Heat Flow Distribution and Thermal Mechanism Analysis of the Gonghe Basin based on Gravity and Magnetic Methods

Geothermal resource is indispensable as a clean, renewable, stable and cheap resource. Nowadays in China, the Gonghe Basin, located in northeastern Qinghai Province, has been thought to be a promising geothermal area. To explore geothermal energy potential in and around the Gonghe Basin, geophysical means including magnetic and gravity methods were used to plot distribution. Firstly, we inversed Moho depth and Curie point depth in and around the basin using gravity and magnetic data, respectively, through an improved Parker–Oldenburg algorithm. Secondly, seven different thermal models were established, considering radiogenic heat, basement depth, anomalous heat source and simulated corresponding temperature field and heat flow. These were analyzed numerically and we found the high heat flow in the Gonghe Basin co-acted with radiogenic heat, an anomalous heat source and conductive heat. The distribution of seismic activities indicates that the Langshan–Wuwei–Gonghe Fault might have provided channels for transporting heat effectively.     

Population,urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

The countries throughout the Belt and Road region account for more than 60% of the world's population and half of the global economy. Future changes in this area will have significant influences on the global economic growth, industrial structure and resource allocation. In this study, the proportion of the urban population to the total population and the gross domestic product were used to represent the levels of urbanization and economic development, respectively. The population, urbanization and economic levels of the Belt and Road countries for 2020–2050 were projected under the framework of the IPCC's shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), and the following conclusions are drawn.(1) The population, urbanization and economic levels in the Belt and Road region will likely increase under all five pathways. The population will increase by 2%–8%/10 a during 2020–2050 and reach 5.0–6.0 billion in 2050. Meanwhile, the urbanization rate will increase by 1.4%–7.5%/10 a and reach 49%–75%. The GDP will increase by 17%–34%/10 a and reach 134–243 trillion USD.(2) Large differences will appear under different scenarios. The SSP1 and SSP5 pathways demonstrate relatively high urbanization and economic levels, but the population size is comparatively smaller; SSP3 shows the opposite trend. Meanwhile, the economy develops slowly under SSP4, but it has a relatively high urbanization level, while SSP2 exhibits an intermediate trend.(3) In 2050, the population will increase relative to 2016 in most countries, and population size in the fastest growing country in Central Asia and the Middle East countries will be more than double. Urbanization will develop rapidly in South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, and will increase by more than 150% in the fastest growing countries. The economy will grow fastest in South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia, and increase by more than 10 times in some counties with rapid economic development.     

Light mode and dark mode: Which one is suitable when using public-facing web maps? An experimental evaluation using eye-tracking

Dark maps, which are also called dark modes or dark themes, have gained popularity, but their usability has not been experimentally evaluated. This article presents a user experiment that uses eye-tracking to assess the usability of dark and light maps. Here, two widely used web maps, Google Maps and Gaode Maps, are selected at the street and city scales. Eight map-use tasks are designed and cover four operations (identify, compare, rank, and associate) with space-alone and attributes-in-space distinctions. Four pairs of map-use tasks (light-during-the-day, dark-during-the-day, dark-at-night, and light-at-night) are examined from three aspects: effectiveness, efficiency, and cognitive load. The results provide preliminary evidence that the light-during-the-day performance is generally the best in most cases, followed by the dark-at-night performance; the dark-during-the-day performance is the worst in all cases, followed by the light-at-night performance, which suggests that aligning the map design with the environment (i.e., lighting environment) is critical for better communication. The light-during-the-day performance is the best for space-alone tasks, and the dark-at-night performance is the best for attributes-in-space tasks. Our investigation also indicates that dark maps are far less favored in practice, which suggests that users' preference for using the dark mode of public-facing web maps needs to be shaped. Since light and dark maps are associated with photopic and scotopic vision, respectively, the results indicate the need for future studies on how to leverage scotopic vision to design better dark maps.     

阿拉善高原近60年的气候变化

阿拉善高原处于季风边缘区,生态环境极其脆弱,对气候干湿变化的响应极为敏感。利用近60a的逐月气温和降水量资料,采用非参数Mann-Kendall和Mann-whitney阶段性转换检验方法,分析了其变化趋势。结果表明,研究区气温在1988年前后发生突变,在该跃点后的19882010年的平均气温比19551987年要高1℃以上,有明显的增温趋势。而年降水量则无明显的增加趋势,尽管部分站点在1991年前后有微弱的增加迹象,但是区域尺度的降水突变还不存在,气候仍以暖干化为主,暂不能得出气候向暖湿转变的结论。     

IPCC AR5中社会经济新情景 (SSPs) 研究的最新进展

2006年,IPCC成立专门的气候变化影响评估情景工作组,在影响、适应和脆弱性3个研究领域进行评估方法的整合,发展了新的情景框架,特别是为了更好地反映社会经济发展与气候情景的关联,IPCC在典型浓度路径(RCPs)的基础上于2010年发布了新的社会经济情景——共享社会经济路径     

Temporal-spatial oceanic variation in relation with the three typical Kuroshio paths south of Japan

Empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis was applied to a 50-year long time series of monthly mean positions of the Kuroshio path south of Japan from a regional reanalysis. Three leading EOF modes characterize the contributions from three typical paths of the Kuroshio meander: the typical large meander path, the offshore nonlarge meander path, and the nearshore non-large meander path, respectively. Accordingly, the spatial variation characteristics of oceanic anomaly fields can be depicted by...     

Spatio-temporal variation in China’s climatic seasons from 1951 to 2017

In this paper,meteorological industry standard,daily mean temperature,and an improved multiple regression model are used to calculate China's climatic seasons,not only to help understand their spatio-temporal distribution,but also to provide a reference for China's climatic regionalization and crop production.It is found that the improved multiple regression model can accurately show the spatial distribution of climatic seasons.The main results are as follows.There are four climatic seasonal regions in China,namely,the perennial-winter,no-winter,no-summer and discernible regions,and their ranges basically remained stable from 1951 to 2017.The cumulative anomaly curve of the four climatic seasonal regions clarifies that the trend of China's climatic seasonal regions turned in 1994,after which the area of the perennial-winter and no-summer regions narrowed and the no-winter and discernible regions expanded.The number of sites with significantly reduced winter duration is the largest,followed by the number of sites with increased summer duration,and the number of sites with large changes in spring and autumn is the least.Spring advances and autumn is postponed due to the shortened winter and lengthened summer durations.Sites with significant change in seasonal duration are mainly distributed in Northwest China,the Sichuan Basin,the Huanghe-Huaihe-Haihe(Huang-Huai-Hai) Plain,the Northeast China Plain,and the Southeast Coast.     

全球升温控制在1.5℃和2.0℃时中国分省人口格局

《巴黎协定》正式生效, 为国际社会应对气候变化提出新的机遇与挑战,也必将对中国人口、资源和环境带来重要影响。本文结合IPCC发布的可持续发展（SSP1)、中度发展（SSP2)、局部或不一致发展（SSP3)、不均衡发展（SSP4)、常规发展（SSP5）5种共享社会经济路径,以2010年中国第六次人口普查数据为基准,综合考虑人口现状和发展政策设定不同发展路径下各省人口模型的相关参数,在全球升温控制在1.5℃和2.0℃时,对比研究中国和各省分年龄、性别、教育水平的人口演变和分布特征。结果表明：(1)全球升温1.5℃时,SSP1和SSP4路径下总人口较2010年增加0.44亿人;升温2.0℃时,SSP2和SSP3路径下较2010年分别增加0.23亿和0.67亿人,SSP5路径下减少约0.12亿人。5种路径下中国人口将在2025-2035年达到峰值,人口峰值正处于全球升温1.5℃期间。(2)全球升温1.5℃时,除了东北地区和四川、安徽省外,多数省（市）人口均较2010年有所增加;升温2.0℃时,西北、西南和以东南沿海地区为主的发达省份保持较高的人口增量,其他地区人口开始呈减少趋势。(3)在全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃期间,大部分省份人口达到峰值,其中SSP3路径下广西人口最多,可达1.13亿,其他路径下广东省人口最多,达1.53亿。(4)未来中国65岁以上老龄人口比重呈现东北高、西南低的分布特征。与全球升温1.5℃相比,升温2.0℃时的老龄化趋势进一步加重,东北地区老龄化问题最严重。采用绿色和可持续发展路径,全球升温控制在2.0℃之内是中国社会经济发展的科学选择。     

IPCC共享社会经济路径下中国和分省人口变化预估

基于2010年第六次中国人口普查数据,采用IPCC发布的可持续发展(SSP1)、中度发展(SSP2)、局部或不一致发展(SSP3)、不均衡发展(SSP4)、常规发展(SSP5)这5种共享社会经济路径,率定人口-发展-环境分析(PDE)模型中的人口生育率、死亡率、迁移率、教育水平等参数,对2011-2100年中国和31个省(区/市)人口变化进行预估。结果表明：1) 不同SSP路径下,中国人口均呈先增加后减少的趋势,在高气候变化挑战的SSP3路径下人口最多,于2035年达到峰值,约14.27亿;在以适应挑战为主的SSP4路径下,人口出现最小值7.02亿。2) SSP1、SSP4和SSP5路径下人均寿命长,人口老龄化严重,其中SSP1和SSP5路径下人均教育水平高,到2100年教育水平在大学以上人口约占总人口的60%;SSP2路径下各年龄段分布比较均衡;SSP3路径下新生人口数量较多,劳动力充足,但教育水平较低。3) 到2100年,SPP3路径下广西人口呈现最大值1.13亿,在其他路径下广东人口最多,达1.29亿。     

基于速度分析的探地雷达阻抗介电常数反演

阻抗反演是利用波阻抗与介电常数关系开展地下介质参数估计的重要技术,在探地雷达以及叠后地震资料解释中具有广泛的应用。常规阻抗反演需要钻孔或测井曲线作为约束项,约束项信息直接影响阻抗反演的估计精度。在缺少钻孔数据的实际应用中,如何开展探地雷达阻抗反演是该方法研究的重要内容之一。基于上述问题,本文提出了基于速度分析的探地雷达阻抗反演方法。其基本思想是基于多偏移距雷达数据开展速度谱分析和Dix反演,以获得不同深度的速度信息作为阻抗反演的约束项;同时,采用K-means方法自动拾取速度谱信息,大大降低了常规人工拾取误差,提高了计算效率。通过典型随机土壤介质模型,验证了本文方法在无钻孔条件下仍然可以获得较好的介电常数估计结果,并测试噪声适应能力强。最后通过美国密歇根州Wurtsmith AFB,in Oscoda区域的探地雷达数据测试了本文提出方法在探地雷达实测数据参数估计中具有较好的应用效果。