Comparison of Observations at ACE and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ulysses</Emphasis> with Enlil Model Results: Stream Interaction Regions During Carrington Rotations 2016 – 2018

During the latitudinal alignment in 2004, ACE and Ulysses encountered two stream interaction regions (SIRs) each Carrington rotation from 2016 to 2018, at 1 and 5.4 AU, respectively. More SIR-driven shocks were observed at 5.4 AU than at 1 AU. Three small SIRs at 1 AU merged to form a strong SIR at 5.4 AU. We compare the Enlil model results with spacecraft observations from four aspects: i) the accuracy of the latest versions of models (WSA v2.2 and Enlil v2.7) vs. old versions (WSA v1.6 and Enlil v2.6), ii) the sensitivity to different solar magnetograms (MWO vs. NSO), iii) the sensitivity to different coronal models (WSA vs. MAS), iv) the predictive capability at 1 AU vs. 5.4 AU. We find the models can capture field sector boundaries with some time offset. Although the new versions have improved the SIR timing prediction, the time offset can be up to two days at 1 AU and four days at 5.4 AU. The models cannot capture some small-scale structures, including shocks and small SIRs at 1 AU. For SIRs, the temperature and total pressure are often underestimated, while the density compression is overestimated. For slow wind, the density is usually overestimated, while the temperature, magnetic field, and total pressure are often underestimated. The new versions have improved the prediction of the speed and density, but they need more robust scaling factors for magnetic field. The Enlil model results are very sensitive to different solar magnetograms and coronal models. It is hard to determine which magnetogram-coronal model combination is superior to others. Higher-resolution solar and coronal observations, a mission closer to the Sun, together with simulations of greater resolution and added physics, are ways to make progress for the solar wind modeling.     

From the Sun to the Earth: The 13 May 2005 Coronal Mass Ejection

We report the results of a multi-instrument, multi-technique, coordinated study of the solar eruptive event of 13 May 2005. We discuss the resultant Earth-directed (halo) coronal mass ejection (CME), and the effects on the terrestrial space environment and upper Earth atmosphere. The interplanetary CME (ICME) impacted the Earth’s magnetosphere and caused the most-intense geomagnetic storm of 2005 with a Disturbed Storm Time (Dst) index reaching ?263 nT at its peak. The terrestrial environment responded to the storm on a global scale. We have combined observations and measurements from coronal and interplanetary remote-sensing instruments, interplanetary and near-Earth in-situ measurements, remote-sensing observations and in-situ measurements of the terrestrial magnetosphere and ionosphere, along with coronal and heliospheric modelling. These analyses are used to trace the origin, development, propagation, terrestrial impact, and subsequent consequences of this event to obtain the most comprehensive view of a geo-effective solar eruption to date. This particular event is also part of a NASA-sponsored Living With a Star (LWS) study and an on-going US NSF-sponsored Solar, Heliospheric, and INterplanetary Environment (SHINE) community investigation.     

A Multi-Observatory Inter-Comparison of Line-of-Sight Synoptic Solar Magnetograms

The observed photospheric magnetic field is a crucial parameter for understanding a range of fundamental solar and heliospheric phenomena. Synoptic maps, in particular, which are derived from the observed line-of-sight photospheric magnetic field and built up over a period of 27 days, are the main driver for global numerical models of the solar corona and inner heliosphere. Yet, in spite of 60 years of measurements, quantitative estimates remain elusive. In this study, we compare maps from seven solar observatories (Stanford/WSO, NSO/KPVT, NSO/SOLIS, NSO/GONG, SOHO/MDI, UCLA/MWO, and SDO /HMI) to identify consistencies and differences among them. We find that while there is a general qualitative consensus, there are also some significant differences. We compute conversion factors that relate measurements made by one observatory to another using both synoptic map pixel-by-pixel and histogram-equating techniques, and we also estimate the correlation between datasets. For example, Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) synoptic maps must be multiplied by a factor of 3?–?4 to match Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO) estimates. Additionally, we find no evidence that the MWO saturation correction factor should be applied to WSO data, as has been done in previous studies. Finally, we explore the relationship between these datasets over more than a solar cycle, demonstrating that, with a few notable exceptions, the conversion factors remain relatively constant. While our study was able to quantitatively describe the relationship between the datasets, it did not uncover any obvious “ground truth.” We offer several suggestions for how this may be addressed in the future.     

Cross-Media Models of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed and Airshed

A continuous, deterministic watershed model of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, linked to an atmospheric deposition model is used to examine nutrient loads to the Chesapeake Bay under different management scenarios. The Hydrologic Simulation Program - Fortran, Version 11 simulation code is used at an hourly time-step for ten years of simulation in the watershed. The Regional Acid Deposition Model simulates management options in reducing atmospheric deposition of nitrogen. Nutrient loads are summed over daily periods and used for loading a simulation of the Chesapeake estuary employing the Chesapeake Bay Estuary Model Package. Averaged over the ten-year simulation, loads are compared for scenarios under 1985 conditions, forecasted conditions in the year 2000, and estimated conditions under a limit of technology scenario. Limit of technology loads are a 50%, 64%, and 42% reduction from the 1985 loads in total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total suspended solids, respectively. Urban loads, which include point source, on-site wastewater disposal systems, combined sewer overflows, and nonpoint source loads have the highest flux of nutrient loads to the Chesapeake, followed by crop land uses.on assignment from NOAA Air Resources Laboratory     

Comparative Study of MHD Modeling of the Background Solar Wind

Knowledge about the background solar wind plays a crucial role in the framework of space-weather forecasting. In-situ measurements of the background solar wind are only available for a few points in the heliosphere where spacecraft are located, therefore we have to rely on heliospheric models to derive the distribution of solar-wind parameters in interplanetary space. We test the performance of different solar-wind models, namely Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere/ENLIL (MAS/ENLIL), Wang–Sheeley–Arge/ENLIL (WSA/ENLIL), and MAS/MAS, by comparing model results with in-situ measurements from spacecraft located at 1 AU distance to the Sun (ACE, Wind). To exclude the influence of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), we chose the year 2007 as a time period with low solar activity for our comparison. We found that the general structure of the background solar wind is well reproduced by all models. The best model results were obtained for the parameter solar-wind speed. However, the predicted arrival times of high-speed solar-wind streams have typical uncertainties of the order of about one day. Comparison of model runs with synoptic magnetic maps from different observatories revealed that the choice of the synoptic map significantly affects the model performance.     

Assessment of Impact of Storm on Point Source Pollutant Transport in Estuary by Dissolved Tracer Modeling

A continuously discharged dissolved conservative tracer was simulated with the Chesapeake Bay Estuary Model Package to study pollutant transport in the estuary in response to point source loads and the impact of the November, 1985 storm. A visualization technology is applied to show 3-dimensional concentration variations in a continuous daily time sequence. The differential responses of daily net transport during storms versus inter-storm periods can be observed from an MPEG movie. It may take 2–3 months for a tracer to travel from the fall-line to the mouth of a river during relatively dry seasons, only 2 weeks in some medium storms, and less than 5 days in a big storm. Plots of daily concentrations from eleven selected locations in the estuary provide quantitative information on the response of tracer concentration to flows. The magnitude and time of tracer peaks related with different weather events in these locations reflect the combined effects of flows from various directions to these locations. The lower tributaries (which are closer to the Bay mouth) are affected more than the upper tributaries by a source discharged at a mid-tributary. A storm can transport materials more effectively to the Bay and affect adjacent tributaries more severely.     

A Twisted Flux Rope Model for Coronal Mass Ejections and Two-Ribbon Flares

We present a new approach to the theory of large-scale solar eruptive phenomena such as coronal mass ejections and two-ribbon flares, in which twisted flux tubes play a crucial role. We show that it is possible to create a highly nonlinear three-dimensional force-free configuration consisting of a twisted magnetic flux rope representing the magnetic structure of a prominence (surrounded by an overlaying, almost potential, arcade) and exhibiting an S-shaped structure, as observed in soft X-ray sigmoid structures. We also show that this magnetic configuration cannot stay in equilibrium and that a considerable amount of magnetic energy is released during its disruption. Unlike most previous models, the amount of magnetic energy stored in the configuration prior to its disruption is so large that it may become comparable to the energy of the open field.     

The Recovery of CME-Related Dimmings and the ICME’s Enduring Magnetic Connection to the Sun

It is generally accepted that transient coronal holes (TCHs, dimmings) correspond to the magnetic footpoints of CMEs that remain rooted in the Sun as the CME expands out into the interplanetary space. However, the observation that the average intensity of the 12 May 1997 dimmings recover to their pre-eruption intensity in SOHO/EIT data within 48 hours, whilst suprathermal unidirectional electron heat fluxes are observed at 1 AU in the related ICME more than 70 hours after the eruption, leads us to question why and how the dimmings disappear whilst the magnetic connectivity is maintained. We also examine two other CME-related dimming events: 13 May 2005 and 6 July 2006. We study the morphology of the dimmings and how they recover. We find that, far from exhibiting a uniform intensity, dimmings observed in SOHO/EIT data have a deep central core and a more shallow extended dimming area. The dimmings recover not only by shrinking of their outer boundaries but also by internal brightenings. We quantitatively demonstrate that the model developed by Fisk and Schwadron (Astrophys. J. 560, 425, 2001) of interchange reconnections between “open” magnetic field and small coronal loops is a strong candidate for the mechanism facilitating the recovery of the dimmings. This process disperses the concentration of  “open” magnetic field (forming the dimming) out into the surrounding quiet Sun, thus recovering the intensity of the dimmings whilst still maintaining the magnetic connectivity to the Sun. Electronic Supplementary Material  The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Global MHD Modeling of the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere for the Whole Heliosphere Interval

In an effort to understand the three-dimensional structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere during the Whole Heliosphere Interval (WHI), we have developed a global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) solution for Carrington rotation (CR) 2068. Our model, which includes energy-transport processes, such as coronal heating, conduction of heat parallel to the magnetic field, radiative losses, and the effects of Alfvén waves, is capable of producing significantly better estimates of the plasma temperature and density in the corona than have been possible in the past. With such a model, we can compute emission in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and X-ray wavelengths, as well as scattering in polarized white light. Additionally, from our heliospheric solutions, we can deduce magnetic-field and plasma parameters along specific spacecraft trajectories. In this paper, we present a general analysis of the large-scale structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere during WHI, focusing, in particular, on i) helmet-streamer structure; ii) the location of the heliospheric current sheet; and iii) the geometry of corotating interaction regions. We also compare model results with i) EUV observations from the EIT instrument onboard SOHO; and ii) in-situ measurements made by the STEREO-A and B spacecraft. Finally, we contrast the global structure of the corona and inner heliosphere during WHI with its structure during the Whole Sun Month (WSM) interval. Overall, our model reproduces the essential features of the observations; however, many discrepancies are present. We discuss several likely causes for them and suggest how model predictions may be improved in the future.