The structure of the mid- and high-latitude ionosphere during the November 2004 storm event obtained from GPS observations

GPS data from the International GNSS Service (IGS) network were used to study the development of the severe geomagnetic storm of November 7–12, 2004, in the total electron content (TEC) on a global scale. The TEC maps were produced for analyzing the storm. For producing the maps over European and North American sectors, GPS measurements from more than 100 stations were used. The dense network of GPS stations provided TEC measurements with a high temporal and spatial resolution. To present the temporal and spatial variation of TEC during the storm, differential TEC maps relative to a quiet day (November 6, 2004) were created. The features of geomagnetic storm attributed to the complex development of ionospheric storm depend on latitude, longitude and local time. The positive, as well as negative effects were detected in TEC variations as a consequence of the evolution of the geomagnetic storm. The maximal effect was registered in the subauroral/auroral ionosphere during substorm activity in the evening and night period. The latitudinal profiles obtained from TEC maps for Europe gave rise to the storm-time dynamic of the ionospheric trough, which was detected on November 7 and 9 at latitudes below 50°N. In the report, features of the response of TEC to the storm for European and North American sectors are analyzed.     

Structure of the solar photospheric convection on subgranulation scales

We investigate the structure of convective flows in the solar photosphere on subgranulation scales. The solar granulation pattern is reproduced by solving the inverse problem of nonequilibrium radiation transfer on the basis of the profiles of the neutral iron line λ 523.42 nm. The wave motions are excluded by the k-ω filtration. The line-of-sight velocity has an asymmetric distribution inside the convective flows in large granules (1.5″ and larger) in the lower photosphere and at the bottom of the middle photosphere. This asymmetry is weaker in the upper photosphere. For smaller flows the distribution is more symmetric at all heights. The asymmetry of the temperature distribution is less pronounced. Large convective flows were found to have a fine structure: they are fragmentized into several smaller flows. The fine structure of large flows and spatial smearing are responsible for the observed asymmetry of the convection velocity distribution inside flows.     

Measuring the accessibility of critical facilities in the presence of hurricane-related roadway closures and an approach for predicting future roadway disruptions

Natural Hazards - Roadway closures magnify the adverse effects of disasters on people since any type of such disruption increases the emergency response travel time (ERTT), which is of central...     

Evaluation of the Presence of Methane in Złoczew Lignite: Comparison with Other Lignite Deposits in Poland

Natural Resources Research - Catastrophic cases of methane explosion during exploratory drilling within the Be?chatów ortholignite deposit have led to testing for methane in other Polish...     

Investigation of heliogeoactivity impact on the dynamics of orbital parameters of Earth’s artificial satellites. I

The influence of active processes on the Sun and their response on the dynamics of Earth’s artificial satellites has been investigated. The relationship between the characteristics of solar activity and variations of the periods P of the orbital motion of Earth’s artificial satellites has been found. These variations mainly indicate the variations in the Earth’s atmosphere density caused by solar activity (index F_10.7) and geomagnetic activity (ΣK_p index). High values of the correlation coefficients between P and ^F_10.7 (–0.77…–0.91) and between P and ΣK_p (–0.67…–0.89) exhibit significant effect of solar and geomagnetic activity on the orbital periods of satellites.     

Multi-tracer tests to evaluate the hydraulic setting of a complex aquifer system (Brévilles spring catchment, France)

For good management of groundwater resources, and to comply with European and national regulations, a detailed understanding of an aquifer’s hydraulic setting is required. In order to better characterize a sandy aquifer that is affected by diffuse pollution (Brévilles spring catchment, Val d’Oise, France), and to quantify the transfer time in the saturated zone, a multi-tracer test involving a new technique, the ‘finite volume point dilution method’, has been performed in natural flow conditions. In November 2005, injections of four different tracers took place in four piezometers involving different locations and depths in the aquifer. Recovery of the tracers was observed at two different places near the aquifer outlet. A particularly long and unusual monitoring exercise (27 months) demonstrated the existence of several different velocities within the sandy layer, which seems to be linked to the decrease of hydraulic conductivity with depth. The new insight and parameter quantification brought by interpretation of these tests contribute to a better characterization of the saturated zone. The particularly long-term monitoring exercise also gives new information to understand and forecast the trend and persistence of groundwater contamination by pesticides in the catchment.     

On Modelling Discrete Geological Structures as Markov Random Fields

The purpose of this paper is to extend the locally based prediction methodology of BayMar to a global one by modelling discrete spatial structures as Markov random fields. BayMar uses one-dimensional Markov-properties for estimating spatial correlation and Bayesian updating for locally integrating prior and additional information. The methodology of this paper introduces a new estimator of the field parameters based on the maximum likelihood technique for one-dimensional Markov chains. This makes the estimator straightforward to calculate also when there is a large amount of missing observations, which often is the case in geological applications. We make simulations (both unconditional and conditional on the observed data) and maximum a posteriori predictions (restorations) of the non-observed data using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, in the restoration case by employing simulated annealing. The described method gives satisfactory predictions, while more work is needed in order to simulate, since it appears to have a tendency to overestimate strong spatial dependence. It provides an important development compared to the BayMar-methodology by facilitating global predictions and improved use of sparse data.     

Assessment of the hurricane-induced power outages from a demographic,socioeconomic, and transportation perspective

Natural disasters have devastating effects on the infrastructure and disrupt every aspect of daily life in the regions they hit. To alleviate problems caused by these disasters, first an impact assessment is needed. As such, this paper focuses on a two-step methodology to identify the impact of Hurricane Hermine on the City of Tallahassee, the capital of Florida. The regional and socioeconomic variations in the Hermine’s impact were studied via spatially and statistically analyzing power outages. First step includes a spatial analysis to illustrate the magnitude of customers affected by power outages together with a clustering analysis. This step aims to determine whether the customers affected from outages are clustered or not. Second step involves a Bayesian spatial autoregressive model in order to identify the effects of several demographic-, socioeconomic-, and transportation-related variables on the magnitude of customers affected by power outages. Results showed that customers affected by outages are spatially clustered at particular regions rather than being dispersed. This indicates the need to pinpoint such vulnerable locations and develop strategies to reduce hurricane-induced disruptions. Furthermore, the increase in the magnitude of affected customers was found to be associated with several variables such as the power network and total generated trips as well as the demographic factors. The information gained from the findings of this study can assist emergency officials in identifying critical and/or less resilient regions, and determining those demographic and socioeconomic groups which were relatively more affected by the consequences of hurricanes than others.     

Mangrove Conservation and Coastal Management in Southeast Asia: What Impact on Fishery Resources?

This paper focuses on relationships between mangroves and coastal fish resources. A review of the literature highlights the lack of quantified relationships. We show that mangroves can be considered as a particular case of an estuarine environment, and then address the broader issue of the relationships between tropical estuaries and fishery resources. An estuarine fish community is composed of three main assemblages, respectively from continental, strictly estuarine or marine origin. The major characteristics of these assemblages are defined. On this basis we detail the different and sometimes opposite impacts of major rehabilitation actions on each assemblage. The biological approach is then widened by a critical overview of current approaches in economic valuation of mangrove-related fish resources. This provides a rational and scientific foundation for economic analysis of resources and for coastal management decisions, and allows us to define priorities for further scientific and policy research in these areas.