Trends and multi‐annual variability of water temperatures in the river Danube,Serbia

The relationship between air (Ta) and water temperature (Tw) is very important because it shows how the temperature of a water body might respond to future changes in surface Ta. Mean monthly Tw records of three gauging stations (Bezdan, Bogojevo i Veliko Gradi?te) were analysed alongside mean monthly discharge (Q) for the same stations. Additionally, Ta series from two meteorological stations (Sombor and Veliko Gradi?te) were correlated with Tw variations over the period 1950–2012. Locally weighted scatter point smoothing (LOWESS) was used to investigate long‐term trends in the raw data, alongside the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test. Trend significance was established using Yue–Pilon's pre‐whitening approaches to determine trends in climate data. Also, the rescaled adjusted partial sums (RAPS) method was used to detect dates of possible changes in the time series. Statistically significant warming trends were observed for annual and seasonal minimum and maximum Tw at all investigated sites. The strongest warming was observed at Bogojevo gauging station for seasonal maximum Tw, with +0.05 °C per year on average. RAPS established that the trend began in the 1980s. This behaviour is linked to climate patterns in the North and East Atlantic which determine the amount of heat advected onto mainland Europe. Statistically significant correlations were found for all Tw on an annual basis. Overall, the strongest correlations (p < 0.01) between Tw residuals and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were recorded for the winter period. These findings suggest possible predictability of Tw over seasonal time‐scales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Annual and seasonal variability of precipitation in Vojvodina,Serbia

Annual and seasonal variability of precipitation observed at 92 stations in Vojvodina (Serbia) were analyzed during the period 1946–2006. The rainfall series were examined by means of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The first set of singular vectors explains from 68.8 % (in summer) to 81.8 % (in winter) of the total variance. The temporal variability of the time series associated with the main EOF configurations (the principal components, PCs) was examined using the Mann–Kendall test and the spectral analysis. The time series of PC1 revealed decreasing trend in the winter and spring precipitation and increasing trend in the autumn, summer, and annual precipitation. The relationships between the first PC and circulation patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russia pattern, were also investigated. The PC1, displaying temporal behavior of the first mode, demonstrated evident correspondence with the NAO index in analysis of the annual, winter, and autumn precipitation. Power spectra of the PC1 show statistically significant oscillations of about 3.3 years for the spring precipitation and about 8 and 15 years for the winter precipitation. Comparisons with spectral analysis of authors for some regions in Europe, most of them in the Mediterranean domain, show that similar periodicities are detected.     

Implications of subsurface thermal–hydraulic–mechanical processes associated with glaciation on Shield flow system evolution and performance assessment

A deep geologic repository (DGR) situated on the Canadian Shield will be subject to long-term climate change that will markedly alter surface conditions as a result of glaciation and permafrost penetration. Systematic, two-dimensional and three-dimensional coupled thermal–hydraulic–mechanical finite-element simulations with varying degrees of coupling, including depth-dependent salinity (represented as a change in groundwater density) and temperature-dependent density and viscosity, were undertaken to address the implications of glaciation on groundwater flow system dynamics as it could affect DGR performance. The modelling domain consisted of a 1.6-km deep sub-regional scale (≈100 km²) fractured Shield flow system. Initial and transient thermal, hydraulic and mechanical boundary conditions were developed from two realizations of the University of Toronto Glacial Systems Model of the last Laurentide glaciation. Results indicate that during the glacial loading/unloading cycle, for this particular conceptual model, there is limited penetration of glacial meltwaters to depth and small residual anomalous hydraulic head. During glacial coverage, the mechanical factor of safety increases in the moderately fractured and sparsely fractured rock mass, but principal effective stress reorientation also occurs. Given the assumed nonglacial in situ state of stress and mechanical properties, the fracture zones were predicted to be less stable under glacial conditions.

Carboniferous foraminifers from the lower part of Paleo-Tethyan seamount-type carbonates in the Changning-Menglian Belt, western Yunnan, Southwest China

The Changning-Menglian Belt in West Yunnan, Southwest China is well-known as a closed remnant of the Paleo-Tethys Ocean in East Asia (Wu et al., 1995; Liu et al., 1996). It is delineated to the east with the Lincang Massif by the Changning-Shuangjiang Fault and to the west with the Baoshan Block by the Kejie-Nandinghe Fault, and is generally subdivided into three zones: east, central, and west zones. In the central zone, various kinds of oceanic rocks such as harzburgite, cumulate websterite, gabbro, both mid-oceanic ridge basalt and oceanic island basalt, Devonian-Triassic radiolarian chert, and Carbonifer-ous-Permian massive and huge carbonates with basaltic effusives as their pedestal are exposed (Liu et al., 1991, 1996; Wu et al., 1995; Ueno et al., 2003). These Central zone rocks are now interpreted to have been emplaced as nappes structurally overlying the East and West zones, which are considered as consisting mainly of passive margin sediments of the Baoshan Block (Wu, 1991; Ueno et al., 2003).     

Use of comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography/time-of-flight mass spectrometry for the characterization of biodegradation and unresolved complex mixtures in petroleum

A comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography/time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC × GC/TOFMS) method has been developed for separation of a series of petroleum samples using a polar/non-polar column set configuration. Groups of oils were selected to provide samples from the same oil family to assist in comparison of compositional changes during biodegradation. The groups also represented different sources and ages to allow an assessment of the application of GC × GC for the differentiation of oil source, as well as fluid history. The increased resolution and separation afforded by the GC × GC technique provides more complete compositional information on complex biodegraded oil samples than one-dimensional GC, and improves the ability to study biodegradation trends. Among the components identified, it is proposed that alkyl-decahydronaphthalenes constitute a significant contribution to the UCM.     

Rock relationships in the Mogok metamorphic belt, Tatkon to Mandalay, central Myanmar

The Mogok metamorphic belt (MMB), over 1450 km long and up to 40 km wide, consists of regionally metamorphosed rocks including kyanite and sillimanite schists and granites lying along the Western margin of the Shan Plateau in central Myanmar and continuing northwards to the eastern Himalayan syntaxis. Exposures in quarries allow correlation of Palaeozoic meta-sedimentary, early Mesozoic meta-igneous and late Mesozoic intrusive rocks within a 230 km long northerly-trending segment of the MMB, from Tatkon to Kyanigan north of Mandalay, and with the Mogok gemstone district 100 km to the northeast. Relationships among the metamorphic and intrusive rocks, with sparse published radiometric age controls, indicate at least two metamorphic events, one before and one after the intrusion of Late Jurassic to early Cretaceous calc-alkaline rocks. These relationships can be explained by either of two possible tectonic histories. One, constrained by correlation of mid-Permian limestones across Myanmar, requires early Permian and early Jurassic regional metamorphic events, prior to an early Tertiary metamorphism, in the western part of but within a Shan-Thai – western Myanmar block. The second, not compatible with a single laterally continuous Permian limestone, requires pre-Upper Jurassic regional metamorphism and orogenic gold mineralization in the Mergui Group and western Myanmar, early Cretaceous collision of an east-facing Mergui-western Myanmar island arc with the Shan Plateau, and early Tertiary metamorphism in the MMB related to reversal in tectonic polarity following the arc-Plateau collision.     

Locating anomalies by gravity gradiometry using the matched filter with a probabilistic assessment

The matched filter can be used to identify the location of a specific signal embedded in background correlated noise. The maximum filter output indicates the likely location and, with appropriate statistical assumptions on the noise, it also serves as a test statistic in the probabilistic evaluation of the filter’s performance. Different setups of the Neyman-Pearson statistical hypothesis test yield predictions of either the probability of a miss or that of a false alarm. The needed statistics of the maximum filter output are properly obtained using the distribution of order statistics. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we analyzed the ability of the matched filter to identify a sub-surface anomaly in typically correlated gravity fields using observations of elements of the gravity gradient tensor. We also evaluated the reliability of the hypothesis testing and the associated predicted probabilities of misses and false alarms. Our simulations and statistical analyses confirm that the power of the tests increases as the signal strength increases and as more gradient tensor components per observation point are included. We also found that the hypothesis test that is designed to predict the probability of a miss is more robust and powerful than the one for predicting a false alarm. Moreover, the probability of a miss is somewhat smaller than the probability of a false alarm under otherwise equal circumstances.     

湟水谷地农业生态经济系统的能值分析——以西宁市为例

运用能值理论与分析方法,采用净能值产出率、环境负荷率、能值密度、人均能值用量、能值产投比及可持续性指数、系统稳定性指数及优势度指数等重要能值指标对位于湟水谷地的西宁市1990-2008年间农业生态经济系统的能值结构作了深入地分析.结果表明:湟水谷地农业生态系统由1990-2004年的低效率开发阶段逐步转变为2005-2...     

楼盘施工注浆及荷载对唐山矿井水位的影响分析

2010年唐山矿井水位上升速率明显加快,上升幅度明显高于往年同期.本文从地下水动力学和荷载效应角度,利用抽(注)水试验模型和均布荷载下半无限大的弹性空间理论模型,分析井孔附近楼盘施工注浆及建成后荷载作用对井水位的影响.结果表明,距井孔200 ～700m范围内注浆,每天注浆2500 m3,注浆270d,能引起井水位上升8～11m的变化;大面积的楼盘荷载作用可以引起井水位上升约4m的变化.通过对这些影响因素的分析,认为唐山矿井水位的上升异常与楼盘施工注浆及建成后的荷载作用有一定的相关性.