苏州市一次重霾污染天气过程的数值模拟

本文对苏州地区2015年12月13—15日发生的一次典型的重霾污染天气过程进行了数值模拟,分析了颗粒物及其组分的时空变化特征及其气象影响因子,以期为该区域空气污染治理和预防提供科学依据。结果表明:(1)利用WRF-Chem模式对此次重霾污染天气过程的污染气体成分进行数值模拟后发现,小时平均的PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、CO、SO_2、NO_2模拟值与实测值的相关系数较高,达到0.68以上,通过了P0.01的显著性检验,且日变化过程对应也较好。(2)通过分析此次污染过程的天气背景,发现污染形成期高空环流比较平直,中层为均匀的弱高压控制,地面受弱高压脊控制,这种形势容易导致颗粒物的堆积。后期地面等压线密集时,风速大,有利于污染物的输送与扩散。(3)通过分析此次污染过程期间气象要素的变化发现,有逆温、风速小、相对湿度大等不利的气象条件是导致此次污染过程发生的重要原因之一。(4)HYSPLIT轨迹分析显示,此次重霾过程主要受北方大范围灰霾颗粒物南下影响,北方污染气团逐步南推,14至15日本地大气扩散条件差、污染物累积,最终导致本地污染加重,从而发生重霾事件。(5)火点图的分布进一步验证了此次重霾污染过程是由外来污染气团输入所导致。     

INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF HEAT CONTENT, AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SUMMER MONSOON INTENSITY, IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

This study analyzes the Ishii 700 m heat content (HC) in the South China Sea (SCS). During the 1978–2012 period, the HC in the SCS changed dramatically on interannual timescales. Three main findings emerged from the analysis. 1) The first spatial pattern of the empirical orthogonal function (EOF1) was consistently distributed over most of the SCS, whereas that of the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF2) showed a dipole signal. 2) The HC anomalies in the SCS were closely related to the SCS summer monsoon intensity. When the HC over most of the SCS increased (decreased) in previous winter, the SCS summer monsoon was strengthened (weakened). Therefore, the HC behavior in the SCS during previous winter can well predict the intensity of the SCS summer monsoon. 3) HC anomalies in the SCS largely influence the monsoon and Walker circulations, in turn affecting the western Pacific subtropical high and finally the SCS summer monsoon.