Resource depletion,peak minerals and the implications for sustainable resource management

Today's global society is economically, socially and culturally dependent on minerals and metals. While metals are recyclable, terrestrial mineral deposits are by definition ‘non-renewable’ over human timescales and their stocks are thus finite. This raises the spectre of ‘peak minerals’ – the time at which production from terrestrial ores can no longer rise to meet demand and where a maximum (peak) production occurs. Peak minerals prompts a focus on the way minerals can be sustainably used in the future to ensure the services they provide to global society can be maintained.As peak minerals approaches (and is passed in some cases), understanding and monitoring the dynamics of primary mineral production, recycling and dematerialisation, in the context of national and global discussions about mineral resources demand and the money earned from their sale, will become essential for informing and establishing mechanisms for sustainable mineral governance and use efficiency into the future. Taking a cross-scale approach, this paper explores the economic and productivity impacts of peak minerals, and how changes in the mineral production profile are influenced not only by technological and scarcity factors, but also by environmental and social constraints. Specifically we examine the impacts of peak minerals in Australia, a major global minerals supplier, and the consequences for the Asia-Pacific region, a major destination for Australia's minerals.This research has profound implications for local and regional/global sustainability of mineral and metal use. The focus on services is useful for encouraging discussion of transitions in how such services can be provided in a future more sustainable economy, when mineral availability is constrained. The research also begins to address the question of how we approach the development of strategies to maximise returns from mineral wealth over generations.     

Correction to: Projection of Iron Ore Production

Natural Resources Research - The original version of this article unfortunately contained an error in Equation 3.     

Peak Minerals: Theoretical Foundations and Practical Application

This article reviews the theoretical foundations for the concept of peak minerals; drawing on similarities and differences with peak oil as modelled using Hubbert style curves. Whilst several studies have applied peak modelling to selected minerals, discussion of the appropriateness of using Hubbert style curves in the minerals context remains largely unexplored. Our discussion focuses on a comparison between oil and minerals, on the key variables: rates of discovery, estimates of ultimately recoverable resources and demand and production trends. With respect to minerals, there are several obstacles which complicate the application of Hubbert style curves to the prediction of future mineral production, including the lack of accurate discovery data, the effect of uncertain reserve estimates, and varying ore quality and quantity. Another notable difference is that while oil is often combusted during use, minerals are used to make metals which are inherently recyclable. Notwithstanding, by using a range of estimates of resources and/or reserves, a period of time can be identified which indicates when a peak in minerals production may occur. This information may then be used to plan for a transition from using a potentially constrained resource, to using substitutes if available, or to reducing demand for that mineral in society.