春季西北太平洋热带气旋与海温场和大气环流的关系

本文利用1951～1987年286个网格点太平洋月平均海温场及500hPa月平均位势高度场,分析了春季西北太平洋（不含南海）热带气旋与海温场和大气环流的关系。结果表明:前期太平洋海温场与春季热带气旋生成数有显著的相关,并以前一年夏季和前期冬季更为明显。影响春季热带气旋生成的太平洋海温场主要有两个关键区,一个位于赤道东太平洋,为负相关:一个位于北太平洋中部,为正相关。文中还从海温对大气环流影响的角度出发,分析了春季热带气旋活动特多年与特少年前期及同期500hPa大气环流的特征及两者之间的差异。最后利用逐步回归方法作了春季西北太平洋热带气旋长期趋势预报。

RELATION AMONG NORTHERN PACIFIC TROPI CAL CYCLONE IN SPRING, THE SST AND THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION

The relation among northern pacific tropical cyclone in spring, the sea surface temperature ( SST ) and the atmospheric circulation has been analyzed by using the data of 286 gridpoints mean monthly SST and mean monthly 500 hPa geopotential height. The results show that the preceding pacific SST was correlated closely with the frequency of tropical cyclone genesis in spring, and the high correlation period was mainly concentrated in the last summer and the preceding winter.It is also illustrated that there are two key regions that the pacific SST has significant influence on the tropical cyclone in spring, the negative correlation region is in the eastern equatorial pacific, while the positive correlation regoin is in the central northern pacific.The characteristics and its difference of 500 hPa atmosphere circulation in the preceding winter and the same period in the most years and in the least years of frequency of tropical cyclone genesis in spring has also been studied based on the influence of SST on the atmosphere circulation. Finally, the long-range forecast of northern pacific tropical cyclone in spring has been carried out by the stepwise regression analysis.