On the Bayesian analysis of the earthquake hazard in the North-East Indian peninsula

The Bayesian extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences has been used to estimate the seismic hazard in 12 seismogenic zones of the North-East Indian peninsula. The Bayesian approach has been used very efficiently to combine the prior information on seismicity obtained from geological data with historical observations in many seismogenic zones of the world. The basic parameters to obtain the prior estimate of seismicity are the seismic moment, slip rate, earthquake recurrence rate and magnitude. These estimates are then updated in terms of Bayes’ theorem and historical evaluations of seismicity associated with each zone. From the Bayesian analysis of extreme earthquake occurrences for North-East Indian peninsula, it is found that for T = 5 years, the probability of occurrences of magnitude (M _w = 5.0–5.5) is greater than 0.9 for all zones. For M _w = 6.0, four zones namely Z1 (Central Himalayas), Z5 (Indo-Burma border), Z7 (Burmese arc) and Z8 (Burma region) exhibit high probabilities. Lower probability is shown by some zones namely␣Z4, Z12, and rest of the zones Z2, Z3, Z6, Z9, Z10 and Z11 show moderate probabilities.     

Investigation of Arsenotrophic Microbiome in Arsenic‐Affected Bangladesh Groundwater

Arsenotrophic bacteria contribute to the nutrient cycling in arsenic (As) affected groundwater. This study employed a culture‐independent and ‐dependent investigation of arsenotrophic microbiomes in As affected groundwater samples collected from Madhabpur, Sonatengra, and Union Porishod in Singair Upazila, Manikganj, Bangladesh. Total As contents, detected by Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry (AAS) of the samples, were 47 µg/L (Madhabpur, SNGW‐1), 53 µg/L (Sonatengra, SNGW‐2), and 12 µg/L (Union porishod, SNGW‐3), whereas the control well (SNGW‐4; depths >150 m) showed As content of 6 µg/L. Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis (DGGE) analysis of the amplified 16S rRNA gene from As‐affected groundwater samples revealed the dominance of aerobic bacteria Pseudomonas within heterogeneous bacterial populations. DGGE of heterotrophic enrichments supplemented with arsenite [As (III)] for 4 weeks showed the dominance of Chryseobacterium, Flavobacterium, and Aquabacterium, whereas the dominant genera in that of autotrophic enrichments were Aeromonas, Acinetobacter, and Pseudomonas. Cultured bacteria retrieved from both autotrophic and heterotrophic enrichments were distinguished into nine genotypes belonging to Chryseobacterium, Acinetobacter, Escherichia, Pseudomonas, Stenotrophomonas, Janibacter, Staphylococcus, and Bacillus. They exhibited varying range of As(III) tolerance from 4 to 27 mM. As(III) transformation potential was confirmed within the isolates with oxidation rate as high as 0.143 mM/h for Pseudomonas sp. Sn 28. The arsenotrophic microbiome specifies their potential role in groundwater As‐cycling and their genetic information provide the scientific basis for As‐bioremediation.     

Site-specific Microzonation Study in Delhi Metropolitan City by 2-D Modelling of SH and P-SV Waves

— Delhi – the capital of India lies on a severe earthquake hazard threat not only from local earthquakes but also from Himalayan events just 200–250 km apart. The seismic ground motion in a part of Delhi City is computed with a hybrid technique based on the modal summation and the finite-difference scheme for site-specific strong ground motion modelling. Complete realistic SH and #E5/E5#-SV wave seismograms are computed along two geological cross sections, (1) north-south, from Inter State Bus Terminal (ISBT) to Sewanagar and (2) east-west, from Tilak Bridge to Punjabi Bagh. Two real earthquake sources of July 15, 1720 (MMI=IX, M=7.4) and August 27, 1960 (M=6.0) have been used in modelling. The response spectra ratio (RSR), i.e. the response spectra computed from the signals synthesized along the laterally varying section and normalized by the response spectra computed from the corresponding signals, synthesized for the bedrock reference regional model, have been determined. As expected, the sedimentary cover causes an increase of the signal amplitude, particularly in the radial and transverse components. To further check the site-effects, we reversed the source location to the other side of the cross section and recomputed the site amplifications. There are only a few sites where a large amplification is invariant with respect to the two source locations considered. The RSR ranges between 5 to 10 in the frequency range from 2.8 to 3.7 Hz for the radial and transverse components of motion along the NS cross section. Along the EW cross section RSR varies between 3.5 to 7.5 in the frequency range from 3.5 to 4.1 Hz. The amplification of the vertical component is considerable at high frequency (>4 Hz.) whereas it is negligible in lower frequency range.     

Analysis of travel time,sources of water and well protection zones with groundwater models

This study compares numerical models with analytical solutions in computing travel times and radius of protection zones for a pumping well located in an unconfined aquifer with uniform recharge and in a semi-confined aquifer. Numerical models were capable of delineating protection zones using particle tracking method in both cases. However, protection zones defined by travel time criterion can only protect small percent of source water to the well; large percent of source water is not protected which may pose a risk of pollution of source water to the well. The case study of Leggeloo well field in the Netherlands indicates that although a well field protection area was enforced in 1980s, elevated nitrate concentration has been monitored in the abstracted water since 1990s. The analysis of protection areas shows that the current protection area only protects 37.4% of recharge water to the well field. A large protection area must be adopted in order to safeguard the sustainable water supply for the local community     

Coda Q Estimates in the Andaman Islands Using Local Earthquakes

The attenuation property of Andaman Island has been investigated analyzing coda waves from 57 local earthquakes in the magnitude range of 2.0–4.9, using the single backscattering model. These earthquakes waveforms, recorded on five broadband seismographs sited over the island from north to south during Nov. 2003 to March 2004, have been used to calculate the frequency dependent Coda Q (Q _c ) applying the time domain coda-decay method. The Coda Q, computed at central frequencies from (0.5–12) Hz and five-lapse time windows from 40 to 80 s, progressively increases from 105 f ^0.88 in the north Andaman to 135 f ^0.79 in the south Andaman with an average of 119 f ^0.80. The average Q _c values vary from 75 ± 42 at 0.5 Hz to 697 ± 54 at 12 Hz central frequency for 40 s lapse time window, while for 80 s lapse time window its variation is from 117 ± 38 at 0.5 Hz to 1256 ± 115 at 12 Hz. The Q _c estimated at different lapse times manifests a significant variation from 122f ^0.75 to 174f ^0.73, corresponding to lapse time window lengths of 40 and 80 s, respectively. The variation of Q _c with frequency, lapse time and also with the location of seismograph reflects the marked structural and compositional inhomogeneity with depth along the Andaman Islands. These observations are well correlated with the seismicity pattern and distinct high angle subduction beneath the island.     

Neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for India—a preventive tool for disaster mitigation

Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic wave generation and propagation processes allow for reliable numerical and analytical models of waveform generation and propagation. From the simulation of ground motion, it is easy to extract the desired earthquake hazard parameters. Accordingly, a scenario-based approach to seismic hazard assessment has been developed, namely the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA), which allows for a wide range of possible seismic sources to be used in the definition of reliable scenarios by means of realistic waveforms modelling. Such reliable and comprehensive characterization of expected earthquake ground motion is essential to improve building codes, particularly for the protection of critical infrastructures and for land use planning. Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489–508, 2003) published the first ever neo-deterministic seismic hazard map of India by computing synthetic seismograms with input data set consisting of structural models, seismogenic zones, focal mechanisms and earthquake catalogues. As described in Panza et al. (Adv Geophys 53:93–165, 2012), the NDSHA methodology evolved with respect to the original formulation used by Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489–508, 2003): the computer codes were improved to better fit the need of producing realistic ground shaking maps and ground shaking scenarios, at different scale levels, exploiting the most significant pertinent progresses in data acquisition and modelling. Accordingly, the present study supplies a revised NDSHA map for India. The seismic hazard, expressed in terms of maximum displacement (Dmax), maximum velocity (Vmax) and design ground acceleration (DGA), has been extracted from the synthetic signals and mapped on a regular grid over the studied territory.     

Uses of invasive alien plant species in Rema-Kalenga Wildlife Sanctuary of Bangladesh

An exploratory survey was conducted on the uses and role of invasive alien species(IAS) to local livelihoods in the Rema-Kalenga Wildlife Sanctuary in the northeastern hilly region of Bangladesh.Vegetation was sampled in 50 quadrates,each 10 m×10 m,and 25 line transects,each 50 m×20 m,through a combination of random and systematic sampling.Group discussions were also arranged with fifty local inhabitants(17 % of the total inhabitants) to learn the various uses of IAS.A total of 17 alien plant species belonging to 10 different families,of which Leguminosae constitutes the highest number(5 species),include tree(53%) followed by herb(12%),shrub(12%) and others(weed,climber and palm).The majority of the identified species were found to be used for fuel,followed by timber production,medicinal or curative uses,fodder,and many others.In addition to providing various forest products,alien tree species planted in forest plantation help provide many vital ecosystem services such as soil amelioration through nitrogen fixation.It is true that the alien species have some negative impacts on local ecosystems,and not all of them are harmful.Therefore,a national programme must be initiated to distinguish the harmful from the harmless species and to identify the uses and impacts of the former and latter.     

Paleoseismogeological Investigations in a “Seismic Gap” in the Northwest Caucasus Compared to the West Himalayan Region

In this article we have compared the results of seismotectonic and paleoseismogeologic investigations for representative segments of the two fold systems of the Alpine-Himalayan mobile belt (in the North- west Caucasus and West Himalayas). It has been found that during the previously identified “seismic gaps,” in both cases, we are dealing with primary dislocations (seismic ruptures) of ancient historical and prehistoric strong earthquakes. According to estimations, the magnitude of one-act seismogenic displacements in the first region was about 6.5-7.0 m, and the recurrence period ranges from 500 to 1500 years on average. In the West Himalayas, the overthrust displacements along the ruptures were 6-7 m, which corresponds to an 8.0-magnitude earthquake. At the same time, the recurrence period of strong earthquakes during a seismic gap in the Himalayas was 500-1000 years, which is similar to that in the Caucasus. The data collected also demonstrate the correct preliminary estimation of the seismic potential of zones of seismic quiescence in both the studied fold systems.     

Pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic displacements associated with the Bhuj 2001 earthquake derived from recent and historic geodetic data

The 26th January 2001 Bhuj earthquake occurred in the Kachchh Rift Basin which has a long history of major earthquakes. Great Triangulation Survey points (GTS) were first installed in the area in 1856–60 and some of these were measured using Global Positioning System (GPS) in the months of February and July 2001. Despite uncertainties associated with repairs and possible reconstruction of points in the past century, the re-measurements reveal pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic deformation related to Bhuj earthquake. More than 25 Μ-strain contraction north of the epicenter appears to have occurred in the past 140 years corresponding to a linear convergence rate of approximately 10 mm/yr across the Rann of Kachchh. Motion of a single point at Jamnagar 150 km south of the epicenter in the 4 years prior to the earthquake, and GTS-GPS displacements in Kathiawar suggests that pre-seismic strain south of the epicenter was small and differs insignificantly from that measured elsewhere in India. Of the 20 points measured within 150 km of the epicenter, 12 were made at existing GTS points which revealed epicentral displacements of up to 1 m, and strain changes exceeding 30 Μ-strain. Observed displacements are consistent with reverse co-seismic slip. Re-measurements in July 2001 of one GTS point (Hathria) and eight new points established in February reveal post-seismic deformation consistent with continued slip on the Bhuj rupture zone.