环境变化对中亚干旱区水储量变化的影响（英文）

The spatio-temporal pattern of the global water resource has significantly changed with climate change and intensified human activities. The regional economy and ecological environment are highly affected by terrestrial water storage(TWS), especially in arid areas. To investigate the response relationships between TWS and changing environments(climate change and human activities) in Central Asia, we used the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE) data, Climatic Research Unit(CRU) climate data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) remote sensing data products(MOD16A2, MOD13A3 and MCD12Q1) from 2003 to 2013, as well as the slope and Pearson correlation analysis methods. Results indicate that:(1) TWS in about 77% of the study area decreased from 2003 to 2013. The total change volume of TWS is about 2915.6 × 108 m~3. The areas of decreased TWS are mainly distributed in the middle of Central Asia, while the areas of increased TWS are concentrated in the middle-altitude regions of the Kazakhstan hills and Tarim Basin.(2) TWS in about 5.91% of areas, mainly distributed in the mountain and piedmont zones, is significantly positively correlated with precipitation, while only 3.78% of areas show significant correlation between TWS and temperature. If the response time was delayed by three months, there would be a very good correlation between temperature and TWS.(3) There is a significantly positive relationship between TWS and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) in 13.35% of the study area.(4) The area of significantly positive correlation between TWS and evapotranspiration is about 31.87%, mainly situated in mountainous areas and northwestern Kazakhstan. The reduction of regional TWS is related to precipitation more than evaporation. Increasing farmland area may explain why some areas show increasing precipitation and decreasing evapotranspiration.(5) The influences of land use on TWS are still not very clear. This study could provide scientific data useful for the estimation of changes in TWS with climate change and human activities.     

地形对天山积雪冻融变化的影响分析

天山积雪是新疆水资源的重要来源,地形对积雪的空间分布和消融有重要影响,分析地形对天山积雪冻融过程的影响具有重要的理论意义.基于2005-2014年的MODIS/Terra积雪8 d合成数据（MOD10A2）与数字高程模型（DEM）数据,分析了天山积雪覆盖随高程、坡度和坡向的季节变化规律.分析结果表明：（1）在不同季节里,不同高程中的融雪和积雪过程同步发生,其中在春季和冬季,雪盖变化较大的区域主要分布在低海拔和高海拔地区;而在夏、秋两季,雪盖变化较大的区域主要分布在中海拔地区.（2）在不同季节,不同坡度的积雪冻融过程也同步进行,但春季和冬季积雪呈线性变化,在缓坡和陡坡地区变化明显;夏季和秋季积雪变化缓慢,在中坡变化显著.（3）天山积雪变化随坡向具有对称性和周期性.积雪变化呈现北坡大、南坡小,春、冬季大,夏、秋季小的特点.在波动周期内,夏秋季积雪变化波动较大,变化趋势与春、冬季相反.研究结果可为融雪型洪水预报提供科学依据.     

基于MODIS积雪产品的天山年积雪日数空间分布特征研究

山区积雪是干旱区气候变化的重要指标因子,积雪日数与积雪分布之间有着密切关系。为了研究天山山区积雪日数空间分布特征,以MODIS8d积雪产品MOD10A2（Terra）和MYD10A2（Aqua）为数据源,首先对数据进行最大化合成,获取新疆天山500m×500m分辨率的年积雪日数,然后分析了2002-2014年13a积雪日的年际变化,并结合DEM数据分析了13a天山多年平均积雪日随高程和坡度的变化特征。结果表明：天山积雪日数分布极为不均,最大年平均积雪日数为193d,13a内天山绝大部分地区年积雪日变化趋势较为稳定,稳定区约占天山总面积的83.92%;在研究时段内天山总积雪日数主要集中在30d以内,其比例约为天山总面积的48%;各个高程带积雪日面积分布差异明显,但总体上积雪日数随着高程的增加而增加;从积雪日数随坡向分布来看,北坡、东北坡、东坡、西坡、西北坡所占面积比例（>30d）相对高于其他坡向。该研究结果对干旱区水资源估算具有参考意义。