,绿地面积及其所占比例减少,但福州城镇扩张速度和绿地面积所占比例下降幅度远大于台北;两市绿地斑块形状趋向简化,连通性变小,聚集程度降低;与2004年福州相比,2003年台北中心城区绿地的形状更规则,连通性更强,聚集程度较高。     

Influence of Land Use/Cover Change on Storm Runoff— A Case Study of Xitiaoxi River Basin in Upstream of Taihu Lake Watershed

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is one of the main boundary conditions which influence many hydrologic processes. In view of the importance of Taihu Lake Watershed in China and the urgency of discovering the impacts of LUCC on storm runoff, two flood events under five land cover scenarios in the Xitiaoxi River Basin of the upstream of Taihu Lake watershed were simulated by distributed hydrologic modeling system HEC-HMS. The influences of each land cover on storm runoff were discussed. It was concluded that under the same rainstorm the ascending order of runoff coefficient and peak flow produced by the 5 different land covers were woodland, shrub, grassland, arable land, and built-up land; the descending order of swelling time were woodland, shrub, grassland, arable land, and built-up land. Scenario of built-up land was the first to reach peak flow, then arable land, grassland, shrub, and woodland. There were close relationships between the runoff coefficients produced by the 5 different land covers. The degrees of impacts on runoff coefficient of land cover change modes were sorted by descending: woodland to built-up land, shrub to built-up land, grassland to built-up land, arable land to built-up land, woodland to arable land, shrub to arable land, arable land to grassland, shrub to grassland, grassland to arable land, and woodland to shrub. Urbanization will contribute to flood disaster, while forestation will mitigate flood disaster.     

典型农牧交错区LUCC及农牧交替演化过程分析——以内蒙古赤峰市为例

以内蒙古赤峰市为例,利用TM影像解译得到的三期土地利用数据(1988、1995、2000年)研究20世纪80年代以来,典型农牧交错区的LUCC演化过程,主要采用土地利用开发度、耗减度、信息熵、空间转移矩阵等方法分析了不同阶段农牧交替演化的时空特征。结果表明:(1)草地、耕地、林地为研究区主要的土地利用方式,整个研究时段内,耕地开垦和草地减少是主导LUCC过程。耕地开垦面积达2424.12km²,草地减少1959.65km²。从前后两个时期来看,前期(1988-1995年)耕地和草地变化更为剧烈,耕地以增为主,草地以减为主;后期(1995-2000年)草地转出速度放缓,但耕地开垦速度仍相对较快,林地转出速度加快;(2)土地流转过程以农牧交替演化为主,前期草地与耕地的交替转化剧烈,草地开垦面积达到2 040.50km²,耕地撂荒还草634.75km²,耕地开垦主要集中在敖汉旗的北部;后期LUCC过程放缓,草地转耕地面积为828.50km²,主要发生在敖汉旗以及林西县北部地区等区域,伴随着一定程度的弃耕;(3)三个时期土地利用结构信息熵分别为1.290、1.301、1.304,赤峰市土地利用系统有序程度在降低。农牧交错演化过程的分析,为研究该地区人类-环境耦合系统的变化和机制提供了重要依据。     

西双版纳土地利用/覆盖格局的热环境效应研究

利用Landsat TM/ETM＋数据的热红外波段,通过单通道算法,反演了中国热带西双版纳地区的地表温度,并对西双版纳地表温度演变的规律进行了分析,结果显示：（1）研究期间,西双版纳土地利用/覆盖发生了剧烈变化,有林地面积不断减少,旱地、灌木林、茶园与橡胶园面积不断增加;（2）旱地、荒草地、茶园、建设用地的地表真实温度的平均值较高,水体和有林地的平均温度较低;（3）旱地、灌木林、有林地、荒草地和橡胶园对区域的热效应贡献较大,水体、水浇地、建设用地、滩涂和水体的热效应贡献较小;有林地的热单元权重有不断减少的趋势,灌木林与旱地的热单元权重有不断增加的趋势;（4）西双版纳土地利用/覆盖的剧烈变化改变了区域地表温度的分布格局,最终可能会导致地方气候变化。需要进一步开展西双版纳地区LUCC—气候—生态系统耦合研究,深入研究区域LUCC特别是橡胶园的时空变化过程及其气候/生态效应、气候变化与LUCC过程的互馈机制,为实现区域可持续发展提供科学依据。     

The total operating characteristic to measure diagnostic ability for multiple thresholds

The relative operating characteristic (ROC) is a popular statistical method to measure the association between observed and diagnosed presence of a characteristic. The diagnosis of presence or absence depends on whether the value of an index variable is above a threshold. ROC considers multiple possible thresholds. Each threshold generates a two-by-two contingency table, which contains four central entries: hits, misses, false alarms, and correct rejections. ROC reveals for each threshold only two ratios, hits/(hits + misses) and false alarms/(false alarms + correct rejections). This article introduces the total operating characteristic (TOC), which shows the total information in the contingency table for each threshold. TOC maintains desirable properties of ROC, while TOC reveals strictly more information than ROC in a manner that makes TOC more useful than ROC. We illustrate the concepts with an application to land change science.