Recovering the initial conditions of our local Universe from NOG and PSCz catalogues

We apply the ztrace algorithm to the optical NOG and infrared PSC z galaxy catalogues to reconstruct the pattern of primordial fluctuations that have generated our local Universe. We check that the density fields traced by the two catalogues are well correlated, and consistent with a linear relation [either in δ or in  log (1 +δ)  ] with relative bias (of NOG with respect to PSC z )   b _rel= 1.1 ± 0.1  . The relative bias relation is used to fill the optical zone of avoidance at  | b | < 20°  using the PSC z galaxy density field.
We perform extensive testing on simulated galaxy catalogues to optimize the reconstruction. The quality of the reconstruction is predicted to be good at large scales, up to a limiting wavenumber   k _lim≃ 0.4 h Mpc⁻¹  beyond which all information is lost. We find that the improvement arising from the denser sampling of the optical catalogue is compensated by the uncertainties connected to the larger zone of avoidance.
The initial conditions reconstructed from the NOG catalogue are found (analogously to those from the PSC z ) to be consistent with a Gaussian paradigm. We use the reconstructions to produce sets of initial conditions ready to be used for constrained simulations of our local Universe.     

Conceptually-based shot noise modeling of streamflows at short time interval

A conceptual-stochastic approach to short time runoff data modelling is proposed, according to the aim of reproducing the hydrological aspects of the streamflow process and of preserving as much as possible the dynamics of the process itself. This latter task implies preservation of streamflow characteristics at higher scales of aggregation and, within a conceptual framework, involves compatibility with models proposed for the runoff process at those scales. At a daily time scale the watershed response to the effective rainfall is considered as deriving from the response of three linear reservoirs, respectively representing contributions to streamflows of large deep aquifers, with over-year response lag, of aquifers which run dry by the end of the dry season and of subsurface runoff. The surface runoff component is regarded as an uncorrelated point process. Considering the occurrences of effective rainfall events as generated by an independent Poisson process, the output of the linear system represents a conceptually-based multiple shot noise process. Model identification and parameter estimation are supported by information related to the aggregated runoff process, in agreement to the conceptual framework proposed, and this allows parameter parsimony, efficient estimation and effectiveness of the streamflow reproduction. Good performances emerged from the model application and testing made with reference to some daily runoff series from Italian basins.     

Statistical identification of orographic effects in the regional analysis of extreme rainfall

Regional models of extreme rainfall must address the spatial variability induced by orographic obstacles. However, the proper detection of orographic effects often depends on the availability of a well‐designed rain gauge network. The aim of this study is to investigate a new method for identifying and characterizing the effects of orography on the spatial structure of extreme rainfall at the regional scale, including where rainfall data are lacking or fail to describe rainfall features thoroughly. We analyse the annual maxima of daily rainfall data in the Campania region, an orographically complex region in Southern Italy, and introduce a statistical procedure to identify spatial outliers in a low order statistic (namely the mean). The locations of these outliers are then compared with a pattern of orographic objects that has been a priori identified through the application of an automatic geomorphological procedure. The results show a direct and clear link between a particular set of orographic objects and a local increase in the spatial variability of extreme rainfall. This analysis allowed us to objectively identify areas where orography produces enhanced variability in extreme rainfall. It has direct implications for rain gauge network design criteria and has led to promising developments in the regional analysis of extreme rainfall. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate simulation over Greenland

A simulation of the 1991 summer has been performed over south Greenland with a coupled atmosphere–snow regional climate model (RCM) forced by the ECMWF re-analysis. The simulation is evaluated with in-situ coastal and ice-sheet atmospheric and glaciological observations. Modelled air temperature, specific humidity, wind speed and radiative fluxes are in good agreement with the available observations, although uncertainties in the radiative transfer scheme need further investigation to improve the model’s performance. In the sub-surface snow-ice model, surface albedo is calculated from the simulated snow grain shape and size, snow depth, meltwater accumulation, cloudiness and ice albedo. The use of snow metamorphism processes allows a realistic modelling of the temporal variations in the surface albedo during both melting periods and accumulation events. Concerning the surface albedo, the main finding is that an accurate albedo simulation during the melting season strongly depends on a proper initialization of the surface conditions which mainly result from winter accumulation processes. Furthermore, in a sensitivity experiment with a constant 0.8 albedo over the whole ice sheet, the average amount of melt decreased by more than 60%, which highlights the importance of a correctly simulated surface albedo. The use of this coupled atmosphere–snow RCM offers new perspectives in the study of the Greenland surface mass balance due to the represented feedback between the surface climate and the surface albedo, which is the most sensitive parameter in energy-balance-based ablation calculations.     

A First Generation Stochastic Bioeconomic Analysis of Algal Bloom Control in a Coastal Lagoon (Sacca di Goro, Po River Delta)

Abstract. In this work we have developed a very simple stochastic mathematical model of Ulva spp. growth to quantitatively evaluate the economic costs of algal harvesting and the related benefits in terms of avoided'economic loss'of clam production due to an effective prevention of algal blooms and the consequent anoxic crises. Algal growth was simulated by means of a discrete time difference equation of Ulva biomass where the finite growth rate depends only upon water temperature. In order to explicitly include environmental variability, a seasonal autoregressive model calibrated on available data was used to simulate water temperature. Different harvesting scenarios were analysed in terms of the number of harvesting vessels employed and the threshold biomass of Ulva at which vessels start to operate. Costs of algal harvesting and disposal, as well as monetary damages resulting from the collapse of clam production as a consequence of algal blooms, were assessed by interviewing the managers of the Clam Fishermen's Union of Goro. A Monte Carlo approach was used to estimate the mean and total statistical distribution of costs and benefits of different harvesting strategies. Our analysis shows that the most cost-effective management policy is attained with 4–6 vessels operating at low algal density able to harvest as much Ulva as possible with intensive and short interventions at the beginning of the seasonal growth.     

The correlation of star formation quenching with internal galaxy properties and environment

We investigate the correlation of star formation quenching with internal galaxy properties and large-scale environment (halo mass) in empirical data and theoretical models. We make use of the halo-based group catalogue of Yang and collaborators, which is based on the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. Data from the Galaxy evolution explorer are also used to extract the recent star formation rate. In order to investigate the environmental effects, we examine the properties of 'central' and 'satellite' galaxies separately. For central galaxies, we are unable to conclude whether star formation quenching is primarily connected with halo mass or stellar mass, because these two quantities are themselves strongly correlated. For satellite galaxies, a nearly equally strong dependence on halo mass and stellar mass is seen. We make the same comparison for five different semi-analytic models based on three independently developed codes. We find that the models with active galactic nuclei feedback reproduce reasonably well the dependence of the fraction of central red and passive galaxies on halo mass and stellar mass. However, for satellite galaxies, the same models badly overproduce the fraction of red/passive galaxies and do not reproduce the empirical trends with stellar mass or halo mass. This satellite overquenching problem is caused by the too-rapid stripping of the satellites' hot gas haloes, which leads to rapid strangulation of star formation.     

ROBUST: The ROle of BUffering capacities in STabilising coastal lagoon ecosystems

“Buffer capacities” has been defined in ecology as a holistic concept (e.g., Integration of Ecosystem Theories: A Pattern, second ed. Kluwer, Dordrecht, 1997, 388pp), but we show that it can also be worked out in mechanistic studies. Our mechanistic approach highlights that “buffering capacities” can be depleted progressively, and, therefore, we make a distinction between current and potential “buffering capacities”. We have applied this concept to understand the limited “local stability” in seagrass ecosystems and their vulnerability towards structural changes into macro-algal dominated communities. We explored the following processes and studied how they confer buffering capacities to the seagrass ecosystem: (i) net autotrophy is persistent in Zostera noltii meadows where plant assimilation acts as a sink for nutrients, this contrasted with the Ulva system that shifted back and forth between net autotrophy and net heterotrophy; (ii) the Z. noltii ecosystem possesses a certain albeit rather limited capacity to modify the balance between nitrogen fixation and denitrification, i.e., it was found that in situ nitrogen fixation always exceeded denitrification; (iii) the nitrogen demand of organoheterotrophic bacteria in the sediment results in nitrogen retention of N in the sediment and hence a buffer against release of nitrogen compounds from sediments, (iv) habitat diversification in seagrass meadows provides shelter for meiofauna and hence buffering against adverse conditions, (v) sedimentary iron provides a buffer against noxious sulfide (note: bacterial sulfide production is enhanced in anoxic sediment niches by increased organic matter loading). On the other hand, in the coastal system we studied, sedimentary iron appears less important as a redox-coupled buffer system against phosphate loading. This is because most inorganic phosphate is bound to calcium rather than to iron. In addition, our studies have highlighted the importance of plant–microbe interactions in the seagrass meadows.     

Conceptually-based shot noise modeling of streamflows at short time interval

A conceptual-stochastic approach to short time runoff data modelling is proposed, according to the aim of reproducing the hydrological aspects of the streamflow process and of preserving as much as possible the dynamics of the process itself. This latter task implies preservation of streamflow characteristics at higher scales of aggregation and, within a conceptual framework, involves compatibility with models proposed for the runoff process at those scales. At a daily time scale the watershed response to the effective rainfall is considered as deriving from the response of three linear reservoirs, respectively representing contributions to streamflows of large deep aquifers, with over-year response lag, of aquifers which run dry by the end of the dry season and of subsurface runoff. The surface runoff component is regarded as an uncorrelated point process. Considering the occurrences of effective rainfall events as generated by an independent Poisson process, the output of the linear system represents a conceptually-based multiple shot noise process. Model identification and parameter estimation are supported by information related to the aggregated runoff process, in agreement to the conceptual framework proposed, and this allows parameter parsimony, efficient estimation and effectiveness of the streamflow reproduction. Good performances emerged from the model application and testing made with reference to some daily runoff series from Italian basins.