Modelling the effect of changing precipitation inputs on deep soil water utilization

Forests in the Southeastern United States are predicted to experience future changes in seasonal patterns of precipitation inputs as well as more variable precipitation events. These climate change‐induced alterations could increase drought and lower soil water availability. Drought could alter rooting patterns and increase the importance of deep roots that access subsurface water resources. To address plant response to drought in both deep rooting and soil water utilization as well as soil drainage, we utilize a throughfall reduction experiment in a loblolly pine plantation of the Southeastern United States to calibrate and validate a hydrological model. The model was accurately calibrated against field measured soil moisture data under ambient rainfall and validated using 30% throughfall reduction data. Using this model, we then tested these scenarios: (a) evenly reduced precipitation; (b) less precipitation in summer, more in winter; (c) same total amount of precipitation with less frequent but heavier storms; and (d) shallower rooting depth under the above 3 scenarios. When less precipitation was received, drainage decreased proportionally much faster than evapotranspiration implying plants will acquire water first to the detriment of drainage. When precipitation was reduced by more than 30%, plants relied on stored soil water to satisfy evapotranspiration suggesting 30% may be a threshold that if sustained over the long term would deplete plant available soil water. Under the third scenario, evapotranspiration and drainage decreased, whereas surface run‐off increased. Changes in root biomass measured before and 4 years after the throughfall reduction experiment were not detected among treatments. Model simulations, however, indicated gains in evapotranspiration with deeper roots under evenly reduced precipitation and seasonal precipitation redistribution scenarios but not when precipitation frequency was adjusted. Deep soil and deep rooting can provide an important buffer capacity when precipitation alone cannot satisfy the evapotranspirational demand of forests. How this buffering capacity will persist in the face of changing precipitation inputs, however, will depend less on seasonal redistribution than on the magnitude of reductions and changes in rainfall frequency.     

基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

深水铺管船托管架疲劳分析及动态监测点选取研究

作为S型铺管作业的关键性装备,托管架长期承受着交变载荷的作用,随着海洋开发向超深水发展,结构疲劳破坏问题不容忽视。采用疲劳谱分析的方法并结合线性累积损伤理论,对托管架结构频域下的变形进行了分析,计算了正常海况下和极端海况下托管架疲劳损伤度并对疲劳寿命进行了评估。研究发现托管架在正常海况下作业符合安全要求,在极端海况下局部结构会受到破坏。并从托管架结构安全监测角度,筛选了结构疲劳分析关键点位,为监测点位的选取提供了依据。     

A multi‐level parallelized substructuring‐frontal solution for coupled thermo/hydro/mechanical problems in unsaturated soil

This paper proposes a multi‐level parallelized substructuring–frontal combined algorithm for the analysis of the problem of thermo/hydraulic/mechanical behaviour of unsaturated soil. Temperature, displacement, pore water pressure and pore air pressure are treated as the primary variables in a non‐linear analysis. Details are given firstly of the substructuring–frontal combined approach. The incorporation of the algorithm in a multi‐level parallel strategy is then discussed. The parallel processing can thus be carried out at different substructural levels. The method thus developed impacts, in a positive way, on both computer storage requirement and execution time. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

超基性岩中含铜、钴块状硫化物矿床——德尔尼铜矿成因新认识

长期以来对德尔尼铜矿的成因存在着不同认识。从矿石组成和结构、构造来看,应属典型的块状硫化物矿石,矿床亦应属于含铜黄铁矿型矿床。但从其地质产状来看又与一般的黄铁矿型矿床大不相同,与一般的岩浆熔离铜镍硫化物矿床也有较多差异。这就是本矿床类型独特之处。近年来通过工作又取得一些新资料,特别是超基性岩和矿石的同位素年龄数据。本文在综合新老资料基础上,提出新看法,认为该矿床形成于上地幔,再就位于地壳浅部。其成因类型暂定为:“深部熔离—构造侵位矿床”。鉴于本矿床与一般块状硫化物矿床相比有其独特性,建议命名为“德尔尼型”。     

自动高精度测距系统

介绍了自动高精度测距系统。该系统能以５×１０－７的测距精度测定多个观测点的形变，可作为跨断层动态连续观测的新仪器。     

介质横向不均匀对震后地表位移场的影响

利用三维有限元模拟两层地球模型(包括弹性层和粘弹性层)介质的横向不均匀和断层错动的复杂性对震后地表位移场的影响，其数值结果包括弹性解和粘弹性解。结果表明，震后位移场的分布特征不仅与粘弹性层的流变特性有关，还与弹性层介质的剪切模量以及断层的同震错动有关。     

Deep Processes of Basin Evolution:A Case Study of the Southern Songliao Basin and Adjacent Area,NE China in Mesozoic-Cenozoic

1IntroductionOne of the key factors related to basin geody-namics is deep process controlling formation and evolution of sedimentary basin. Depth and tempera-ture of asthenosphere,existence of mantle plume,occurrence of mantle melting,and amounts of melts under depressurization during thinning of lithosphere are controlling factors influenced formation and characteristics of extensional basin directly (Li,1994). Rifting is probably governed by frictional forces exerted on the base of litho…     

Tests and constraints on theories of galaxy formation and evolution

Tests and constraints on current theories of galaxy formation and evolution are presented. They are derived from observations of the Northern Hubble Deep Field with WFPC2 and NICMOS. Photometric redshifts, extinctions and spectral energy distributions are calculated for all objects in the field. The tests and constraints are derived from the output of this analysis. The tests of the predictions from hierarchical and pure luminosity evolution galaxy evolution calculations favor the hierarchical model. Constraints are provided by the current luminosity function and its evolution to a redshift of 6. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.