Exile and exclusion: The legacy of soviet forestry for villages in the north of Perm oblast

This paper explores the relationship between the forestry enterprises (leskhozi) and the inhabitants of forestry villages in the northern rayony of Perm oblast, Russian Federation in the context of the `new regional geography'. These relationships are compared with those identified between peasant farmers and collective and state farms post-1991, and a theory of the cultivation of these relationships as a coping mechanism for both households and enterprises facing difficult economic circumstances is advanced. The situation in the northern rayony is contextualised through discussion of the settlement and development history of the region, which was a recipient of forced and voluntary labour migration during the Soviet period. The paper concludes that in accordance with recent theories of post-communist regional development, the experience of transition in the northern rayony of Perm oblast is determined at least in part by its social and economic context. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

观测数据中气象站位置信息检验及应对策略研究

自动气象站位置信息是准确应用观测数据的前提,但受多种因素影响部分测站位置信息不准确客观存在。依据气象站位置信息的特点,设计了一套适用于观测数据中气象站位置信息检验评估的方法和流程,对2018年1月全国62 162个气象站逐小时观测数据中经纬度和海拔高度进行了检验。结果表明:(1)位置信息出现疑误的站点均为区域站;(2)位置信息的站点疑误率为4. 8%,且海拔高度出现疑误的概率大于经纬度,海拔高度和经纬度的站点疑误率分别为4. 2%和1. 3%;(3)随时间变化异常是位置信息疑误的主要表现形式,经纬度和海拔高度时间一致性检查的方法检出率分别为94. 9%和74. 5%。最后,依托MDOS建立了自动气象站位置信息综合监视流程,降低了位置信息疑误对后端应用的影响。     

湖南农业抗旱能力综合评价

利用灰色系统理论中的关联分析建立了湖南农业抗旱能力评价的指标体系，运用密切值法对湖南14个地州市的抗旱能力进行了综合排序。其结果表明湖南省各州市的农业抗旱能力差异较大，其中：衡阳（0．03）、常德（0．32）密切值小，抗旱能力强，株洲（3．14）、张家界（3．34）密切值大，抗旱能力弱。并根据湖南的实际为其抗旱减灾、提高抗旱能力提出了合理的建议与对策。     

长江口年代际冲淤演变趋势预测与应对策略

受流域来水来沙条件变化及河口大型工程建设的综合影响,长江口呈现新的冲淤格局,为预测未来演变趋势,本研究基于前期研究中建立的长江口年代际冲淤演变预测模型（Delft3D）,未来情景考虑不同来沙量条件和相对海平面上升速率。预测结果表明,到2035年长江口整体以冲刷为主,口内河段主槽和浅滩边缘冲刷较明显,仅高滩局部淤积;到2050年口内河段保持净冲刷状态,拦门沙地区在现状来沙量条件下略有淤积,但在极端低来沙量条件下转变为净冲刷状态,海平面上升对拦门沙地区冲刷具有一定抵消作用,但不会使冲淤状态产生本质改变。本研究分析认为,长江口局部区域未来冲淤趋势可能对河口综合治理与保护产生不利影响,针对新格局条件下的滩槽河势稳定、重要洲滩保护、重大工程安全评估、冲刷致灾研判以及海堤防护标准再评估等方面提出了对策建议,可为新时期长江口综合治理与可持续发展提供参考。     

Critical adaptation to hurricanes in the Mexican Caribbean: Development visions, governance structures, and coping strategies

The need to tackle climate hazards and development efforts simultaneously is widely acknowledged. However, the possibility of alternative visions of development is seldom contemplated. Instead, adaptation research usually assumes monolithic claims about development constructed from the status quo of global capitalism. This paper outlines a critical approach to adaptation and explores the interplay between visions of development, governance structures, and strategies to cope with hurricanes in the Mexican Caribbean, a region at the ‘front line’ of both globalization and climatic extreme phenomena. Critical adaptation formulates the experiencing of hazards as essentially political and tied to contingent development paths, which may eventually become hegemonic. Over a hundred semi-structured and open interviews were held in Cancun, Mahahual, Playa del Carmen, and Tulum including academics, businesspeople, bureaucrats, journalists, non-governmental organizations and tourism workers in order to characterize development visions in the Mexican Caribbean. Findings show a prevalent hegemonic vision supporting mass tourism growth which encourages hurricane coping strategies based on effective evacuation and attracting investments for rapid economic recovery. The actual implementation of this vision increases social inequalities, degrades ecosystems, and amplifies overall exposure to extreme events. Mass tourism is enforced by undemocratic governance structures sustained by a coalition of government and tourism corporations (a government-capital bloc in Gramsci's sense). Some weak signs of counter-hegemony were identified in Playa del Carmen, Tulum and Mahahual. These isolated episodes of resistance might have triggered alternative coping strategies despite having little effect in altering the overall course of development. Further critical research is needed to unveil the socio-political foundations of development visions and their influence on capacities to cope with climatic extreme events.     

碳边境调节机制最新进展及潜在影响

2023年5月17日,欧盟碳边境调节机制法规正式生效,年底就要进入试运行阶段。法规要求出口特定产品到欧盟的企业为产品生产过程中所产生的温室气体排放支付费用。根据各国学者的建模分析,这将增加所有销往欧盟市场的相关产品的温室气体排放成本,对欧盟以外国家的生产、贸易、就业和收入产生不利影响,而欧盟国家的企业则获得相对的竞争优势,这引发了诸多争议。对此,中国应在多边主义框架下积极与欧盟开展磋商,争取全球各国在公平的前提下提升减排雄心,同时加紧全国碳市场建设,促进国内的碳价提高到足以反映国内减排成本的水平,促进相关行业的碳排放核算能力建设,以求降低增加的管理成本,并推动低碳技术的发展,以降低欧盟碳边境调节机制带来的负面影响。     

应对干旱的黄河干流梯级水库群协同调度

科学控制梯级水库蓄泄过程是减少旱灾损失的重要手段。以减少干旱年份流域缺水量和优化缺水时空分布为目标,构建应对干旱的梯级水库群多时空尺度协同优化调度模型。采用交互式与改进粒子群优化方法,外层寻求多年调节水库旱限水位最优控制,内层优化梯级水库群年内蓄泄过程,实现流域水资源年际调控、年内优化、库群协同、空间协调。以2014年的黄河流域重旱为例,通过模型优化提出2012—2014年龙羊峡水库旱限水位及梯级水库群年内蓄泄过程,结果表明:通过龙羊峡水库旱限水位控制实现跨年度补水,控制各年度缺水率在4.9%~5.7%之间,通过水库群出库过程优化控制不同区域各时段缺水均匀分布,将农业缺水率控制在7.0%~11.0%之间,显著减轻了旱灾损失。     

区域海洋减灾能力评估指标体系构建与权重量化

为有效开展防灾减灾,需要充分了解区域海洋减灾能力现状,从而科学确定未来减灾能力建设的优先领域及重点工程。首先梳理了能力评估与灾害管理阶段、能力建设优先领域、能力评估对象与建设主体等要素之间的关系,以及评估指标体系共性设计与区域个性的关系;其次,通过组织部门及地方的相关减灾机构与专家开展多方参与式讨论,综合了海洋、水文、气象、民政、应急、教育及综合减灾等多个领域专家的减灾经验,构建了区域海洋减灾能力评估三级指标体系,包括6个一级指标、21个二级指标及136个三级指标;然后,基于专家问卷(有效问卷69份)及层次分析(AHP)方法,量化了三级指标体系中各指标的权重。区域海洋减灾能力评估三级指标体系及指标权重成果已在相关市县开展了评估试点应用,为未来在全国范围开展区域海洋减灾能力评估奠定了良好基础。     

Research on Cultural Dimension of Natural Disaster:A Literature Review

Culture provides an important perspective to understand society. It is one of the key factors that impact how people behave themselves, interact with one another, view the world; what they believe and value. Therefore, a good understanding of public disaster awareness and disaster coping is impossible without taking their culture context into consideration. Since the 1960s, cultural dimension in disaster issues and/or disaster reduction practices has been attracting increasingly attention; many empirical or theoretical explorations have been reported. This review aims to give an overview of research progresses on how culture impacts public awareness and coping of disasters, and analyze the corresponding implications for disaster research and disaster reduction practice. This review summarizes that: ①There is unanimous consensus on public awareness and coping of disaster, which are affected by their culture context. While the knowledge about the ways and degree of impact is still limited, further research is warranted. In addition, more systematic and in-depth studies conducted from cross-cultural perspectives are needed to design to further explore the origins of variance in public disaster awareness and coping, and to what extent from cultural differences. ②Research on public awareness of disaster, emergency response and recovery indicated that culture might have double-side impacts on disaster management—sometimes cultural factors such as value, norm, custom and belief might lead to people more vulnerable than the others, even could be the root causes, but they could also be the source of people’s resilience to disaster in some cases. How to identify those positive and negative impacts, then develop cultural-oriented disaster management policy is a challenge issue, which need special attention. ③There is an increasing acknowledgement that local knowledge and disaster subculture could play an important role in public disaster coping, while the lacking of the awareness of the value of local knowledge, the change of lifestyle, and the impact from external culture pose a threat to the inheritance of some local, traditional disaster coping strategies. So exploring how to conserve, protect, identify, document them, then combine them with modern science and technology should and will be the focus of relevant studies. On the bases of these summarizations, in terms of cultural dimension of natural disaster research in China, systematic and in-depth studies are needed to explore how Chinese culture affects public disaster awareness and coping, what cultural resources can be used in disaster (risk) reduction and for building and enhancing disaster resilience, and how to use them.     

某公路软弱地基上的高填方路基开裂失效病害处治对策研究

以我国西南某高速公路软弱地基上的高填方路堤开裂失效病害实例作为研究对象,以病害现象反复发生反复处治、病害认识不断加深的历程作为基础:先是因为对软弱地基处理方式失当而在路堤填筑过程中产生了侧向滑移病害;后又因为对病害机制认识不准确,导致制定的治理方案处治病害不彻底,使得路堤重新填筑过程中再次产生了侧向滑移病害;然后,再次因为对病害机制的认识还是不到位,并且对治理方案作用机理的理解不透彻,导致了病害进一步加重而致使路堤不得不重新填筑。通过对病害发生、发展过程的再认识和再评估,对病害发生机制进行了较为深入的探究和论述,对未能达到预期的病害处治对策进行了总结和反省,提出了病害防治的应对策略和思路,形成了病害处治方案且经历了实践的验证。