Local level rainfall and temperature variability in drought-prone districts of rural Sidama,central rift valley region of Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to examine local level spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature variability in drought-prone districts of rural Sidama, Central Rift Valley region of Ethiopia. The study used 129 gridded monthly rainfall and temperature data of 32 years (1983–2014). The gridded rainfall and temperature records were encoded into GIS software and evaluated through different statistical and geospatial techniques. Mann-Kendal rank test and F distribution tests were used to test temporal and spatial statistical significance, respectively, of the data. The analysis revealed that Belg and Kiremt are the main rainfall seasons, constituting 81% of the annual rainfall. Although annual, Kiremt, and Belg rainfall amounts appear to have decreased over time, the decreasing trend is statistically significant only for Belg rainfall records. On the other hand, rainfall standard anomaly results indicated seven droughts of different magnitudes: one extreme, two severe, and four moderate. The study also revealed increasing temperature trends over the years under consideration that are statistically significant. The findings of this study on rainfall contradict other findings obtained around the study area. Thus, climate change adaptations need to focus on location-specific climate data analysis so that the intended adaptive interventions can be successful.     

Speciation of trace metals in sediments of a tropical estuary

Axial surveys were performed in the two river tributaries of the Cochin estuary, SW India during November 1988. Surficial sediments were subjected to sequential chemical extractions to delineate five metal fractions, namely, exchangeable, carbonate bound, easily reducible, organic/sulfide bound, and residual. The results indicated selective accumulation of Mn and Ni in carbonate bound and organic/sulfide forms, along with marginal amounts of Co in the exchangeable fraction. Large portions of Fe and Cr occurred in the residual fraction, whereas composite fractionation of Zn species was noticed. The exchangeable fractions of Fe and Cr as well as of easily reducible cobalt were below detection limits. The levels of Cr and Zn indicate anthropogenic inputs in this estuary, whereas Co and Ni show regional contamination exceeding natural levels. The analytical speciation procedure helps to deduce the sedimental diagenetic processes in the estuarine environment.     

The hydrological influence of black locust plantations in the loess area of northwest China

Black locust (Robina pseudoacacia) has become one of the most important shelter species in the loess area of northwest China. This paper summarizes recent research concerning its hydrological influence, including canopy interception, litter absorption capacity, its effect on rainfall kinetic energy, infiltration rates, surface runoff, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration, and its role in soil conservation. Several predictive models are listed. on the basis of existing results, optimum characteristics for an effective plantation are defined, and problems requiring further research are identified.     

Infiltration at the Tai rain forest (Ivory Coast): Measurements and modelling

Infiltration experiments have been performed at three sites along a well-known catena under virgin tropical rain forest using a portable sprinkling infiltrometer. Experimentally determined infiltration curves are presented. Infiltration curves are also simulated on the basis of the Mein-Larson equation. The parameters for this model have been obtained from the infiltration curves (saturated conductivity) and simple soil moisture determinations (fillable porosity). The agreement between experimentally determined and modelled infiltration is reasonable, provided (a) saturated conductivity as derived from the experimental data is corrected, (b) a storage parameter, also derived from the experimental data, is added to the Mein-Larson model, and (c) the decline in soil porosity with depth is either small or occurs abruptly at shallow depth. Comparison of observed infiltration rates with rainfall intensity shows that Horton Overland Flow has to occur naturally at least on the middle and lower section of the catena. Despite the fact that most parameters can be estimated in principle from basic soil data, it remains advisable to obtain sprinkling infiltrometer field measurements, because of soil variability due to dynamic surface conditions, macroporosity, air entrapment, and irregularity of the wetting front.     

The WRF model performance for the simulation of heavy precipitating events over Ahmedabad during August 2006

The summer monsoon season of the year 2006 was highlighted by an unprecedented number of monsoon lows over the central and the western parts of India, particularly giving widespread rainfall over Gujarat and Rajasthan. Ahmedabad had received 540.2mm of rainfall in the month of August 2006 against the climatological mean of 219.8mm. The two spells of very heavy rainfall of 108.4mm and 97.7mm were recorded on 8 and 12 August 2006 respectively. Due to meteorological complexities involved in replicating the rainfall occurrences over a region, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW version) modeling system with two different cumulus schemes in a nested configuration is chosen for simulating these events. The spatial distributions of large-scale circulation and moisture fields have been simulated reasonably well in this model, though there are some spatial biases in the simulated rainfall pattern. The rainfall amount over Ahmedabad has been underestimated by both the cumulus parameterization schemes. The quantitative validation of the simulated rainfall is done by calculating the categorical skill scores like frequency bias, threat scores (TS) and equitable threat scores (ETS). In this case the KF scheme has outperformed the GD scheme for the low precipitation threshold.     

Mapping susceptibility of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides using a probabilistic approach

To prepare a landslide susceptibility map is essential to identify hazardous regions, construct appropriate mitigation facilities, and plan emergency measures for a region prone to landslides triggered by rainfall. The conventional mapping methods require much information about past landslides records and contributing terrace and rainfall. They also rely heavily on the quantity and quality of accessible information and subjectively of the map builder. This paper contributes to a systematic and quantitative assessment of mapping landslide hazards over a region. Geographical Information System is implemented to retrieve relevant parameters from data layers, including the spatial distribution of transient fluid pressures, which is estimated using the TRIGRS program. The factor of safety of each pixel in the study region is calculated analytically. Monte Carlo simulation of random variables is conducted to process the estimation of fluid pressure and factor of safety for multiple times. The failure probability of each pixel is thus estimated. These procedures of mapping landslide potential are demonstrated in a case history. The analysis results reveal a positive correlation between landslide probability and accumulated rainfall. This approach gives simulation results compared to field records. The location and size of actual landslide are well predicted. An explanation for some of the inconsistencies is also provided to emphasize the importance of site information on the accuracy of mapping results.     

165°E赤道太平洋溶解氧垂直分布异常分析

根据1986—1990中美热带西太平洋海气相互作用8个航次合作综合调查资料，分析了1987年10月赤道中西太平洋165°E（10°N－6°S）次表层水形成溶解氧最大值的原因。1986－1987年E1Nino衰退时期，该海域赤道附近在E1Nino强盛时期下沉的次表层水开始回升，短时期内形成了类似于中、高纬度海域的理化环境，使浮游生物在混合层内聚集生长，最终导致溶解氧含量在次表层出现最大值和过饱和含量。     

春季西北太平洋热带气旋与海温场和大气环流的关系

本文利用1951～1987年286个网格点太平洋月平均海温场及500hPa月平均位势高度场,分析了春季西北太平洋（不含南海）热带气旋与海温场和大气环流的关系。结果表明:前期太平洋海温场与春季热带气旋生成数有显著的相关,并以前一年夏季和前期冬季更为明显。影响春季热带气旋生成的太平洋海温场主要有两个关键区,一个位于赤道东太平洋,为负相关:一个位于北太平洋中部,为正相关。文中还从海温对大气环流影响的角度出发,分析了春季热带气旋活动特多年与特少年前期及同期500hPa大气环流的特征及两者之间的差异。最后利用逐步回归方法作了春季西北太平洋热带气旋长期趋势预报。     

热带太平洋-印度洋上层热含量年际变化的主模态

利用多种海洋资料,采用经验正交函数分解(EOF)与合成分析等方法研究了热带太平洋-印度洋热含量年际变化的主要模态及其对应的转换过程。结果表明其第一模态对应El Nino事件成熟位相时的空间分布,即热带西太平洋和东印度洋为一冷中心,西南印度洋和赤道东太平洋为暖中心;第二模态对应着El Nino事件过渡期的空间分布,太平洋10°N附近以及赤道带为变化中心,而印度洋的变化中心主要在苏门答腊岛西部的赤道东印度洋海区。这2个模态基本刻画了ENSO循环过程中热带两大洋热含量变化的关键海区。利用合成分析结果与EOF分解结果的相似性,探讨了EOF分解前两个模态之间的转换过程,发现第一模态可能主要是通过海洋波动的传播过程调整到第二模态的,而第二模态还可以作为El Nino或La Nina事件的预报因子。此外,分析结果还表明,El Nino事件与La Nina事件对应的热含量变化并不是反对称的。