An upgraded version of the Eta model

Upgrades implemented over a number of years in an open source version of the Eta model, posted at the CPTEC web site http://etamodel.cptec.inpe.br/, are summarized and examples of benefits are shown. The version originates from the NCEP’s Workstation Eta code posted on the NCEP web site http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/wrkstn_eta, which differs from the NCEP’s latest operational Eta by having the WRF-NMM nonhydrostatic option included. Most of the upgrades made resulted from attention paid to less than satisfactory performance noted in several Eta results, and identification of the reasons for the problem. Others came from simple expectation that including a feature that is physically justified but is missing in the code should help. The most notable of the upgrades are the introduction of the so-called sloping steps, or discretized shaved cells topography; piecewise-linear finite-volume vertical advection of dynamic variables; vapor and hydrometeor loading in the hydrostatic equation, and changes aimed at refining the convection schemes available in the Eta. Several other modifications have to do with the calculation of exchange coefficients, conservation in the vertical diffusion, and diagnostic calculation of 10-m winds. Several examples showing improved performance resulting from the dynamics changes are given. One includes a case of unrealistically low temperatures in several mountain basins generated by a centered vertical advection difference scheme’s unphysical advection from below ground, removed by its replacement with a finite-volume scheme. Another is that of increased katabatic winds in the Terra Nova Bay Antarctica region. Successful forecast of the severe downslope zonda wind case in the lee of the highest peaks of the Andes is also shown, and some of the recent successful verification results of the use of the upgraded model are pointed out. The code is used at numerous places, and along with setup information it is available for outside users at the CPTEC Eta web site given above.     

Paleomagnetism of the Istria peninsula, Yugoslavia

280 core samples were collected from Upper Jurassic, Cretaceous and Eocene sediments outcropping in the Istria peninsula (Yugoslavia). Due to the very low intensities of the initial natural remanent magnetizations, more than 50% of the collection, consisting mainly of rock samples of Jurassic and Eocene sediments, was not suitable for paleomagnetic studies.The Cretaceous samples yield a mean paleomagnetic pole (lat. 53°, long. 275° and α₉₅ = 4.8°), which is significantly different from the African and European paleomagnetic poles of the same age. The position of the Istria peninsula on the autochthonous Adriatic platform allows the result to be interpreted as applicable to all the autochthonous Periadriatic region. This new paleomagnetic result indicates that the autochthonous Adriatic platform rotated counterclockwise over an angle of about 30° with respect to Africa in post-Mesozoic times.     

The space environment of Mercury at the times of the second and third MESSENGER flybys

The second and third flybys of Mercury by the MESSENGER spacecraft occurred, respectively, on 6 October 2008 and on 29 September 2009. In order to provide contextual information about the solar wind properties and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) near the planet at those times, we have used an empirical modeling technique combined with a numerical physics-based solar wind model. The Wang–Sheeley–Arge (WSA) method uses solar photospheric magnetic field observations (from Earth-based instruments) in order to estimate the inner heliospheric radial flow speed and radial magnetic field out to 21.5 solar radii from the Sun. This information is then used as input to the global numerical magnetohydrodynamic model, ENLIL, which calculates solar wind velocity, density, temperature, and magnetic field strength and polarity throughout the inner heliosphere. WSA-ENLIL calculations are presented for the several-week period encompassing the second and third flybys. This information, in conjunction with available MESSENGER data, aid in understanding the Mercury flyby observations and provide a basis for global magnetospheric modeling. We find that during both flybys, the solar wind conditions were very quiescent and would have provided only modest dynamic driving forces for Mercury's magnetospheric system.     

Current Status and Future Challenges of Weather Radar Polarimetry: Bridging the Gap between Radar Meteorology/Hydrology/Engineering and Numerical Weather Prediction

After decades of research and development, the WSR-88 D(NEXRAD) network in the United States was upgraded with dual-polarization capability, providing polarimetric radar data(PRD) that have the potential to improve weather observations,quantification, forecasting, and warnings. The weather radar networks in China and other countries are also being upgraded with dual-polarization capability. Now, with radar polarimetry technology having matured, and PRD available both nationally and globally, it is important to understand the current status and future challenges and opportunities. The potential impact of PRD has been limited by their oftentimes subjective and empirical use. More importantly, the community has not begun to regularly derive from PRD the state parameters, such as water mixing ratios and number concentrations, used in numerical weather prediction(NWP) models.In this review, we summarize the current status of weather radar polarimetry, discuss the issues and limitations of PRD usage, and explore potential approaches to more efficiently use PRD for quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting based on statistical retrieval with physical constraints where prior information is used and observation error is included. This approach aligns the observation-based retrievals favored by the radar meteorology community with the model-based analysis of the NWP community. We also examine the challenges and opportunities of polarimetric phased array radar research and development for future weather observation.     

Numerical Heliospheric Simulations as Assisting Tool for Interpretation of Observations by STEREO Heliospheric Imagers

The interpretation of multi-spacecraft heliospheric observations and three-dimensional reconstruction of structured and evolving solar wind is challenging. This is especially true for the interpretation of white-light structures observed by the Heliospheric Imagers (HI) onboard STEREO spacecraft since their appearance depends on three-dimensional geometric factors. Numerical simulations can provide global context and suggest what may and may not be observed. We use the heliospheric code ENLIL to simulate various scenarios of well-defined corotating solar wind streams and ejected transient density structures, and we generate from the solutions synthetic white-light images at various locations. We illustrate that corotating interaction regions (CIRs) show up differently in HI-2A and HI-2B and that they may appear as transient structures in HI-2A but not in HI-2B. This asymmetry is caused by differing Thomson scattering responses. Further, we illustrate that a given interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) may exhibit drastically different white-light brightness depending on the observing position and that some ICMEs can eventually reach Earth without being detected by the imagers. Finally, we demonstrate application of the modeling system through simulation of the 24?–?25 January 2007, 31 December 2007 and 26 April 2008 CMEs.     

The effects of gas on morphological transformation in mergers: implications for bulge and disc demographics

Transformation of discs into spheroids via mergers is a well-accepted element of galaxy formation models. However, recent simulations have shown that the bulge formation is suppressed in increasingly gas-rich mergers. We investigate the global implications of these results in a cosmological framework, using independent approaches: empirical halo-occupation models (where galaxies are populated in haloes according to observations) and semi-analytic models. In both, ignoring the effects of gas in mergers leads to the overproduction of spheroids: low- and intermediate-mass galaxies are predicted to be bulge-dominated (   B / T ∼ 0.5  at  <10¹⁰ M_⊙  , with almost no 'bulgeless' systems), even if they have avoided major mergers. Including the different physical behaviour of gas in mergers immediately leads to a dramatic change: bulge formation is suppressed in low-mass galaxies, observed to be gas-rich (giving   B / T ∼ 0.1  at  <10¹⁰ M_⊙  , with a number of bulgeless galaxies in good agreement with observations). Simulations and analytic models which neglect the similarity-breaking behaviour of gas have difficulty reproducing the strong observed morphology–mass relation. However, the observed dependence of gas fractions on mass, combined with suppression of bulge formation in gas-rich mergers, naturally leads to the observed trends. Discrepancies between observations and models that ignore the role of gas increase with redshift; in models that treat gas properly, galaxies are predicted to be less bulge-dominated at high redshifts, in agreement with the observations. We discuss implications for the global bulge mass density and future observational tests.