A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory

We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.

We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.

The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.

ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with M_w > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with M_w up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.

Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates.     

A case study of mollusc and polychaete soft-bottom assemblages submitted to sedimentary instability in the Mediterranean Sea

In the Strait of Messina (Sicily, Central Mediterranean Sea) strong tidal currents, very irregular hydrological regime and related solid load, and local seismic activity cause sediment instability; this area represents therefore a case‐study of a naturally disturbed soft‐bottom environment. In this paper, mollusc and polychaete assemblages of the northern part of the Strait were described. Composition, community structure, eco‐ethological features, trophic guilds and sediment‐type relationships were studied in 64 stations sampled located between 3.5 and 50 m depth in October 1992 by means of a Van Veen grab. A total of 131 species (65 molluscs and 66 polychaetes) were identified. A dense population of the tubicolous polychaete Ditrupa arietina was recognized, together with the occurrence of other species tied to a high sedimentation rate, such as Corbula gibba and Tellina distorta, as well as widespread, mud‐tolerant species (e.g.Chone spp., Hyalinoecia tubicola). Diversity (H′) showed a peak at intermediate depths (10/20 m) and a clear decrease beyond this depth, corresponding to the Ditrupa core population. Multivariate comparison between sediment features and community composition throughout the bathymetric gradient showed a narrow ecocline between two environments subjected to opposite hydrodynamic constraints. In the shallower zone, a wide typology of trophic‐ethological guilds was related to community patchiness, in contrast to a greater functional uniformity of the deeper assemblage, dominated by sessile, semi‐infaunal suspension feeders. A possible role played by a phase of increased rainfall to increase bottom instability, locally emphasized by a previous human activity, is also discussed.     

Fluid Geochemistry as Indicator of Tectonically-Related,Deep Water Circulations in the Sardinian Rift-Campidano Graben (Italy): New Insights from Environmental Isotopes

The EC funded Geochemical Seismic Zonation program (EEC GSZ Project 1996–1998) chose Sardinia as a low-seismicity site, in which the relationships between fluid geochemistry and seismo-tectonics had to be investigated and results compared with outcomes from other selected high-seismicity sites. A first article, examining the role of fault segmentation and seismic quiescence on the geochemical composition of groundwaters and gases, has already been presented (Angelone et al. 2005). This article deals with environmental isotopes which, together with selected hydrochemical data, give hints on tectonically-related fluid circulations. Four water-dominated hydrothermal systems were considered, all located along regional fault systems and discharging groundwaters belonging to the Na–HCO₃ and Na–Cl facies. In the considered systems, groundwater circulation takes place, principally, in the Palaeozoic Crystalline Basement (PCB), with the exception of the Logudoro system, where hydrological circuits develop in the Mesozoic Carbonate Platform (MCP). The high CO₂ contents, the non-attainment of fluid-rock equilibrium and the large lithological variability prevent the construction of a unique hydrogeological–geochemical conceptual model. In this case, stable isotopes provide a useful tool to describe the origin of fluids and their subterranean movements. Stable isotopes of water, integrated with hydrochemical data, indicate that fluids are derived from three main end members. The dominant component is a relatively recent local meteoric water; the second one is marine water; and the third one is a fossil freshwater, depleted in heavy isotopes with respect to modern rains. The latter end member entered the aquifer system in the past, when climatic conditions were greatly different from today. At least two circulation systems can be recognised, namely a shallow cold system and a deep hydrothermal system, as well as two distinct hydrological processes: (1) gravity-controlled descent of cold water towards greater depths and (2) convection linked to a thermal gradient, causing deep fluids to rise up from the hydrothermal reservoir towards the surface. The highly variable δ¹³C_TDIC values suggest the presence of two distinct CO₂ sources, namely, a biogenic one and a thermogenic one. The relation between the isotopic compositions of CO₂ and He indicates an increased mantle signature in uprising CO₂-rich fluids.     

Mt. Melbourne volcano,antarctica: Evidence of seismicity related to volcanic activity

Characterization of the microseismic activity (M _L <2.0) has been performed at Mt. Melbourne since 1990. We recorded a group of low frequency events with common morphological characteristics, i.e., an emerging onset, an unclear second phase and a sharply dropping coda. Spectral analysis of events recorded at more than one station indicates that the seismogram characteristics and spectral content are largely due to source effects. A polarization filter applied to a set of three component data revealed a first phase made up ofP waves followed (after about 0.9–1.4 sec.) by a second phase probably composed ofSH-type waves. Particle motion analysis detected a seismic ray angle direction mainly between N70°E and N110°E and apparent angle of incidence between 35° and 48° for the first phase. The studied seismicity was localized in an area on the eastern slope of Mt. Melbourne Volcano which presents a surface temperature anomaly (Mazzarini andSalvini, 1994). We formulate two hypotheses for the type of earthquakes recorded: 1) long-period events involving active presence of magmatic fluids in the source processes; 2) or the result of fracturing processes (shear?) in a medium characterized by transition between brittle and plastic behaviors. In the latter hypothesis the superficial thermal anomaly may be a symptom of this behavior at depth and is confirmed by the lown values observed for the exponential fit in the codaQ analysis.     

Evidence of recent climatic anomalies at Trieste (Italy)

A recent noticeable climatic anomaly in some meteomarine quantities is analysed based on observations during the period March 1, 1971-February 28, 1993 taken in Trieste (Italy). Marked deviations from the normal values of the coupled quantities atmospheric pressure-solar irradiance and atmospheric pressure-sea level elevation, during the last 22 years, are analysed. The procedures used bring out a clear and persistent configuration of high pressure, high irradiance and low sea level from 1989 on, previously unmatched.     

Modeling of Rayleigh waves dispersion in the Sannio region (Southern Italy) from seismic active refraction data

Short period surface waves, recorded during a seismic refractionsurvey in the Sannio region (Southern Italy), have been modeled to infera shallow velocity model for the area. Based on the decrease of resolutionwith depth, due to the bias on group velocity estimates arising frominterference of the Rayleigh waves with higher modes, we carried out aprocedure of fitting, with synthetic seismograms, of selected filtered traceswith a gaussian filter, having a width at half height equal to 1 Hz and acentral frequency lying in the range [1,4] Hz. We estimated the likelihoodbetween synthetic and observed seismograms by measuring their semblance.In this way we were able to infer a more refined local velocity modelcharacterized by a high Vp and Vs vertical gradient in the sedimentarycover. Two ad hoc resolution studies, based on group velocity andamplitude data respectively, indicate that the local velocity model is a goodvelocity model also for the entire studied area. The increase in the numberof available data when using amplitude information allows us to make amore selective choice in the model parameter space (Vp and Vs of eachlayer) and to solve for the Vp/Vs ratio. The inferred Vp velocity in thehalf-space is equal to 2.8 km/s. This value is in excellent agreement withthat inferred by other authors (3 km/s) by modeling P-wave travel timevs. distance. The best-fit model furnish low Vp/Vs for the sedimentarycover so indicating a high degree of the sediment's compaction in thestudied area. The inferred shallow high-velocity gradient indicates thatthe shallow sedimentary layer in the area could trap and focus the energytraveling into it.     

An estimate of hypocentre location accuracy in a large network: possible implications for tectonic studies in Italy

Data recorded by the Italian Telemetered Seismic Network (ITSN) of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica (ING) have been widely used in recent years to image slab structures and to find evidence for active processes along the Italian Peninsula. However, the use of seismic data for geostructural purposes may be affected by the well-known trade-off between earthquake location and seismic-velocity parameters. Furthermore, the confidence ellipse predicted by standard procedures may be inadequate for the representation of the probable error of a computed localization. This paper evaluates the probable errors on the hypocentre determinations of the seismic events recorded by the ITSN, using a Monte Carlo method.
We compute synthetic arrival times using a 1-D velocity model appropriate as an average for the Italian area. The hypocentres used are all those recorded by the ITSN during the period January 1992 to March 1994 (1972 events). Station locations are those of the current ITSN configuration. The synthetic arrival times are perturbed with a Gaussian distribution of errors and input to ING's standard hypocentral location procedure, but using crustal velocities differing by 10 per cent from those used to generate them. Each simulation is repeated at least 30 times. Average absolute shifts of hypocentres are assessed in grid cells of linear dimension 33 km covering the whole Italian region.
For regions within the ITSN, shifts are typically 5–10 km in location and up to 20 km in depth. However, for offshore and coastal regions, they are much greater: 50 km or more in both location and depth (far exceeding the equivalent uncertainties quoted by ING bulletins). Possible consequences of this are highlighted by producing a cross-section of subcrustal hypocentres from the Adriatic to the Tyrrhenian Sea, where the large uncertainty in depth precludes any confident interpretation of dipping tectonic features.