Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.     

西北太平洋深海海山的一种蛇尾新记录

Ophioleila elegans是一种非常少见的蛇尾。2014年大洋35航次中利用“蛟龙”号载人潜器在西北太平洋麦哲伦海山链的采薇平定海山水深1660m处采集到2株该种标本。该种首次发现于夏威夷海山相似的生境当中，本次采集到的样品是继首次发现之后的再次公开报道。本文中对该种的形态学特征，如腕部骨骼等，进行了更加详细的研究，同时基于COI序列进行系统发育分析。形态和系统发育分析的结果都表明，Ophioleila属与辐蛇尾科更加接近。     

The bivalve Lembulus bicuspidatus may enhance denitrification in shelf sediment at the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone

We collected living individuals of the bivalve Lembulus bicuspidatus, which shows an unusual preference for the oxygen-deficient habitat found at the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone of the southeastern Atlantic. With a series of incubation experiments with ¹⁵N-labelled nitrate as a tracer in combination with membrane-inlet mass spectrometry, we studied the potential contribution of L. bicuspidatus to nitrate reduction in the upper sediment layer. Our preliminary results suggest that L. bicuspidatus enhances nitrate reduction if the oxygen concentration is sufficiently low. The Lembulus-mediated nitrate reduction rate is then similar to the rate of microbial nitrate reduction in the surrounding sediment.     

1970-2016年青藏高原岗扎日冰川变化与物质平衡遥感监测研究

可可西里处于青藏高原腹地,是青藏高原自然环境的交接与过渡地带。近年来该区域冰川物质平衡可能有从西向东由正转负的趋势,但是其过渡地带岗扎日地区冰川状态未知。本研究利用地形图、SRTM、ASTER和Landsat等资料分析了岗扎日地区冰川面积变化和物质平衡变化,并对可可西里地区冰川变化空间规律进行了探讨,结果表明：①1970-2016年岗扎日冰川总面积年均缩小率为0.08±0.02%。2006年后冰川退缩趋势减缓。②1970-2012年岗扎日冰川平均减薄-8.64±0.30 m,体积减少1.45±0.06 km³,平均物质平衡为-0.21±0.01 m w.e. a^-1。冰川物质平衡趋势由负转正（1970-1999年：-0.34±0.01 m w.e. a^-1;1999-2012：0.16±0.02 w.e. a^-1）。③东南、南、西南朝向作为迎风坡,1970年以来其冰川物质亏损较小,1999-2012年呈现强烈的正平衡。冰川面积变化滞后于物质平衡变化,东朝向和东南朝向冰川面积缩小率最大,主要是因为冰川冰舌较长,末端所处的海拔较低。④气温升高是岗扎日冰川1970-1999年呈现负物质平衡状态的主因,降水增多是1999-2012年正平衡状态的主因。⑤可可西里地区冰川1970s以来面积年均缩小率从西向东不断增大、物质平衡下降,与西风环流和季风环流相关,但局地气候也影响冰川变化和物质平衡。     

2000—2015 年伊犁河谷植被覆盖时空变化特征

利用 2000—2015 年的 EOS／MODIS 数据，采用趋势分析、Hurst 指数、变异系数法对伊犁河 谷植被时空变化及未来趋势进行分析，结果显示：空间分布上，伊犁河谷植被覆盖度呈北部、南部、 东部偏高，西部、中部偏低的分布特征；时间变化上，2000—2015 年，伊犁河谷植被覆盖度波动减 小，减速为 6.25%·(10 a)^-1；区域分布上，伊犁河谷植被表现为低波动变化，波动程度中等以及下占 73.16%，波动程度高的区域占 26.84%。未来预测表明，伊犁河谷植被覆盖呈退化趋势，其中，持续 退化的面积占 57.55%，持续改善的面积占 13.51%。     

基于重力测点和段差变化的前郭5.8级震群研究与三维反演

利用东北地区近几年流动重力观测数据，分析前郭5.8级震群周边重力点值的时序变化特征，并基于重力段差变化对东北地区整体和局部重力变化引入能够反映异常显著性程度的指标量G和C值，最后对前郭5.8级震群前的重力场动态变化作三维密度反演。结果表明：1）前郭5.8级震群发震构造两侧的局部重力变化具有较明显的差异性，其变化趋势可作为识别构造活化或解耦运动的标志；2）显著性指标量G和C值能够为地震重力前兆的定量描述提供新思路；3）震前重力变化的反演结果显示地震发生在质量运移的过渡区域，垂向反演结果对本次地震的震源深度有一定的揭示意义。     

贵州夜郎湖表层水体地球化学昼夜变化及其影响因素

为探究岩溶水库水文地球化学行为过程,对贵州普定夜郎湖表层水体进行了为期3 d的高分辨率昼夜监测。结果表明：1）多变的天气和水文条件叠加导致水体离子指标昼夜变化不显著,规律性较差。而水温、DO、pH值、SpC、SIc、pCO₂等常规理化指标受水温变化和生物作用表现出明显的昼夜波动。2）利用亨利常数和主成分分析,得到温度变化、生物作用、人类活动、水库的蓄水与放水对夜郎湖水库水文地球化学特征变化的贡献率分别为21.66%、17.28%、14.08%和10.22%,说明作用于水库水文地球化学行为的因子具有多元性。3）δ ¹⁸O表现出与DO一致的波动趋势,即白天上升,晚上下降,反映在短时间尺度上,氢氧稳定同位素变化受控于生物过程（主要是呼吸作用过程）;而对比水库水体和大气降水的d-excess（d值）发现,水库水体的d值（8.21‰）显著偏低于当地大气降水的d值（9.64‰）,说明在长时间尺度上,主要受蒸发效应引起的不平衡分馏影响。     

Muon density measurements with the KASCADE central detector

Frequency distributions of local muon densities in high-energy extensive air showers (EAS) are presented as signature of the primary cosmic ray energy spectrum in the knee region. Together with the gross shower variables like shower core position, angle of incidence, and the shower sizes, the KASCADE experiment is able to measure local muon densities for two different muon energy thresholds. The spectra have been reconstructed for various core distances, as well as for particular subsamples, classified on the basis of the shower size ratio N_μ/N_e. The measured density spectra of the total sample exhibit clear kinks reflecting the knee of the primary energy spectrum. While relatively sharp changes of the slopes are observed in the spectrum of EAS with small values of the shower size ratio, no such feature is detected at EAS of large N_μ/N_e ratio in the energy range of 1–10 PeV. Comparing the spectra for various thresholds and core distances with detailed Monte Carlo simulations the validity of EAS simulations is discussed.     

关于高速滑坡的几个问题

高速滑坡问题是当前工程地质和环境地质学界极为关注的问题。本文对诸如滑体高速滑动所对应的时空界限、滑体滑动过程所产生的热效应以及空气浮托力等高速滑坡产生机制问题进行了初步探讨。     

Palaeointensity In the Pelagic Realm: Marine Sediment Data Compared With Archaeomagnetic and Lake Sediment Records

Summary. Four box cores collected from the Ontong—Java plateau during the Eurydice expedition have been used to make relative geomagnetic palaeo-intensity measurements. Rock magnetic measurements on the sediments show that they are characterized by a uniform magnetic mineralogy, and that they are suitable for relative intensity estimates. These are obtained by normalizing the NRM by an ARM imparted in a low DC bias field. the palaeoceanographic event known as the preservation spike is used to establish a crude time-scale for the record so that it may be compared with other data from the same region, and also with global palaeointensity estimates. the marine sediment data are quite similar to Australian intensity data from lake sediments and archaeomagnetic sources, but as might be expected exhibit some obvious differences from the global record.