Group K-Nearest Neighbors queries in spatial network databases

This paper addresses the problem of Group K-Nearest Neighbors (GKNN) queries in spatial network databases, and suggests a novel approach based on real network distances. This approach essentially uses network Voronoi diagram properties together with a progressive incremental network expansion for determining the inner network distances that are needed to obtain GKNN queries.      

K 近邻非参数回归概率预报技术及其应用

针对参数回归技术制作概率预报存在拟合好、但预报结果不稳定的现象, 提出了用K近邻非参数回归技术制作概率预报的新途径。K 近邻非参数回归技术包括历史样本数据库、近邻子集生成和优化以及预报量估计4 个主要部分。利用该技术进行了单要素概率预报(主要包括云量和降水)和多维联合概率预报(降水、总云量、风速和气温)试验, 并对试验结果进行了检验。实例研究结果表明:该文所给出的计算方案预报稳定性好, 准确率较高,具有良好的业务应用价值。     

基于EEMD和ARIMA的海温预测模型研究

类型丰富、时空分辨率高的海洋探测数据,为信号分解和机器学习算法的应用提供了可能。本文针对如何建立有效的海温预测模型这一问题,使用高时空分辨率的海表温度(SST)融合产品,引入信号处理领域的集合经验模态分解(EEMD)和机器学习领域的自回归积分滑动平均模型(ARIMA)。首先利用最适于分解自然信号的EEMD方法,将海温数据分解成多个确定频率的序列;再利用ARIMA分别对各个频率的序列进行预测,最后将各个序列的预测结果进行组合。该方法在丰富数据的支撑下,比以往直接使用海温数据所建立的预测模型精度更高,为更好地进行海温预测提供了新方法。     

基于省区协调发展的GDP预测模型

基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数与自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)构建出一个GDP综合预测模型,并且考虑十九大全面建成小康社会与实现共同富裕的精神与国家关于技术、资本、劳动力等方面的区域平衡发展战略调整模型的参数,计算了2016—2050年中国分省的GDP总量与人均GDP,进一步通过计算省区间人均GDP的基尼系数来分析省区协调发展的水平。研究结果表明,在考虑省区协调发展时,各省区在2016—2050年间的GDP总量与人均GDP的差距逐渐缩小,省区间人均GDP的基尼系数将从2015年的0.219下降到2030年的0.176和2050年的0.137,未来区域间发展不均衡的态势在实现经济稳步增长同时可以得到缓解。     

淄博市大武水源地地下水水位总体预测

本文采用水均衡法对淄博市大武水源地地下水位变动进行研究，并对降水量与人渗补给量的关系以及平均给水度随地下水位的变化关系进行了分析。通过历史资料的验证，表明本文所建立的水均衡模型对于地下水位变动的预测是可靠的，而且简单可行，随后根据不同的地下水开采量等对未来地下水位的变动趋势进行了预测。     

压力及流体对岩石孔隙结构与黏弹性的影响规律研究:理论模型及实验观测

地质成因和构造/热应力导致地壳岩石中的孔隙结构（裂隙和粒间孔）的变化.影响岩石黏弹性的因素包括压力、孔隙度、孔隙中包含的流体和孔隙几何形状等.相对于岩石中的硬孔隙,岩石黏弹性（衰减和频散）受软孔隙（裂隙）的影响更大.本文选取三块白云岩样本,进行了不同围压和流体条件下的超声波实验测量.利用CPEM（Cracks and Pores Effective Medium,裂隙和孔隙有效介质）模型获得了岩石高、低频极限的弹性模量,并通过Zener体（标准线性体）模型将CPEM模型拓展到全频带而得到CPEM-Zener模型,用该模型拟合岩石松弛和非松弛状态下的实验数据,本文得到平均裂隙纵横比和裂隙孔隙度以及纵波速度和品质因子随频率的变化关系.结果表明,饱水岩石的平均裂隙纵横比和裂隙孔隙度均高于饱油岩石,随着压差（围压和孔隙压力的差值）的增加,饱油岩石中的裂隙首先闭合.并且压差在70 MPa以内时,随着压差增大,岩石的平均裂隙纵横比和裂隙孔隙度在饱水和饱油时的差值增大,此时流体类型对于岩石裂隙的影响越来越显著,此外,对饱水岩石,平均裂隙纵横比随压差增加而增大,这可能是由于岩石中纵横比较小的裂隙会随压差增大而逐渐趋于闭合.在饱水和饱油岩石中,裂隙孔隙度和裂隙密度都随着压差增加而减小.通过对裂隙密度和压差的关系进行指数拟合,本文获得压差趋于0时的裂隙密度,且裂隙密度随孔隙度增大而增大,增大速率随压差增加而降低.针对饱水和饱油的白云岩样本,CPEM-Zener模型预测的纵波频散随压差增大而减小,此变化趋势和实验测得的逆品质因子随压差的变化关系基本一致,由此进一步验证了模型的实用性.本研究对岩石的孔隙结构和黏弹性分析以及声波测井、地震勘探的现场应用有指导意义.     

基于BMA多模型组合的疏勒河径流预测研究

准确可靠的径流预测对于水资源的科学管理与规划具有重要意义,特别是在水资源紧缺的干旱半干旱地区,径流预测对流域内水资源高效利用与水利工程经济运行具有重要现实意义。针对径流预测通常采用单一方法进行建模与预测,难以利用各预测模型优势的问题,本文利用极限学习机（ELM）模型、支持向量机（SVM）模型、多元自适应回归样条（MARS）等机器学习方法建立了疏勒河上游未来1~7日的径流预测模型。在此基础上,运用贝叶斯模型平均（BMA）方法对ELM、SVM、MARS模型的预测结果进行组合,构建了径流组合预测模型,以获取更可靠的预测结果,并采用蒙特卡洛抽样方法获取BMA的95%置信区间,对预测结果进行了不确定性分析。结果表明：ELM、SVM、MARS模型以及BMA组合模型均适用于干旱半干旱地区的中长期日径流预测;BMA的预测精度较单一模型更高,能够提供更准确的预测值;BMA的95%置信区间对实测值覆盖率高,同时能够提供较好的确定性预测和概率预测结果。表明BMA在资料有限的条件下,表现出较单一模型更高的预测性能,可以成为干旱半干旱地区中长期日径流预测的有效方法。     

基于TIGGE多模式集合的24小时气温BMA 概率预报

利用TIGGE(THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble)单中心集合预报系统(ECMWF、United Kingdom Meteorological Office、China Meteorological Administration和NCEP)以及由此所构成的多中心模式超级集合预报系统24小时地面日均气温预报,结合淮河流域地面观测率定贝叶斯模型平均(Bayesian model averaging,BMA)参数,从而建立地面日均气温BMA概率预报模型.由此针对淮河流域进行地面日均气温BMA概率预报及其检验与评估,结果表明BMA模型比原始集合预报效果好;单中心的BMA概率预报都有较好的预报效果,其中ECMWF最好.多中心模式超级集合比单中心BMA概率预报效果更好,采用可替换原则比普通的多中心模式超级集合BMA模型计算量小,且在上述BMA集合预报系统中效果最好.它与原始集合预报相比其平均绝对误差减少近7%,其连续等级概率评分提高近10%.基于采用可替换原则的多中心模式超级集合BMA概率预报,针对研究区域提出了极端高温预警方案,这对防范高温天气有着重要意义.     

Late Holocene slip rate and average recurrence interval of great earthquakes on the Shangzhi segment of the Yilan‐Yitong Fault Zone,northeastern China: Constraints from paleo‐earthquakes and historical written records

The Yilan‐Yitong Fault Zone (YYFZ) is considered to be the key branch of the Tancheng‐Lujiang Fault Zone (TLFZ) in northeastern China. Although the Mesozoic and early Cenozoic deformation of the YYFZ has been studied intensively over the past century, few estimates of slip rate and recurrence interval of large earthquakes in the late Quaternary, which are the two most important parameters for understanding the potential seismic hazard of this crucial structure, were obtained. Based on integrated interpretations of high resolution satellite images and detailed geologic and geomorphic mapping, linear landforms were identified, including fault scarps and troughs, along the Shangzhi segment of the YYFZ, which exceeds 25 km in length. Synthesized results of trench excavations and differential GPS measurements of terrace surfaces indicate that two events (E1, E2) occurred along the Shangzhi segment during the late Holocene, which resulted in 3.2 ±0.1 m of total vertical co‐seismic displacement with clear features of thrust motion. ¹⁴C dating of samples suggests that event E1 occurred between 440 ±30 years BP and 180 ±30 years BP and that event E2 occurred between 4 090 ±30 years BP and 3 880 ±30 years BP, which indicates that the minimum vertical slip rate of the Shangzhi segment of the YYFZ has been approximately 0.8 ±0.03 mm/year during the late Holocene. Constraints from paleo events and the slip rate suggest that the average recurrence interval of major earthquakes on the YYFZ is 3 800 ±200 years. Historical documents in Korea show that event E1 possibly corresponds to the earthquake that occurred in AD 1810 (the Qing Dynasty in Chinese history) in the Ningguta area, which had surface‐wave magnitude (Ms) of 6.8–7.5. Studies of kinematics show that the right‐lateral strike‐slip with a reverse component has been dominant along the YYFZ during the late Holocene.     

Inter- and intra-annual trend analysis of water level and flow in the middle and lower reaches of the Ganjiang River,China

ABSTRACT

The Ganjiang River is the largest tributary of Poyang Lake in China, and its hydrological regime variation greatly affects the utilization of regional water resources and the ecological environment of the lake. In this study, a novel trend analysis method, the Moving Average over Shifting Horizon (MASH), was applied to investigate the inter- and intra-annual trends of flow and water level from 1976 to 2016 at the Xiajiang and the Waizhou hydrological stations in the Ganjiang River. The Significant Change Rate Method (SCRM) was proposed to determine the MASH averaging parameters. The trend analysis results show a statistically significant decrease in water level series throughout the year and the relationship of flow and water level have changed greatly at the Waizhou station. The sediment load reduction, large-scale sand mining and water level decrease of Poyang Lake are identified as the main causes for the water level decrease.