IMPACT OF VERTICAL RESOLUTION,MODEL TOP AND DATA ASSIMILATION ON WEATHER FORECASTING——A CASE STUDY

The impacts of stratospheric initial conditions and vertical resolution on the stratosphere by raising the model top, refining the vertical resolution, and the assimilation of operationally available observations, including conventional and satellite observations, on continental U.S. winter short-range weather forecasting, were investigated in this study. The initial and predicted wind and temperature profiles were analyzed against conventional observations. Generally, the initial wind and temperature bias profiles were better adjusted when a higher model top and refined vertical resolution were used. Negative impacts were also observed in both the initial wind and temperature profiles, over the lower troposphere. Different from the results by only raising the model top, the assimilation of operationally available observations led to significant improvements in both the troposphere and stratosphere initial conditions when a higher top was used. Predictions made with the adjusted stratospheric initial conditions and refined vertical resolutions showed generally better forecasting skill. The major improvements caused by raising the model top with refined vertical resolution, as well as those caused by data assimilation, were in both cases located in the tropopause and lower stratosphere. Negative impacts were also observed, in the predicted near surface wind and lower-tropospheric temperature. These negative impacts were related to the uncertainties caused by more stratospheric information, as well as to some physical processes. A case study shows that when we raise the model top, put more vertical layers in stratosphere and apply data assimilation, the precipitation scores can be slightly improved. However, more analysis are needed due to uncertainties brought by data assimilation.     

基于渤海石油平台海面风观测的FNL资料评估

对2018年全年渤海石油平台海上观测的15个站点的风速风向进行了分析,并利用4个代表站1、4、7和10月的资料对分辨率为0.25°×0.25°NCEP/NCAR的FNL资料分析风场的误差进行了对比评估。结果表明:(1)观测风速风向存在较大区域性差异;(2)FNL风场资料在渤海地区近海风速整体偏大;(3)夏季当风速小于15 m/s时,FNL的风速可信度最高;冬季当风速大于15 m/s时,FNL的风向可信度最高;(4)秋季风向误差最高,春季次之。当风速小于5 m/s时,风向误差较大。