基于MFA与DEA分析的辽宁省物质减量化检验研究

选择老工业基地的核心代表——辽宁省作为研究对象,分析其物质流账户指标,判断了1990～2008年辽宁省直接物质投入、生产过程排放及物质总需求3个账户指标的走向趋势;运用数据包络分析(DEA)方法分析物质流账户(MFA)主要指标的综合效率,明确了辽宁省物质减量化的急切任务,对辽宁省物质流减量化发展历程进行了检验研究。研究发现:(1)辽宁省经济增长的物质投入减量化趋势存在,物质投入对环境的破坏表现仍然比较突出。(2)辽宁省直接物质投入与生产过程排放各自的综合效率呈增长趋势,总体平均效率较低,即经济发展伴随着物质投入的相对饱和及废物排放对环境的破坏。(3)辽宁省物质减量化的反弹效应升高,表现为随直接物质投入的增加,环境压力将更加严峻;减量效应的波动变化影响了相应年份的物质投入与排放。(4)1990～2008年,辽宁省共减少直接物质投入22.88亿t、减少生产过程排放5.82亿t;潜在物质减量指数高于潜在废物减排指数,折射出由于直接物质投入的持续增长,将会导致废弃物的进一步过度排放;物质减量化总缺口与废物减排总缺口均大于0,说明辽宁省物质减量化和废物减排潜力得到一定程度实现,但是与理想状态还有较大差距。     

基于物质流分析的区域循环经济评价指标体系构建——以陕西省榆林市为例

以物流分析为基础,兼顾循环经济的3R原则,利用循环经济发展中涉及的物质流分析指标,以及物质流指标与人、经济、单位投入、产出等外延领域的结合衍生指标构建循环经济评价指标体系,并对各指标作了解释,对数据来源途径做了分析.     

生态足迹评介及国际研究前沿

生态足迹评价方法是评估可持续发展的一个全球可比的、可测度的直观且综合的指标,有明显的政策含义,是迄今提出的评估可持续发展的众多指标中最受生态经济学界关注、推崇和广泛应用的一个指标。评介了生态足迹方法模型的优缺点,综述了国际上生态足迹研究的最新进展及研究前沿,指出了国内围绕生态足迹研究应该尽快开展的工作：①生态足迹方法模型的改进及应用研究;②丰富生态足迹方法模型携带的信息量和政策内涵;③社会经济系统新陈代谢以及人类对初级生产力的占用研究;④消费模式与全球资源和环境的压力的关系;⑤物质流核算帐户研究和生态包袱分析研究。     

Prospects for a saturation of humanity’s resource use? An analysis of material stocks and flows in nine world regions from 1900 to 2035

Material stocks in infrastructure, buildings and machinery shape current and future resource use and emissions. Analyses of specific countries and selected materials suggest that material stocks might saturate, which would be important for a more sustainable social metabolism. However, it is unclear to what extent the evidence holds for a wider range of stocks and flows, as well as for world regions or globally.We present an inflow-driven dynamic stock-flow model for 14 bulk materials, end-of-life outflows, recycling, and waste flows for nine world regions from 1900 to 2015, extended with trend scenarios until 2035. Material stocks are growing in all regions and show little signs of saturation yet. In 2015, China used half of global stock-building materials, overtook everyone in stock size around 2012 and grows its stock at ∼8%/year. The Industrialized regions, including the Former Soviet Union, are slowly expanding their high stock levels at ∼1%/year. Stocks in all other regions, inhabited by 60% of the world population, grow at ∼3–5%/year. Inequalities in per capita stocks between regions are large. Trend scenarios suggest potential absolute or per capita stock saturations in some of the industrialized regions, while all other regions are expected to continue high stock growth.Accumulated stocks drive future end-of-life materials and substantial maintenance and replacement requirements. Growing material stocks hamper a potential stabilization or reduction of resource use. Low stock levels in most world regions suggest a crucial window of opportunity for avoiding resource-intensive stock development. In the industrialized regions and especially China, stabilising and reducing resource use requires halting net stock expansion and transforming existing stocks. More materials- and energy-efficient and long-lived stocks which deliver high quality services, and improved reuse, repair and recycling of increasing end-of-life materials to close loops and actually replace virgin resources, are crucial for a more sustainable social metabolism.