Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.     

The Upper Devonian Kellwasser event recorded in a regressive sequence from inner shelf to lagoonal pond,Catalan Coastal Ranges,Spain

This study, conducted in the Catalan Coastal Ranges, north‐east Spain, describes the Upper Devonian Kellwasser event in a shallowing‐upward sequence of black shales, siltstones and quartz arenites. This sequence was deposited in a progradational and regressive coastal system where the sedimentary environment evolved from the inner shelf to a lagoonal pond located landward of the shoreline. Three anomalous succeeding steps have been identified by geochemical analysis. The first one, detected on the inner shelf, was characterized by oxygen depletion and high organic productivity. The second, detected in the nearshore, was caused by hydrothermal activity occurring under normal oxic conditions. The third and most intense step was identified in the muds of the lagoonal pond and has been linked to strong anoxic conditions, elevated clastic input derived from changes in the weathering regime at the source area and moderate hydrothermal activity. The Kellwasser event is thus defined in the study area as stepwise and multi‐causal. This is the first time that the Kellwasser event has been identified in a sedimentary environment behind the shoreline. It is also the first time that it has been reported in the Catalan Coastal Ranges.     

The Latest Research Progress on El Nino

Cold water in the deep Pacific can be drawn up to the surface (or west warm water drifts eastwards ) because strong tide increases the mixing of seawater both in vertical and horizontal. In this way greenhouse effect is decreased or increased by means of absorbing (or releasing) CO2. Therefore, La Nina cold event (or El Nino warm event) may occur,which is caused by wanning - up or cooling - down air above the ocean. Volcanic action at sea bottom is also controlled by strong tide.     

含有集约束向量极值问题的最优性条件

在序线性拓扑空间里研究了含有集约束向量极值问题的最优性条件,并建立了充分性和必要性条件.     

Decoupling of stalagmite-derived Asian summer monsoon records from North Atlantic temperature change during marine oxygen isotope stage 5d

The Asian monsoon is an important component of the global climate system. Seasonal variations in wind, rainfall, and temperature associated with the Asian monsoon systems affect a vast expanse of tropical and subtropical Asia. Speleothem-derived summer monsoon variation in East Asia was previously found to be closely associated with millennial-scale change in temperature in the North Atlantic region between 75 and 10 ka. New evidence recovered from East Asia, however, suggests that the teleconnection between summer monsoon in East Asia and temperature change in the North Atlantic region may have significantly reduced during 120 to ~ 110 ka, a period directly after the full last interglaciation and corresponding roughly to marine oxygen isotope stage 5d. This reduction may be due to the low ice volume in the North Hemisphere at that time, which makes the millennial-scale change in temperature in the North Atlantic region less effective in influencing the Asian summer monsoon. This is important for investigating the mechanisms controlling the Asian summer monsoon and the paleoclimatic teleconnection between East Asia and the North Atlantic region, and for predicting monsoon-associated precipitation in East Asia under a global-warming trend.     

Poisson-Logistic二元复合极值模型在平台甲板标高设计中的应用

考虑到平台所在海区台风出现的频次及其诱发之风、浪、潮、流极端海况联合出现的概率特性，本文推导出Poisson—Logistic二元复合极值模式，并以平台甲板标高进行实例计算。新模式增加了概率模型的物理内涵，解决了Logistic模型阈值选取的任意性。对海洋工程极端海况荷载组合预测具有广泛的应用前景。     

Long-Period Distribution of Wave Heights and Its Application

This paper reveals that the long-period statistic distribution of the characteristic heights of deep-water waves assumes the lognormal distribution. Thereafter, the largest wave-height which may occur in the service life of coastal structures is derived in this paper.     

渤海南部海域年极值波浪和设计波浪的特征研究

本文用统计计算和后报方法，获得了本海域不同海区多年年极值波高（Ｈ１／１０）资料。用Ｐ－Ⅲ型和短期测波资料频率分析方法，估算了各海区的设计波高，并依据文献［３］计算出对应的平均周期。用Ｋｏｌｍｏｇｏｒｏｆｆ适合度方法检验所得的结果表明，依Ｐ－Ⅲ型方法拟配的理论频率曲线与经验点十分吻合，从而确定了本海域不同海区最佳的设计波浪。分析本海域年极值波浪的基本特征表明，本海域除了渤海湾北部海区以外，主浪向一般为ＮＮＥ向，渤海海峡区的年极值波高和设计波高均为最大，而向莱州湾及渤海湾沿岸海区逐渐减小；在沿岸海区，由龙口至黄河口一带的极值波高较大。     

东亚和东南亚第四系时间界面的建议

在东亚和东南亚第四系对比中,有关的几条界限,本文建议如后。采用Globorotalia truncatulinoides的初现位作为本区海相第四系的下界,其位置大致在古地磁Olduvai亚时的下界,时间约为距今1.9Ma。在南中国海、东海及沿岸地区,发现了以G.truncatulinoides的初现位为代表的一系列有意义的生物事件,如Pulleniatina finalis的初现位,Globigerinoides obliquus和Globoquadrina altispira的灭绝位,以及Globorotalia menardii和Pulleniatina obliquloculata壳体旋向的变化。此界限在东亚和东南亚也是相当稳定的。在陆相地层中,以泥河湾组为代表,狭义的泥河湾动物群(相当于晚维拉方动物群)所在地层的底界,其古地磁位置为Olduvai亚时的底界。以此作为陆相第四系的下界,与上述海相第四系底界一致。 以古地磁布容/松山界线作为中更新世和早更新世的界限,其年代为0.73MaB.P.。中国中更新世的标准地层周口店组,其底界恰为布容/松山的转换面,北京猿人的年代为0.60—0.23MaB.P.。在洛川黄土剖面上,布容/松山界线为古土壤S_7的底界。雷琼地区中更新统下部的北海组的底界也是布容/松山界线,所产的玻璃陨石的裂变径迹年龄为0.687—0.733MaB.P.。在黄海,布容/松山界线是第Ⅶ海侵层的顶界。通过岩石地层标志,以及动物群、古人     

人工鱼礁工程的风险评估

对台风暴潮影响下的嵊泗海域人工鱼礁工程做了风险评估,考虑了台风暴潮中出现的大浪和风暴潮减水对鱼礁联合作用的危害。风险评估分为危险灾害识别、失效概率计算、失效后果评估、风险准则评定和风险管理决策几个主要的步骤。在失效概率的计算中采用基于应用设计点的重点抽样法随机模拟的技术,这一随机模拟技术可以广泛的应用与海洋工程结构的风险评估当中。