基于模型流的资源环境模型复合语言与应用

资源环境领域的研究对象常被抽象为若干子模型复合而成的复杂模型,如何有效地集成这些子模型成为资源环境模型集成的主要内容。随着各种地学相关问题的日益复杂和多样化,传统的建模语言与友好易用的图形建模等集成建模方式已无法满足大规模高复杂的模型构建需求。本文在已有的相关理论基础上,针对复合模型构建的灵活性和复杂性之间的矛盾,将模型复合模式的本质抽象化,提出资源环境"模型流"的形式化语言描述,实现了模型流建模环境。应用实例表明,基于模型流的模型构建方式采用简洁的符号表示,避免了繁琐的图形构建环节,可快速灵活地构建高复杂度模型。模型流的提出为模型复合的调度性能优化和智能自动化集成等进一步的研究奠定了基础。     

全球变化下中国南海诸岛珊瑚礁热压力临时避难所研究

选取第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）模式中较适宜于南海海表面温度（SST）模拟的加拿大地球系统模式(CanESM2),并获取其在IPCC RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5温室气体排放情景下模拟的2006-2100年南海SST数据。基于南海诸岛珊瑚礁和线性回归方法分析了RCPs情景下的珊瑚礁区夏季SST上升趋势,并基于热周指数(DHW, Degree Heating Weeks)及年白化时间指数分析了RCPs情景下的南海诸岛珊瑚礁热压力临时避难所,主要得出以下结论：① RCPs情景下,明显变暖的珊瑚礁海域均为南沙群岛;② 年白化时间不晚于全球珊瑚礁平均年白化时间的珊瑚礁像元占南海诸岛总珊瑚礁像元的比例,在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下分别为17%、29%和42%,均分布在南沙群岛;③ RCPs情景下,较高纬度的西沙群岛、中沙群岛和南沙群岛北部为未来南海诸岛珊瑚礁热压力临时避难所。     

1951-2010年中国季平均降水高精度曲面建模分析

利用1951-2010年中国711个气象观测站的月降水资料,对多年季平均降水根据中国农业气候类型进行分区模拟。针对中国降水特点,首先分析了影响各分区降水的地理、地形因素及局部地形因素,利用多项式回归和逐步回归的方法对各分区降水进行了趋势拟合;在此基础上,采用改进的高精度曲面建模(HASM)方法,对各模拟区域去掉趋势后的残差进行迭代修正,并比较验证了模拟效果。同时,为保证HASM在边界附近的模拟精度,根据区域内站点间的距离,对每一分区设置一个缓冲区,将HASM实际插值区域扩展为缓冲区内的部分。模拟结果表明:HASM方法的模拟精度在不同区域不同季节内均比经典的插值方法模拟精度高。利用上述方法分析了同一季节各分区降水的分布特点,并模拟了不同季节内多年平均降水的空间分布状况,模拟结果符合我国降水的实际分布特点。     

温度和风速对湿度传感器动态特性的影响

研究温度和风速对湿度传感器动态特性的影响.利用湿度传感器动态特性校准装置在不同的温度和风速条件下对湿度传感器的动态特性进行了测试,分别运用图解法、湿度变化法和非线性最小二乘法计算了湿度传感器在不同温度和风速条件下的阶跃响应的时间常数.计算结果表明:在15～30℃温度范围内,随着温度的升高,湿度传感器时间常数变小;在0～4 m/s风速范围内,随着风速的变大,其时间常数变小.在进行湿度传感器的动态特性评价时必须考虑温度和风速的影响.     

A fundamental theorem for eco-environmental surface modelling and its applications

We propose a fundamental theorem for eco-environmental surface modelling(FTEEM) in order to apply it into the fields of ecology and environmental science more easily after the fundamental theorem for Earth's surface system modeling(FTESM). The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH) region is taken as a case area to conduct empirical studies of algorithms for spatial upscaling, spatial downscaling, spatial interpolation, data fusion and model-data assimilation, which are based on high accuracy surface modelling(HASM), corresponding with corollaries of FTEEM. The case studies demonstrate how eco-environmental surface modelling is substantially improved when both extrinsic and intrinsic information are used along with an appropriate method of HASM. Compared with classic algorithms, the HASM-based algorithm for spatial upscaling reduced the root-meansquare error of the BTH elevation surface by 9 m. The HASM-based algorithm for spatial downscaling reduced the relative error of future scenarios of annual mean temperature by 16%. The HASM-based algorithm for spatial interpolation reduced the relative error of change trend of annual mean precipitation by 0.2%. The HASM-based algorithm for data fusion reduced the relative error of change trend of annual mean temperature by 70%. The HASM-based algorithm for model-data assimilation reduced the relative error of carbon stocks by 40%. We propose five theoretical challenges and three application problems of HASM that need to be addressed to improve FTEEM.     

Impacts of backwater hydrodynamics on fluvial–deltaic stratigraphy

The hydrodynamics of rivers approaching a receiving basin are influenced by the onset of backwater conditions that give rise to decelerating reach-average flow velocity and decreasing boundary shear stress. These changes occur across a spatial gradient over which decreasing sediment transport capacity triggers morphodynamic responses that include sediment deposition at the transition from uniform to nonuniform flow. As a consequence, the channel width-to-depth ratio and bed sediment grain size decrease downstream. While nonuniform flow and associated morphodynamic adjustments have been investigated in modern fluvial–deltaic systems, the impacts to fluvial–deltaic stratigraphy remain relatively unexplored. This represents an important unresolved gap: there are few contributions that link morphodynamic response to nonuniform flow, impacts on sediment deposition and influence on the rock record. This study uses a numerical model to explore how variable channel hydraulics influence long-term (1000s years) patterns of sediment deposition and development of stratigraphy. The model results indicate that: (a) nonuniform flow propagates upstream beyond the backwater transition that is traditionally estimated with a basic backwater length scale relationship. (b) Base-level fluctuations, especially rising, enhance the impact of nonuniform flow. (c) Sediment deposition shows large spatio-temporal variability, which ultimately contributes to unique stacking patterns of fluvial–deltaic stratigraphy. (d) Nonuniform flow imparts spatial variation in flow depth, channel bed slope and sediment grain size over the delta, and these signatures are potentially preserved and recognizable in the rock record.     

基于DInSAR与概率积分法的铁路变形监测与预测

为掌握采空区上方铁路实时动态变形及变形趋势,本文提出了合成孔径雷达差分干涉技术（DInSAR）与概率积分法相结合的方法。首先利用DInSAR技术对采空区进行了监测,并利用水准数据对DInSAR结果进行了验证;然后基于DInSAR结果结合概率积分法反算参数,并对参数进行了修正,得到工作面充分采动时的下沉参数;最后利用修正的参数对铁路的变形进行了预测。结果表明两者的结合可以有效地对铁路等线性构筑物进行监测与预测。     

辽河西部凹陷南段异常低压背景下的成岩动力学研究与成岩相预测

辽河西部凹陷南段古近系砂岩中发育低压-异常低压,泥岩中发育超压。文中考虑低压对砂岩成岩作用的促进作用和超压对泥岩成岩作用的抑制作用,建立了适合于异常压力背景下的成岩作用数值模拟模型,模拟了该区的成岩演化史,预测了成岩阶段和成岩相。结果表明,在断陷期,辽河西部凹陷南段断裂活动强烈,大地热流高,成岩演化快;在裂后期,构造活动弱,大地热流低,成岩演化慢。目前,在深凹陷区沙河街组已进入中成岩阶段B期—晚成岩阶段,主要发育致密储层;在斜坡带沙河街组主要处于早成岩阶段—中成岩阶段A期,发育常规储层。     

基于大数据云平台的天山气象APP设计与应用

为提升大数据云平台与移动互联网的耦合气象服务质量,满足气象防灾减灾移动可视化需求,推进新疆气象信息化事业高质量发展,亟需开发一款专业气象服务APP。该APP在“云+端”业务模式下充分利用气象业务现有数字化成果,采取多源存储、接口调用、控制反转和数据交互技术,对全疆天气自动站的地面观测、格点实况融合、雷达回波、灾害预警等气象资料进行加工处理和移动展示。天山气象APP可按用户需求提供疆内基于实时位置的天气实况、精细化预报、预警详情、雷达拼图、实况要素产品和统计值要素产品,同时继承大数据云平台服务接口高额承载能力,实现毫秒级响应,在全疆天气自动站应急保障与气象防灾减灾服务中应用成效显著。     

Facies and depositional model of alluvial fan dominated by episodic flood events in arid conditions: An example from the Quaternary Poplar Fan,north-western China

Alluvial fans are usually constructed through episodic flood events. Despite the significance of these ephemeral floods on the morphodynamics of alluvial fans, depositional responses to the variations in flood conditions are still poorly documented. This greatly limits the ability to interpret ancient sedimentary successions of fans and the associated flood hydrodynamics. The Quaternary Poplar Fan from endorheic Heshituoluogai Basin provides an optimal case for addressing this issue. Based on the variations in facies associations and flood conditions, three depositional stages – namely; lobe building stage, channel building stage and the abandonment stage – are identified. During the lobe building stage the Poplar Fan is predominately constructed through incised channel flood, sheetflood and unconfined streamflood, with coeval development of distal surficial ephemeral ponds. The channel building stage is characterized by the development of gravelly braided rivers. However, only scour pool fill deposits are preferentially preserved in the Poplar Fan. During the abandonment stage, erosional lags and aeolian sands randomly occur throughout the fan, while gully deposits can only be found in the distal fan. The distinctive facies architecture of the Poplar Fan is likely to be the result of periodicity of climate fluctuations between wetter and drier conditions during the Late Pleistocene to Holocene. The ephemeral floods formed under wetter conditions usually show high discharge and sediment concentrations which facilitate the lobe building processes. During the drier periods, only gravelly braided rivers can be developed through ephemeral floods as the intensity and frequency in precipitation, discharge and sediment concentrations of the flood flows significantly decrease. The abandonment stage of the fan may occur between recurring flood episodes or during the driest periods. Furthermore, the long-term (10⁵ to 10⁶ year) geomorphic evolution of the Poplar Fan shows the influence of tectonic activities. The ongoing thrust uplift tectonic activities have caused destruction of the fan but can also facilitate the fan-head trench/incision of the fan, which in turn facilitate the progradation of the fan. This study proposes a new depositional model for alluvial fans constructed through episodic flood events, which shows the character of both sheet-flood dominated and stream-flow dominated end members of alluvial fans. These findings supplement the understanding of the variability of the alluvial fans and provide means to characterize rock record of alluvial fans and their associated flood and climate conditions.