Radar observations of Itokawa in 2004 and improved shape estimation

Abstract— We present June 2004 radar images of asteroid 25143 Itokawa (1998 SF36) that improve upon the longitude‐latitude coverage of images obtained in 2001 by Ostro et al. (2004) and use the 2001–2004 data to refine that paper's constraints on Itokawa's shape. The 2004 images, the first of the asteroid's southern side, look distinctly different from the 2001 images, revealing leading edges that are much more curved and rugged than the nearly convex leading edges seen at northern latitudes in 2001. Itokawa is shaped like a slightly asymmetrical, bent, lumpy ellipsoid with dimensions along the principal axes within 10% of 594 times 320 times 288 m. To illustrate the uncertainty space associated with shape reconstruction from images with suboptimal orientational coverage, we present two alternative three‐dimensional models of the object.     

Swimming with…Devonian fish

Armoured jawless fish, or 'ostracoderms', lived 450–360 million years ago, and display unusual morphologies, unlike any modern fish group. Since they left no living descendants, their mode of swimming has, until recently, remained speculative, although this is a crucial question as the first true pectoral fins evolved within the 'ostracoderms'. The discovery of the oldest-known fish trails, from the Early Devonian (400 million year old) 'Lower Old Red Sandstone' of south-east Wales offers new insights into the swimming behaviour of these early fish, notably the osteostracan 'ostracoderms' (or cephalaspids), whose horseshoe-shaped head and paddle-shaped pectoral fins have remained a functional riddle.     

Inter-annual variability in larval supply to populations of three invertebrate taxa in the northern California Current

We investigated sources of inter-annual variability in larval supply to crab and sea urchin populations at Bodega Head and Point Reyes in northern California. During the spring and summer upwelling seasons of the years 1992 through 1997 we monitored the weekly settlement rates of nine species of crabs and two species of sea urchins. As observed in previous studies, daily values of alongshore windstress, temperature and salinity provided evidence for the poleward flow of relatively warm, low salinity water from south of Point Reyes, an apparent retention zone, during upwelling relaxation events. In years dominated by these events (1992, 1993, 1995 and 1996) we observed that alongshore windstress, temperature and salinity were coherent and temperature was significantly correlated with cancrid crab settlement. During these years the magnitude of cancrid crab settlement and the fraction of cancrid crabs relative to other crab species settling were high. Over four years of concurrent sampling there was consistently greater cancrid crab settlement at the Point Reyes site, within the retention zone, than at Bodega Head. Settlement of non-cancrid crabs (porcellanids, grapsids, pagurids and majids) was not as closely linked to intra-annual patterns of upwelling and relaxation, possibly due to the shorter seasonal availability of larvae allowing for the influence of fewer relaxation events. Settlement of this group among years was positively correlated with environmental indicators of strong seasonal upwelling; high salinity, Bakun upwelling index and low temperature. Sea urchin settlement events were observed in June and July of 1992, 1994 and 1997 during warming periods when salinity and temperature were increasing and alongshore windstress was low. Across the six years of the study, we found that cancrid crab larvae had a more even seasonal availability than larvae of non-cancrid species, which settled in greatest numbers during the early portion of the upwelling season. Sea urchins settled in greatest numbers during the later part of the upwelling season. Together these patterns demonstrate the taxon-specific way that inter-annual variability in larval supply is forced by the coincidence of larval availability with favorable physical transport mechanisms.     

An evaluation of marine bird population trends following the Exxon Valdez oil spill, Prince William Sound, Alaska

We examined post-spill trends (1989-1998) of marine bird populations in Prince William Sound (PWS) following the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS) to evaluate recovery of injured taxa. Two criteria were employed. First, we examined population trends of injured taxa only in the oiled area of PWS using regression models. Second, we examined population trends of injured taxa in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area using homogeneity of the slopes tests. We considered a population recovering if there was a positive trend using either criteria. We considered a population not recovering if there was no trend using either criteria or a negative trend in the oiled area. A significant negative trend in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area was considered a continuing and increasing effect. Most taxa for which injury was previously demonstrated were not recovering and some taxa showed evidence of increasing effects nine years after the oil spill. Four taxa (loons Gavia spp, Harlequin Duck Histrionicus histrionicus, Bufflehead Bucephala spp, and North-western Crow Corvus caurinus) showed weak to very weak evidence of recovery. None of these taxa showed positive trends in both winter and summer. Nine taxa (grebes Podiceps spp, cormorants Phalacrocorax spp, Black Oystercatcher Haematopus bachmani, Mew Gull Larus canus, Glaucous-winged Gull Larus glaucescens, terns Sterna spp, murres Uria spp, Pigeon Guillemot Cepphus columba, and murrelets Brachyramphus spp) showed no evidence of recovery during summer or winter. Four taxa (scoters Melanitta spp, mergansers Mergus spp, goldeneyes Bucephala spp, and Black-legged Kittiwaka Rissa tridactyla) showed evidence of continuing, increasing effects. We showed evidence of slow recovery, lack of recovery, and divergent population trends in many taxa which utilize shoreline and nearshore habitats where oil is likely to persist. Potential lingering spill effects and natural variability appear to be acting in concert in delaying recovery of many PWS bird populations.     

Reliability analysis of drilled shaft behavior using finite difference method and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Monte Carlo</Emphasis> simulation

Load displacement analysis of drilled shafts can be accomplished by utilizing the “t-z” method, which models soil resistance along the length and tip of the drilled shaft as a series of springs. For non-linear soil springs, the governing differential equation that describes the soil-structure interaction may be discretized into a set of algebraic equations based upon finite difference methods. This system of algebraic equations may be solved to determine the load–displacement behavior of the drilled shaft when subjected to compression or pullout. By combining the finite difference method with Monte Carlo simulation techniques, a probabilistic load–displacement analysis can be conducted. The probabilistic analysis is advantageous compared to standard factor of safety design because uncertainties with the shaft–soil interface and tip properties can be independently quantified. This paper presents a reliability analysis of drilled shaft behavior by combining the finite difference technique for analyzing non-linear load–displacement behavior with Monte Carlo simulation method. As a result we develop probabilistic relationships for drilled shaft design for both total stress (undrained) and effective stress (drained) parameters. The results are presented in the form of factor of safety or resistance factors suitable for serviceability design of drilled shafts.     

Quantifying geographic variations in associations between alcohol distribution and violence: a comparison of geographically weighted regression and spatially varying coefficient models

Past studies consistently indicate measurable local associations between alcohol distribution and the incidence of violence. These results, coupled with measurements of spatial correlation, reveal the importance of spatial analysis in the study of the interaction of alcohol and violence. While studies increasingly incorporate spatial correlation among model residuals to improve precision and reduce bias, to date, most analyses assume associations that are constant and independent of location, an assumption coming under increasing scrutiny in the quantitative geography literature. In this paper, we review and contrast two approaches for the estimation of and inference for spatially heterogeneous effects (i.e., associative factors whose impacts on the outcome of interest vary throughout geographic space). Specifically, we provide an in-depth comparison of “geographically weighted regression” models (allowing covariate effects to vary in space but only allowing relatively ad hoc inference) with “variable coefficient” models (allowing varying effects via spatial random fields and providing model-based estimation and inference, but requiring more advanced computational techniques). We compare the approaches with respect to underlying conceptual structures, computational implementation, and inferential output. We apply both approaches to violent crime, illegal drug arrest, and alcohol distribution data from Houston, Texas and compare results in light of the differing methodological structures of the two approaches.     

A critique of the internal tracer method for estimating contaminant degradation rates

The internal tracer method for estimating contaminant degradation rates separates the attenuation effects not associated with degradation by using a codisposed recalcitrant internal tracer to normalize the degrading contaminant concentration. The remaining attenuation between the internal tracer and degrading contaminant is attributed to degradation and the degradation rate half-life is estimated from the first-order decay equation. An analytical solution of the advection- dispersion equation was used to evaluate flow-and-transport conditions that could result in incorrect estimates of contaminant degradation rate constants. Flow-and-transport characteristics that result in overestimating degradation rates were of particular interest because the internal tracer method often used to demonstrate natural attenuation can achieve remedial objectives. The analytical solution was also used to estimate the magnitude of error associated with using the internal tracer method at an example site and to explain different degradation rates estimated using tracers with different decay rate constants.