Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall events in Jakarta

Natural Hazards - Jakarta is vulnerable to flooding and extreme rainfall events are always the main cause of the occurrence of heavy flood events with loss of life and property. The flood in...     

Are satellite products good proxies for gauge precipitation over Singapore?

The uncertainties in two high-resolution satellite precipitation products (TRMM 3B42 v7.0 and GSMaP v5.222) were investigated by comparing them against rain gauge observations over Singapore on sub-daily scales. The satellite-borne precipitation products are assessed in terms of seasonal, monthly and daily variations, the diurnal cycle, and extreme precipitation over a 10-year period (2000–2010). Results indicate that the uncertainties in extreme precipitation is higher in GSMaP than in TRMM, possibly due to the issues such as satellite merging algorithm, the finer spatio-temporal scale of high intensity precipitation, and the swath time of satellite. Such discrepancies between satellite-borne and gauge-based precipitations at sub-daily scale can possibly lead to distorting analysis of precipitation characteristics and/or application model results. Overall, both satellite products are unable to capture the observed extremes and provide a good agreement with observations only at coarse time scales. Also, the satellite products agree well on the late afternoon maximum and heavier rainfall of gauge-based data in winter season when the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is located over Singapore. However, they do not reproduce the gauge-observed diurnal cycle in summer. The disagreement in summer could be attributed to the dominant satellite overpass time (about 14:00 SGT) later than the diurnal peak time (about 09:00 SGT) of gauge precipitation. From the analyses of extreme precipitation indices, it is inferred that both satellite datasets tend to overestimate the light rain and frequency but underestimate high intensity precipitation and the length of dry spells. This study on quantification of their uncertainty is useful in many aspects especially that these satellite products stand scrutiny over places where there are no good ground data to be compared against. This has serious implications on climate studies as in model evaluations and in particular, climate model simulated future projections, when information on precipitation extremes need to be reliable as they are highly crucial for adaptation and mitigation.     

An ANN application for water quality forecasting

Rapid urban and coastal developments often witness deterioration of regional seawater quality. As part of the management process, it is important to assess the baseline characteristics of the marine environment so that sustainable development can be pursued. In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used to predict and forecast quantitative characteristics of water bodies. The true power and advantage of this method lie in its ability to (1) represent both linear and non-linear relationships and (2) learn these relationships directly from the data being modeled. The study focuses on Singapore coastal waters. The ANN model is built for quick assessment and forecasting of selected water quality variables at any location in the domain of interest. Respective variables measured at other locations serve as the input parameters. The variables of interest are salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and chlorophyll-a. A time lag up to 2Deltat appeared to suffice to yield good simulation results. To validate the performance of the trained ANN, it was applied to an unseen data set from a station in the region. The results show the ANN's great potential to simulate water quality variables. Simulation accuracy, measured in the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (R(2)), ranged from 0.8 to 0.9 for the training and overfitting test data. Thus, a trained ANN model may potentially provide simulated values for desired locations at which measured data are unavailable yet required for water quality models.     

Assessment of CMIP5 historical simulations of rainfall over Southeast Asia

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - We present preliminary analyses of the historical (1986–2005) climate simulations of a ten-member subset of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project...