基于MFA与DEA分析的辽宁省物质减量化检验研究

选择老工业基地的核心代表——辽宁省作为研究对象,分析其物质流账户指标,判断了1990～2008年辽宁省直接物质投入、生产过程排放及物质总需求3个账户指标的走向趋势;运用数据包络分析(DEA)方法分析物质流账户(MFA)主要指标的综合效率,明确了辽宁省物质减量化的急切任务,对辽宁省物质流减量化发展历程进行了检验研究。研究发现:(1)辽宁省经济增长的物质投入减量化趋势存在,物质投入对环境的破坏表现仍然比较突出。(2)辽宁省直接物质投入与生产过程排放各自的综合效率呈增长趋势,总体平均效率较低,即经济发展伴随着物质投入的相对饱和及废物排放对环境的破坏。(3)辽宁省物质减量化的反弹效应升高,表现为随直接物质投入的增加,环境压力将更加严峻;减量效应的波动变化影响了相应年份的物质投入与排放。(4)1990～2008年,辽宁省共减少直接物质投入22.88亿t、减少生产过程排放5.82亿t;潜在物质减量指数高于潜在废物减排指数,折射出由于直接物质投入的持续增长,将会导致废弃物的进一步过度排放;物质减量化总缺口与废物减排总缺口均大于0,说明辽宁省物质减量化和废物减排潜力得到一定程度实现,但是与理想状态还有较大差距。

Study on material dematerialization test of Liaoning Province based on MFA and DEA models

Material flow analysis(MFA) can quantify the relationships of material movement to resource utilization and to environmental effect in economic system by tracing the processes of input,storage and output of some substance in economic-environmental system,and it also can offer scientific basis for optimal management of resource and environment.This paper chose Liaoning Province,a representative of old industrial bases,as the research object.Firstly,by analyzing the indicators of material flow analysis,the paper determined the trends of Direct Material Input(DMI),Domestic Processed Output(DPO) and Total Material Requirement(TMR) between 1990 and 2008.Secondly,the Data Envelopment Analysis method(DEA) was used to measure the main indicators' efficiencies of material flow account respectively and the urgent tasks to dematerialize in Liaoning Province were clarified.Finally,research of testing the developing process of dematerialization in Liaoning Province was made.Some conclusions can be drawn as follows.(1) There was a dematerializing trend during the economic development,but the damage of DMI to environment was distinct.(2) The general efficiencies of DMI and DPO showed an upgrading performance while their average efficiencies were still low,which meant the DMI was saturated and the environment was destroyed with economic development.(3) The rebound effect of dematerialization was increasing as DMI was expanding and environmental stress was intensified.Fluctuations of dematerialization effect influenced the DMI and DPO of the corresponding years.(4) In 1990-2008,Liaoning Province reduced 22.88 million tons of DMI,and 5.82 million tons of DPO.Potential input dematerialization index was higher than potential waste dematerialization index,reflecting the rise of DMI would increase wastewater discharge.The dematerialization gaps of material input and waste were both greater than 0,which implied the potential of input dematerialization and waste dematerialization had been fulfilled to some degree,but more efforts should be done.