Monitoring of fault healing after the 1999 Kocaeli, Turkey, earthquake

The North Anatolian fault zone that ruptured during the mainshock of theM 7.4 Kocaeli (Izmit) earthquake of 17 August 1999 has beenmonitored using S wave splitting, in order to test a hypothesisproposed by Tadokoro et al. (1999). This idea is based on the observationof the M 7.2 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake, Japan.After the Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake, a temporal change was detectedin the direction of faster shear wave polarization in 2–3 years after the mainshock (Tadokoro, 1999). Four seismic stations were installed within andnear the fault zone at Kizanlik where the fault offset was 1.5 m, about80 km to the east of the epicenter of the Kocaeli earthquake. Theobservation period was from August 30 to October 27, 1999. Preliminaryresult shows that the average directions of faster shear wave polarization attwo stations were roughly parallel to the fault strike. We expect that thedirection of faster shear wave polarization will change to the same directionas the regional tectonic stress reflecting fault healing process. We havealready carried out a repeated aftershock observation at the same site in2000 for monitoring the fault healing process.     

Extreme midlatitude cyclones and their implications for precipitation and wind speed extremes in simulations of the Maunder Minimum versus present day conditions

Extreme midlatitude cyclone characteristics, precipitation, wind speed events, their inter-relationships, and the connection to large-scale atmospheric patterns are investigated in simulations of a prolonged cold period, known as the Maunder Minimum from 1640 to 1715 and compared with today. An ensemble of six simulations for the Maunder Minimum as well as a control simulation for perpetual 1990 conditions are carried out with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, i.e., the Climate Community System Model (CCSM). The comparison of the simulations shows that in a climate state colder than today the occurrence of cyclones, the extreme events of precipitation and wind speed shift southward in all seasons in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. The extremes of cyclone intensity increases significantly in winter in almost all regions, which is related to a stronger meridional temperature gradient and an increase in lower tropospheric baroclinicity. Extremes of cyclone intensity in subregions of the North Atlantic are related to extremes in precipitation and in wind speed during winter. Moreover, extremes of cyclone intensity are also connected to distinct large-scale atmospheric patterns for the different subregions, but these relationships vanish during summer. Analyzing the mean 1,000 hPa geopotential height change of the Maunder Minimum simulations compared with the control simulation, we find a similar pattern as the correlation pattern with the cyclone intensity index of the southern Europe cyclones. This illustrates that changes in the atmospheric high-frequency, i.e., the simulated southward shift of cyclones in the North Atlantic and the related increase of extreme precipitation and wind speed in particular in the Mediterranean in winter, are associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation changes.     

Possible solar neutron events recorded by the ground-based neutron monitor

Possible solar neutron emission associated with five SMM gamma-ray events on 7 June 1980, 21 June 1980, 6 November 1980, 26 November 1982 and 25 April 1984 was found from analysis of 10-minute records of the ground-based neutron monitor at Tokyo. Of these the two events on 21 June 1980 and 25 April 1984 have been already known as neutron events. The time histories of the neutron monitor count rate are compared with those of the gamma-ray count rate and the possibility of energetic neutron emission at the flare site is discussed.     

Hard X-ray dynamic spectrum of flares observed by Hinotori

Time variations of the hard X-ray spectrum in solar flares are observed by the hard X-ray spectrometer (HXM) aboard the Hinotori satellite. With a new presentation of the dynamic spectrum we have studied the differences between impulsive and gradual hard X-ray bursts. In the impulsive events a “bent” spectrum up to some hundred keV persists at least until the main peak. In the gradual events, on the other hand, a power-law spectrum augmented by a low-energy excess is dominant.     

Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results

In this study, we constructed a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) for the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (CGCM) to investigate the parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity (CS). Previous studies of PPEs have mainly used the atmosphere-slab ocean models. A few PPE studies using a CGCM applied flux corrections, because perturbations in parameters can lead to large radiation imbalances at the top of the atmosphere and climate drifts. We developed a method to prevent climate drifts in PPE experiments using the MIROC5 CGCM without flux corrections. We simultaneously swept 10 parameters in atmosphere and surface schemes. The range of CS (estimated from our 35 ensemble members) was not wide (2.2–3.2?°C). The shortwave cloud feedback related to changes in middle-level cloud albedo dominated the variations in the total feedback. We found three performance metrics for the present climate simulations of middle-level cloud albedo, precipitation, and ENSO amplitude that systematically relate to the variations in shortwave cloud feedback in this PPE.     

Simulated decadal oscillations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a cold climate state

The significance of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) for regional and hemispheric climate change requires a complete understanding using fully coupled climate models. Here we present a persistent, decadal oscillation in a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. While the present study is limited by the lack of comparisons with paleo-proxy records, the purpose is to reveal a new theoretically interesting solution found in the fully-coupled climate model. The model exhibits two multi-century-long stable states with one dominated by decadal MOC oscillations. The oscillations involve an interaction between anomalous advective transport of salt and surface density in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Their time scale is fundamentally determined by the advection. In addition, there is a link between the MOC oscillations and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like sea level pressure anomalies. The analysis suggests an interaction between the NAO and an anomalous subpolar gyre circulation in which sea ice near and south of the Labrador Sea plays an important role in generating a large local thermal anomaly and a meridional temperature gradient. The latter induces a positive feedback via synoptic eddy activity in the atmosphere. In addition, the oscillation only appears when the Nordic Sea is completely covered by sea ice in winter, and deep convection is active only near the Irminger Sea. Such conditions are provided by a substantially colder North Atlantic climate than today.     

The Wide Band Spectrometer on the SOLAR-A

The SOLAR-A spacecraft has spectroscopic capabilities in a wide energy band from soft X-rays to gamma-rays. The Wide Band Spectrometer (WBS), consisting of three kinds of spectrometers, soft X-ray spectrometer (SXS), hard X-ray spectrometer (HXS) and gamma-ray spectrometer (GRS), is installed on SOLAR-A to investigate plasma heating, high-energy particle acceleration, and interaction processes. SXS has two proportional counters and each counter provides 128-channel pulse height data in the 2–30 keV range every 2 s and 2-channel pulse count data every 0.25 s. HXS has a NaI scintillation detector and provides 32-channel pulse height data in the 20–400 keV range every 1 s and 2-channel pulse count data every 0.125 s. GRS has two identical BGO scintillation detectors and each detector provides 128-channel pulse height data in the 0.2–10 MeV range every 4 s and 4-channel pulse count data (0.2–0.7, 0.7–4, 4–7, and 7–10 MeV) every 0.25–0.5 s. In addition, each of the BGO scintillation detectors provides 16-channel pulse height data in the 8–100 MeV range every 4 s and 2-channel pulse count data (8–30 and 30–100 MeV) every 0.5 s. The SXS observations enable one to study the thermal evolution of flare plasma by obtaining time series of electron temperatures and emission measures of hot plasma; the HXS observations enable one to study the electron acceleration and heating mechanisms by obtaining time series of the electron spectrum; and the GRS observations enable one to study the high-energy electron and ion acceleration and interaction processes by obtaining time series of electron and ion spectra.After the launch the name of SOLAR-A has been changed to YOHKOH.     

Electrokinetic phenomena associated with a water injection experiment at the Nojima fault on Awaji Island, Japan

Abstract Self-potential variations were measured to estimate the magnitude of electrokinetic and hydrological parameters (zeta potential and permeability) of the Nojima Fault zone in Awaji, Japan. The study observed self-potential variations that seemed to be associated with water flow from the injection well to the fracture zone, which were induced by turning the injection on and off. Amplitudes of the variations were a few to 0.03 V across 320–450 m dipoles. These variations can be explained well with an electrokinetic model. The quantity k/ζ (permeability/zeta potential) is in the range 1.6 × 10⁻¹³− 5.4 × 10⁻¹³ m²/V. Permeability of the Nojima fault zone can be estimated as approximately 10⁻¹⁶–10⁻¹⁵ m² on the assumption that the zeta potential is in the range –0.01 to –0.001 V.