Geology and hazard implications of the Maraunot notch in the Pinatubo Caldera,Philippines

The 1991 Pinatubo eruption left 5–6 km³ of debris on the volcano slopes, much of which has been mobilized into large lahars in the following rainy seasons. Also during the eruption, collapse, localized in part along preexisting faults, left a caldera 2.5 km in diameter that almost immediately began to accumulate a 1.6 × 10⁸ m³ lake. By 2001, the water had risen to the fault-controlled Maraunot Notch, the lowest, northwestern portion of the caldera rim comprising the physiographic sill of the Caldera Lake. That year, a narrow artificial canal dug into an old volcanic breccia underlying the outlet channel failed to induce a deliberate lake breakout, but discharge from heavy rains in July 2002 rapidly deepened the notch by 23 m, releasing an estimated 6.5 × 10⁷ m³ of lake water that bulked up into lahars with a volume well in excess of 1.6 × 10⁸ m³. Lakes in other volcanoes have experienced multiple breakouts, providing practical motivation for this study. Fieldwork and high-resolution digital elevation models reveal andesites and ancient lacustrine deposits, strongly fractured and deformed along a segment of the Maraunot Fault, a prominent, steeply dipping, left-lateral fault zone that trends N35°–40°W within and parallel to the notch. Seismicity in 1991 demonstrated that the Maraunot Fault is still active. The fault zone appears to have previously been the erosional locus for a large channel, filled with avalanche or landslide deposits of an earlier eruption that were exhumed by the 2002 breakout floods. The deformed lacustrine sediments, with an uncalibrated ¹⁴C age of 14,760 ± 40 year BP from a single charcoal sample, attest to the existence of an earlier lake, possibly within the Tayawan Caldera, rim remnants of which survive as arcuate escarpments. That lake may well have experienced one or more ancient breakouts as well. The 2002 event greatly reduced the possibility of another such event by scouring away the erodible breccia, leaving less erodible fractured andesites and lacustrine rocks, and by enlarging the outlet channel and its discharge capacity. Several lines of evidence indicate, however, that future lahar-generating lake breakouts at the notch may keep populations of Botolan municipality downstream at risk: (1) a volume of 9.5 × 10⁷ m³ of lake water remains perched 0.8 km above sea level; (2) seismicity in 1991 demonstrated that the Maraunot Fault is still active and movements of sufficient magnitude could enlarge the outlet and the discharge through it; (3) more likely, however, with or without earthquake activity, landslides from the steep to overhanging channel walls could block the channel again, and a major rainstorm could then cause a rise in lake level and sudden breakouts; (4) intrusion of a new dome into the bottom of the lake, possibly accompanied by phreatic explosions, could expel large volumes of lahar-generating water.     

Suspended‐sediment sources in an urban watershed,Northeast Branch Anacostia River,Maryland

Fine sediment sources were characterized by chemical composition in an urban watershed, the Northeast Branch Anacostia River, which drains to the Chesapeake Bay. Concentrations of 63 elements and two radionuclides were measured in possible land‐based sediment sources and suspended sediment collected from the water column at the watershed outlet during storm events. These tracer concentrations were used to determine the relative quantity of suspended sediment contributed by each source. Although this is an urbanized watershed, there was not a distinct urban signature that can be evaluated except for the contributions from road surfaces. We identified the sources of fine sediment by both physiographic province (Piedmont and Coastal Plain) and source locale (streambanks, upland and street residue) by using different sets of elemental tracers. The Piedmont contributed the majority of the fine sediment for seven of the eight measured storms. The streambanks contributed the greatest quantity of fine sediment when evaluated by source locale. Street residue contributed 13% of the total suspended sediment on average and was the source most concentrated in anthropogenically enriched elements. Combining results from the source locale and physiographic province analyses, most fine sediment in the Northeast Branch watershed is derived from streambanks that contain sediment eroded from the Piedmont physiographic province of the watershed. Sediment fingerprinting analyses are most useful when longer term evaluations of sediment erosion and storage are also available from streambank‐erosion measurements, sediment budget and other methods. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Catastrophic landslides,glacier behaviour and moraine formation – A view from an active plate margin

The influence of large bedrock landslides (“rock avalanches”) on the behaviour of glaciers is incompletely recognised. Here we present an example from an active tectonic margin in South Island, New Zealand where large earthquakes leave a significant imprint on glacial records. We demonstrate that terminal moraines on the western side of the Southern Alps record both ‘ordinary’ (i.e. climate-driven) and landslide-initiated glacial advances. Following consideration of the processes involved in rock avalanche-initiated moraine construction we suggest ways of determining the nature of the advance that built the terminal moraine. The implications of these observations are important in breaking the conventional linkage of individual terminal moraines with climate forcing.     

Magnetic susceptibility and electrical conductivity as a proxy for evaluating soil contaminated with arsenic,cadmium and lead in a metallurgical area in the San Luis Potosi State,Mexico

A total of 113 samples of waste and soil were collected from a site in the state of San Luis Potosi, Mexico, that was occupied for several years by the metallurgical industry. Specific magnetic susceptibility (MS), electrical conductivity (EC) and pH were determined, as well as the total and available concentrations of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) such as As, Cd, Cu, Fe, Pb and Zn, which may cause a health risk for humans, animals and ecosystems, and the concentrations of major ions in aqueous extracts of soils and wastes. The solid phases of the samples were also characterized. The results revealed that the soils and wastes exhibited elevated values of PTEs, MS and EC. For soils these values decreased with increasing distance from the waste storage sites. The MS values were elevated primarily due to the presence of Fe-oxyhydroxides, such as magnetite, hematite and goethite, which contain PTEs in their structure leading to a high correlation between the value of MS and the As, Cd, Fe and Pb contents (r = 0.57–0.91) as well as between the PTEs values (r = 0.68–0.92). The elevated EC values measured in the metallurgical wastes were the result of presence of the sulfate minerals of Ca, Mg and Fe. The pollution index, which indicates the levels of simultaneous toxicity from elements such as As, Cd and Pb, was determined, with extreme hazard zones corresponding to areas that exhibit high MS values (0.91 correlation). In conclusion, MS measurements can be used as an indirect indicator to evaluate the PTE contamination in metallurgical areas, and EC measurements can aid in the identification of pollution sources.     

Coral reef ecosystems protect shore from high-energy waves under climate change scenarios

Coral reefs and other coastal ecosystems such as seagrasses and mangroves are widely recognized to provide protection against the devastating effects of strong waves associated with tsunamis and storms. The predicted warming climate brings to fore the role of these ecosystems in providing protection against stronger typhoons that can result in more devastating waves of greater amplitude. We performed a model simulation of storm generated waves on a Philippine reef, which is located along the path of tropical storms, i.e., at least 10 typhoons on the average pass through the study site yearly. A model to simulate wave propagation was developed using Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) and DELFT3D-WAVE computer simulation software. Scenarios involving local monsoonal wind forcing and storm conditions were simulated. In addition, as climate change may also result to increased relative sea level, a 0.3 m and 1 m rise in sea level scenarios were also used in the wave model simulations. Results showed that the extensive reef system in the site helped dissipate wave energy that in turn reduced wave run-up on land. A significant reduction in wave energy was observed in both climate change, i.e., stronger wind and higher sea level, and non-climate change scenarios. This present study was conducted in a reef whose coral cover is in excellent condition (i.e., 50 to 80% coral cover). Estimates of coral reef growth are in the same order of magnitude as estimates of relative sea level rise based on tide gauge and satellite altimeter data, thus it is possible that the role of reefs in attenuating wave energy may be maintained if coral reef growth can keep up with the change in sea level. Nonetheless, to maintain reef growth, it is imperative to manage coral reef ecosystems sustainably and to eliminate the stressors that are within human control. Minimizing activities such as illegal and destructive blast and poison fishing methods, pollution and siltation, is crucial to minimize the impacts of high-energy waves that may increase with climate change.     

Climate change and the incidence of a forest pest in Mediterranean ecosystems: can the North Atlantic Oscillation be used as a predictor?

Many forest pest species strongly depend on temperature in their population dynamics, so that rising temperatures worldwide as a consequence of climatic change are leading to increased frequencies and intensities of insect-pest outbreaks. In the Mediterranean area, the climatic conditions are strongly linked to the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The aim of this work is to analyze the dynamics of the pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa), a severe pest of Pinus species in the Circunmediterranean, throughout a region of southern Spain, in relation to NAO indices. We related the percentage of forest plots with high defoliation by pine processionary moth each year with NAO values for the present and the three previous winters, using generalized linear models with a binomial error distribution. The time series is 16-year long, and we performed analyses for the whole database and for the five main pine species separately. We found a consistent relationship between the response variable and the NAO index. The relationship is stronger with pine species living at medium-high altitudes, such as Aleppo (P. halepensis), black (P. nigra), and Scots (Pinus sylvestris) pine, which show the higher defoliation intensities up to 3?years after a negative NAO phase. The results highlight, for the first time, the usefulness of using global drivers in order to understand the dynamics of pest outbreaks at a regional scale, and they open the window to the development of NAO-based predictive models as an early-warning signal of severe pest outbreaks.     

Dynamical Tropopause Variability and Potential Vorticity Streamers in the Northern Hemisphere —— A Climatological Analysis

This study presents a 44-year climatology of potential vorticity （PV） streamers in the Northern Hemisphere based upon analyses of the ERA-40 reanalysis data set. A comparison to an existing 15-year climatology yields very good agreement in the locations of PV streamer frequency maxima, but some differences are found in the amplitude of frequencies. The climatology is assessed with the focus on links between PV streamer frequencies and the synoptic- and planetary-scale variability of the dynamical tropopause.
A comprehensive overview is provided on where （zonally） and when （seasonally） short-term variability throughout the extra-tropical and sub-tropical tropopause is enhanced or reduced. Several key processes that influence this variability are discussed. Baroclinic processes, for example, determine the variability in the storm-track areas in winter, whereas the Asian summer monsoon significantly influences the variability over Asia.
The paper also describes links between the frequency of PV streamers in the extra-tropical and subtropical tropopause and three major northern hemisphere teleconnection patterns. The observed changes in the PV streamer frequencies are closely related to concomitant variations of PV and its gradient within the tropopause region. During opposite phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation the location of the streamer frequency maxima shifts significantly in the Atlantic and European region in both the extra-tropics and subtropics. The influence of ENSO on the streamer frequencies is most pronounced in the subtropical Pacific.