Evaluation of Subsurface Lithologic Units for Groundwater Exploration in the Barind Tract of Bangladesh

Barind Tract, located north western part of Bangladesh, is one of the most diversified physiographic units of the country. The surface water supply in this part is particularly limited, so the irrigation is almost entirely depends on groundwater. However, over exploitation indicates falling groundwater heads in this area. The objective of present study is to examine the nature of the aquifer system Barind Tract of Bangladesh in order to assess the sustainability of groundwater yield. Borehole lithology data were collected, processed and analyzed for this purpose. Representative panel diagram, 3-D stratigraphic and cross-sectional views were also prepared for necessary assessment of the variation of individual subsurface stratum in different locations. The study identified three subsurface geologic formations namely, a top clay layer, sand layer of different grain size and at the bottom an impermeable clay zone. Maps of formation thickness and index revealed that aquifer thickness is low in the north-western corner and in some places of middle of south-western corner. The thickness of sand formation in other places is recorded above 20 m. It is expect that the finding of the study will help groundwater resources development, planning and management in the area.     

Climate change-induced hazards and local adaptations in agriculture: a study from Koshi River Basin,Nepal

Natural Hazards - Changes in climate, associated hazards, local adaptations in agriculture, and socioeconomic factors affecting adaptation were investigated using data from a large survey of 2310...     

Ratio of generalized random variables with application

The generalized Pareto distribution is one of the popular models in the environmental sciences. Scientists in these areas are often interested in comparing the values of an environmental variable under two different conditions, locations, etc. This would require the study of the ratio X/(X+Y) where X and Y are independent generalized Pareto random variables. In this note, the exact distribution of X/(X+Y) is derived, which turns out to involve the Gauss hypergeometric function. An application of this result is provided to assess the relative extremity of rainfall for 14 locations in Florida. Some computer programs for use in the applications are also provided.     

Estimation of catchment yield and associated uncertainties due to climate change in a mountainous catchment in Australia

This paper examines the impacts of climate change on future water yield with associated uncertainties in a mountainous catchment in Australia using a multi‐model approach based on four global climate models (GCMs), 200 realisations (50 realisations from each GCM) of downscaled rainfalls, 2 hydrological models and 6 sets of model parameters. The ensemble projections by the GCMs showed that the mean annual rainfall is likely to reduce in the future decades by 2–5% in comparison with the current climate (1987–2012). The results of ensemble runoff projections indicated that the mean annual runoff would reduce in future decades by 35%. However, considerable uncertainty in the runoff estimates was found as the ensemble results project changes of the 5^th (dry scenario) and 95^th (wet scenario) percentiles by ?73% to +27%, ?73% to +12%, ?77% to +21% and ?80% to +24% in the decades of 2021–2030, 2031–2040, 2061–2070 and 2071–2080, respectively. Results of uncertainty estimation demonstrated that the choice of GCMs dominates overall uncertainty. Realisation uncertainty (arising from repetitive simulations for a given time step during downscaling of the GCM data to catchment scale) of the downscaled rainfall data was also found to be remarkably high. Uncertainty linked to the choice of hydrological models was found to be quite small in comparison with the GCM and realisation uncertainty. The hydrological model parameter uncertainty was found to be lowest among the sources of uncertainties considered in this study. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Parameter uncertainty of the AWBM model when applied to an ungauged catchment

In this study, a quantitative assessment of uncertainty was made in connection with the calibration of Australian Water Balance Model (AWBM) for both gauged and ungauged catchment cases. For the gauged catchment, five different rainfall data sets, 23 different calibration data lengths and eight different optimization techniques were adopted. For the ungauged catchment case, the optimum parameter sets obtained from the nearest gauged catchment were transposed to the ungauged catchments, and two regional prediction equations were used to estimate runoff. Uncertainties were ascertained by comparing the observed and modelled runoffs by the AWBM on the basis of different combinations of methods, model parameters and input data. The main finding from this study was that the uncertainties in the AWBM modelling outputs could vary from ?1.3% to 70% owing to different input rainfall data, ?5.7% to 11% owing to different calibration data lengths and ?6% to 0.2% owing to different optimization techniques adopted in the calibration of the AWBM. The performance of the AWBM model was found to be dominated mainly by the selection of appropriate rainfall data followed by the selection of an appropriate calibration data length and optimization algorithm. Use of relatively short data length (e.g. 3 to 6 years) in the calibration was found to generate relatively poor results. Effects of different optimization techniques on the calibration were found to be minimal. The uncertainties reported here in relation to the calibration and runoff estimation by the AWBM model are relevant to the selected study catchments, which are likely to differ for other catchments. The methodology presented in this paper can be applied to other catchments in Australia and other countries using AWBM and similar rainfall–runoff models. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrodynamics and suspended sediment transport at tidal inlets of Salut Mengkabong Lagoon,Sabah,Malaysia

Salut-Mengabong Lagoon is located at the west coast of Sabah facing the South China Sea. At the bay side of the main inlet the lagoon splits into Salut and Mengabong Channels. Sediment dynamics at the inlets of the lagoon have recently received considerable attention. But any direct measurement of hydrodynamics and sediment flux are yet to be well documented. This study covers the field measurements of current velocity, water flux, suspended sediment concentration and sediment flux across the three transects (main inlet, Salut entrance and Mengkabong entrance) during typical spring and neap tidal cycles in southwest monsoon and northeast monsoon. Temporal variations and time-averaged values of measured parameters are discussed. The inlets of Salut-Mengkabong Lagoon are found to be ebb-dominated. The time-averaged velocities during spring tidal measurements are found to be higher in the main inlet followed by Mengkabong entrance and Salut entrance. Suspended sediment concentration and sediment fluxes are substantially higher in spring tidal cycles compared to the same in neap tidal cycles. During spring tidal cycles, ebb tidal sediment fluxes are higher than the flood tidal fluxes. The ebb dominated flux across the main inlet led to the large ebb shoal.     

Flooding and its relationship with land cover change,population growth,and road density

Bangladesh experiences frequent hydro-climatic disasters such as flooding.These disasters are believed to be associated with land use changes and climate variability.However,identifying the factors that lead to flooding is challenging.This study mapped flood susceptibility in the northeast region of Bangladesh using Bayesian regularization back propagation(BRBP)neural network,classification and regression trees(CART),a statistical model(STM)using the evidence belief function(EBF),and their ensemble models(EMs)for three time periods(2000,2014,and 2017).The accuracy of machine learning algorithms(MLAs),STM,and EMs were assessed by considering the area under the curve-receiver operating char-acteristic(AUC-ROC).Evaluation of the accuracy levels of the aforementioned algorithms revealed that EM4(BRBP-CART-EBF)outperformed(AUC＞90％)standalone and other ensemble models for the three time periods analyzed.Furthermore,this study investigated the relationships among land cover change(LCC),population growth(PG),road density(RD),and relative change of flooding(RCF)areas for the per-iod between 2000 and 2017.The results showed that areas with very high susceptibility to flooding increased by 19.72％between 2000 and 2017,while the PG rate increased by 51.68％over the same period.The Pearson correlation coefficient for RCF and RD was calculated to be 0.496.These findings highlight the significant association between floods and causative factors.The study findings could be valuable to policymakers and resource managers as they can lead to improvements in flood management and reduction in flood damage and risks.     

The nexus approach to water–energy–food security: an option for adaptation to climate change

Developing countries face a difficult challenge in meeting the growing demands for food, water, and energy, which is further compounded by climate change. Effective adaptation to change requires the efficient use of land, water, energy, and other vital resources, and coordinated efforts to minimize trade-offs and maximize synergies. However, as in many developing countries, the policy process in South Asia generally follows a sectoral approach that does not take into account the interconnections and interdependence among the three sectors. Although the concept of a water–energy–food nexus is gaining currency, and adaptation to climate change has become an urgent need, little effort has been made so far to understand the linkages between the nexus perspective and adaptation to climate change. Using the Hindu Kush Himalayan region as an example, this article seeks to increase understanding of the interlinkages in the water, energy, and food nexus, explains why it is important to consider this nexus in the context of adaptation responses, and argues that focusing on trade-offs and synergies using a nexus approach could facilitate greater climate change adaptation and help ensure food, water, and energy security by enhancing resource use efficiency and encouraging greater policy coherence. It concludes that a nexus-based adaption approach – which integrates a nexus perspective into climate change adaptation plans and an adaptation perspective into development plans – is crucial for effective adaptation. The article provides a conceptual framework for considering the nexus approach in relation to climate change adaptation, discusses the potential synergies, trade-offs, and offers a broader framework for making adaptation responses more effective.

Policy relevance

This article draws attention to the importance of the interlinkages in the water, energy, and food nexus, and the implications for sustainable development and adaptation. The potential synergies and complementarities among the sectors should be used to guide formulation of effective adaptation options. The issues highlight the need for a shift in policy approaches from a sectoral focus, which can result in competing and counterproductive actions, to an integrated approach with policy coherence among the sectors that uses knowledge of the interlinkages to maximize gain, optimize trade-offs, and avoid negative impacts.