黑子磁流体静力学的一个模型

本文对Ｏｓｈｅｒｏｖｉｃｈ的黑子返回磁通量模型作了适当的修改，使用黑子中心作为边界条件，用五种观测结果，导出了理论模型所需的五个主要参量，用半经验方法求得了黑子静力学模型的磁场、压力和温度等物理量．将此模型应用于一个中等大小的圆形对称黑子，可得到一个特解，结果发现我们的模型既能满足黑子的磁性质，同时又能满足合理的热力学量分布．     

A study on the reference frame consistency in recent Earth gravitational models

All gravity field functionals obtained from an Earth gravitational model (EGM) depend on the underlying terrestrial reference frame (TRF), with respect to which the EGM’s spherical harmonic coefficients refer to. In order to maintain a coherent framework for the comparison of current and future EGMs, it is thus important to investigate the consistency of their inherent TRFs, especially when their use is intended for high precision studies. Following the methodology described in an earlier paper by Kleusberg (1980), the similarity transformation parameters between the associated reference frames for several EGMs (including the most recent CHAMP/GRACE models at the time of writing this paper) are estimated in the present study. Specifically, the differences between the spherical harmonic coefficients for various pairs of EGMs are parameterized through a 3D-similarity spatial transformation model that relates their underlying TRFs. From the least-squares adjustment of such a parametric model, the origin, orientation and scale stability between the EGMs’ reference frames can be identified by estimating their corresponding translation, rotation and scale factor parameters. Various aspects of the estimation procedure and its results are highlighted in the paper, including data weighting schemes, the sensitivity of the results with respect to the selected harmonic spectral band, the correlation structure and precision level of the estimated transformation parameters, the effect of the estimated differences of the EGMs’ reference frames on their height anomaly signal, and the overall feasibility of Kleusberg’s formulae for the assessment of TRF inconsistencies among global geopotential models.     

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES OF WATER AND LAND RESOURCES IN THE HEXI REGION,CHINA

ＤＥＶＥＬＯＰＭＥＮＴＳＴＲＡＴＥＧＩＥＳＯＦＷＡＴＥＲＡＮＤＬＡＮＤＲＥＳＯＵＲＣＥＳＩＮＴＨＥＨＥＸＩＲＥＧＩＯＮ，ＣＨＩＮＡ肖洪浪，高前兆，李福兴ＤＥＶＥＬＯＰＭＥＮＴＳＴＲＡＴＥＧＩＥＳＯＦＷＡＴＥＲＡＮＤＬＡＮＤＲＥＳＯＵＲＣＥＳＩＮＴＨＥ...     

Impact of Satellite Altimetry on Simulations of Sea Level Variability by an Indian Ocean Model

This article describes the impact of satellite altimeter data on the simulations of sea level variability (SLV) by a nonlinear reduced gravity model of the entire Indian Ocean. The model has been forced by 6-hourly analyzed wind stress data containing SSM/I observations and has been able to produce realistic circulation features. However, SLV values observed by Topex/Poseidon altimeter do not fit these simulations because of imperfect initial data. Hence an attempt has been made to initialize the model using altimeter data. The initialized model-generated SLVvalues have been compared with SLV derived by altimeter for monsoon as well as nonmonsoon months of 1996. Experimental runs have been performed for 10 days, 20 days, and one month. It has been found that the initialized model results on the final day of these experiments are in very good agreement with altimeter data of the same day. It is thus possible, in principle, to hindcast and forecast sea level variations in the time scale of 10 days to one month with the availability of good quality wind data for forcing the model and altimeter observations of sea level for initializing it.     

海冰业务化预报基础研究进展

本文概述了我国近年来在海冰预报基础研究方面的工作进展情况,着重介绍了在我国海冰的气候成因、海冰分布特征和变化规律等方面的研究成果.     

一种短期气候预测集成技术的应用研究

以递归正权综合决策方案为基础，结合实际情况，首先对多种预报方法进行筛选，选取预报效果较好并且较为稳定的几种方法参与集成，并将集成结果写成Micaps数据格式，最终以图形方式显示出来。评分结果表明：该集成方法对温度预报和灾害指数预报较权重平均集成法效果好；而对月雨量预报和季度雨量、温度预报则与权重平均方法相当；但是对季度雨量、温度预报来说，集成后预测精度有明显提高。同时，将集成结果通过Micaps工作平台以图形方式显示，不仅客观、定量，而且更一目了然．     

On Extending The Flux-Profile Similarity Theory To Include Quasi-Homogeneous Conditions In The Marine Atmospheric Surface Layer

In order to apply Monin–Obukhov similarity theory to estimatethe profiles of mean quantities and surface fluxes from bulk meteorological parameters, the assumptions of homogeneityand stationarity must be valid. Unfortunately, in coastal zones as well as many other regions of interest, theseassumptions are often violated. In this paper, an extension to the theory is presented that considers systematically varyingstate variables. Along-wind variations of windspeed, atmospheric stratification, and roughness are examined with respectto their relative importance to momentum flux divergence, and the drag coefficient is shown to be systematicallylower in coastal zones. For profiles of scalars, an analysis of the set of quasi-homogeneous terms is only speculated,and the relative importance for the terms will strongly depend on which scalar is of interest.     

驻马店市春播期降水分析与趋势预报

利用1959－2001年春播期（3－4月）驻马店月降水资料，分析了春播期降水气候规律。找出与3－4月降水相关性好的因子，建立3，4月降水趋势预报方程。     

桂东流源地区地球化学特征及找矿预测

通过对桂东县流源地区的成矿规律与地球化学特征进行了分析．区内矿脉主要受NE向断裂控制，地球化学异常有效地反映了各矿床点的分布．根据地球化学异常特征及控矿规律，分析了异常区的预测矿种及找矿意义，预测了两个多金属矿远景区，为区内找矿指明了方向．     

灾害预报与鸡西煤矿瓦斯爆炸事件

2002年上半年,伴随着厄尔尼诺现象的日益加剧,全球性重大自然灾害频繁发生.6月20日发生在中国黑龙江省鸡西煤矿的瓦斯爆炸事件和6月22日发生在伊朗的强烈地震,时间恰逢月亮近地潮的6月19日和太阳潮半日形变最大值的夏至的6月21日附近,是地球形变和排气较强烈的时段.据国内外有关资料,月球与地球发震有关系的重要条件是“近地点兼朔、望”以及各大行星特定位置的配合,张元东称之为“特殊天象组合期”[1];郭增建等提出,月亮赤纬角或太阳黄赤交角最大时地球形变和排气最强烈[2～5].在此期间,中国各种大的突发性灾难,如空难、海难、火车事故、矿…