长江经济带城市土地利用效率的影响因素及其空间溢出效应研究

在人多地少的基本国情下,提高城市土地利用效率是促进区域可持续发展和建设生态文明的内在要求。本文在对2009-2016年长江经济带108个地级及以上城市土地利用效率的研究基础上,采用空间相关性研究方法分析了时空分布格局,通过构建空间杜宾模型(SDM)对其空间溢出效应进行分析。研究结果表明:1)2009-2016年长江经济带城市土地利用效率整体呈现稳定上升趋势;基本呈现以上海、南京、武汉等不同城市群中心城市向外逐步降低的“中心-外围”的分布格局。2)通过构建空间杜宾模型分析发现,经济发展水平、产业结构有显著为正的直接效应和溢出效应;土地市场化水平有显著为正的溢出效应;城市固定资产投资对城市土地利用效率具有正的直接效应和负的溢出效应;政府财政支出水平则对城市土地利用效率的直接效应和溢出效应均不明显。3)不同影响因素对经济带上中下游城市土地利用效率的空间效应存在一定差异性。     

基于 SRP 概念模型的祁连山地区生态脆弱性评价

基于生态敏感性-生态恢复力-生态压力度（SRP）概念模型，从地形、气候、植被和社会经济 因子选取 8 个评价指标，利用遥感和 GIS 技术，采用主成分分析方法求取权重，对祁连山地区启动 水源涵养区生态环境保护和综合治理规划研究前后近 10 a 的生态脆弱性程度进行系统、定量地评 估，旨在揭示生态脆弱性的分布特征、时空演变及动因，为区域生态保护、资源利用和可持续发展 提供参考。结果表明：（1）从研究区生态脆弱性分布来看，祁连山地区主要以轻度和重度脆弱为 主，脆弱性程度从西北向东南地区逐渐减弱，西北地区植被覆盖度小，海拔高，生态环境较为恶劣 是导致脆弱性程度较高的原因；（2）祁连山地区 3 期生态脆弱程度呈逐渐下降趋势，综合指数分别 为 3.307、3.118 和 3.103；2005 年 生 态 脆 弱 性 较 高 ，极 度 脆 弱 面 积 为 28 610 km²，2010 年 下 降 为 11 723 km²，2015 年降低为 6 174 km²，极度脆弱面积逐渐减少；（3）从祁连山地区生态脆弱性演变动 因来看，8 个指标对生态脆弱性影响均较为显著，但在不同的时间影响程度各不相同，2005—2015 年 3 期数据中对生态脆弱性影响最大的均为植被指数，降水次之，地形因子影响最小。总体来看， 近年来祁连山地区生态脆弱性程度有所降低，但仍然需要加强保护力度，促进生态环境可持续 发展。     

Age and early metamorphic history of the Sanbagawa belt: Lu–Hf and P–T constraints from the Western Iratsu eclogite

Two distinct age estimates for eclogite-facies metamorphism in the Sanbagawa belt have been proposed: (i) c.  120–110 Ma based on a zircon SHRIMP age for the Western Iratsu unit and (ii) c.  88–89 Ma based on a garnet–omphacite Lu–Hf isochron age from the Seba and Kotsu eclogite units. Despite the contrasting estimates of formation ages, petrological studies suggest the formation conditions of the Western Iratsu unit are indistinguishable from those of the other two units—all ∼20 kbar and 600–650 °C. Studies of the associated geological structures suggest the Seba and Western Iratsu units are parts of a larger semi-continuous eclogite unit. A combination of geochronological and petrological studies for the Western Iratsu eclogite offers a resolution to this discrepancy in age estimates. New Lu–Hf dating for the Western Iratsu eclogite yields an age of 115.9 ± 0.5 Ma that is compatible with the zircon SHRIMP age. However, petrological studies show that there was significant garnet growth in the Western Iratsu eclogite before eclogite facies metamorphism, and the early core growth is associated with a strong concentration of Lu. Pre-eclogite facies garnet (Grt1) includes epidote–amphibolite facies parageneses equilibrated at 550–650 °C and ∼10 kbar, and this is overgrown by prograde eclogite facies garnet (Grt2). The Lu–Hf age of c.  116 Ma is strongly skewed to the isotopic composition of Grt1 and is interpreted to reflect the age of the pre-eclogite phase. The considerable time gap ( c.  27 Myr) between the two Lu–Hf ages suggests they may be related to separate tectonic events or distinct phases in the evolution of the Sanbagawa subduction zone.     

利用历史有感地震目录（M≥3（1／2））研究华北地区地震活动性特征

对新编的华北地区历史有感地震目录（３（１／２）≤Ｍ＜４（１／２））的精度和可信度进行了讨论。认为该地震目录从１４８４年后的记载率较高，它的发震时间、震中位置和震级的精度基本可以满足研究历史地震活动性的需要。它与中国地震目录（Ｍ≥４（３／４））比较，补充了相当数量的３（１／２）≤Ｍ≤４（１／２）的地震。利用历史有感地震目录分析了华北北部部分６级以上的历史地震，结果表明，这些地震在强震发生前具有明显的空区、条带、地震活动性增强、平静等前兆特征，同时，也显示了某些强＊发生前的前震活动和主震之后起伏的强余震活动     

Kuiper带小天体动力演化

Kuiper带是指太阳系内位于离太阳 30～ 50AU一个区域。 1 992年该区域陆续发现了一群半径在几十到几百公里的小天体。这些小天体在Kuiper带的分布是极其不均匀的。Kuiper带小天体的发现对人们认识太阳系的形成与演化有重要的意义。本文回顾了近年来国际上在Kuiper带小天体动力演化方面的研究 ,着重分析了目前国际上几种用以解释其非均匀分布的动力学机制 ,并提出目前该领域的一些尚未解决的问题。     

南海北缘北东东向构造活动性研究

从地形地貌特征、重磁地球物理场、深部构造与断裂构造以及地震活动、震源机制等多方面论述北东东向构造是南海北缘的主要活动构造。对于长期以来认为新华夏系北东向构造是该区主要活动构造的观点来说，这是一种新的学术思想。     

流褶层及韧变带研究

流褶层与韧变带是地壳拉伸变形，顺层固态流变作用下的产物。流褶层是以原始层理为变形面或再经递进变形的褶皱变形岩层或岩石共生组合层位。韧变带具明显的层控性，受岩石成分和应变程度控制，不同环境和不同成分岩石的韧变带具有相异的组合型式和变形机制，井具有一定的递变规律。流褶层和韧变带可分属不同层位，但流褶层可实现向韧变带的转化。     

康古尔塔格缝合带的变形机制

北天山东段康古尔塔格带是晚古生代塔里木板块和准噶尔板块碰撞的结果。它是一条复杂的、强烈的高应变带．并具有独特的变形机制、应变序列以及构造变形。本文运用构造－地层研究方法对该碰撞带的构造特征加以分析和研究。     

Tidal Breakup of Comets

In the context of the survival of periodic comets of different origins, rotational breakup and tidal disruption could be important, especially of the short period comets injected from the Kuiper belt. This is because long-period comets from the distant Oort cloud tend to be subject to thermal stress and volatile 'explosion' far more severely. A simple calculation using the Öpik method of random planetary close encounters was performed to estimate the probability of tidal disruption of comets and scattered Kuiper belt objects (SKBOs) during their orbital migration. It was found that a large fraction of the short period comets and SKBOs might have been internally fragmented by single or multiple close encounters with the outer planets.     

The Statistical Analysis of Migration of Strong Earthquakes-Taking the North China Region as an Example

The migration of strong earthquakes is an important research topic because the migration phenomena reflect partly the seismic mechanism and involve the prediction of tendency of seismic activity. Research on migration of strong earthquakes has mostly focused on finding the phenomena. Some attempts on getting regularity were comparatively subjective. This paper suggests that there should be indices of migration in earthquake dataset and the indexes should have statistical meaning if there is regularity in the migration of strong earthquakes. In this study, three derivative attributes of migration, i.e., migration orientation, migration distance and migration time interval, were statistically analyzed. Results in the North China region show that the migration of strong earthquakes has statistical meaning. There is a dominant migration orientation (W by S to E by N), a dominant distance (≤100km and on the confines of 300～700km), and a dominant time interval (≤1a and on the confines of 3～4a). The results also show that the migration will differ slightly with different magnitude range or earthquake activity phase.