梅雨锋云系的结构特征及其成因分析

利用逐时卫星遥感观测资料和地面测站的降水资料，分析了江淮流域2003年6月22～26日暴雨过程中梅雨锋云系的演变、结构特征和形成原因。结果表明，梅雨锋云系为一条TBB的低值带，稳定少动，其上分布着中尺度对流系统（MCS），而中尺度对流系统是由不同尺度、不同强度．的对流单体（包括中β和中γ尺度对流单体）组成的，从而使得梅雨锋云系产生不均匀的降水分布（包括时间上和空间上）。在该暴雨过程中，梅雨锋云系充分体现了中尺度对流系统中所包括的3类组织结构形式。梅雨锋云系与中高纬度云系或热带辐合带云系之间的相互作用与暴雨过程关系密切，梅雨锋云系的维持和发展与强大的黄淮气旋云系直接相关，它是江淮流域上空冷暖气流交汇的结果。     

干侵入的研究及其应用进展

全面综述了国外近年来干侵入(dry intrusion)研究的进展和有关结果，概括总结了干侵入的基本理论、结构特征、在天气和次天气系统发展中的作用及其数值模拟结果；干侵入研究中有待于继续进行和深入的研究方向。明确了干侵入是源于对流层高层下沉至低层的高位涡低湿空气，它在气旋的爆发性发展、暴雨的增幅、位势不稳定的增强、中气旋的产生发展等方面起着重要的促进作用，同时，它能够影响冷锋的演变及其降水特征。因此，对干侵入及其机制的进一步研究具有较大的理论价值和实际天气预报意义。     

完全Q矢量的引入及其诊断分析

参照准地转Q矢量推导，考虑天气系统发展的主要热力强迫因子－非绝热加热作用，引出考虑非绝热效应的完全Q矢量的概念，并应用于实例分析。结果表明，完全Q矢量能较清楚地揭示暴雨天气系统的演变；考虑了湿过程的完全Q矢量在暴雨的诊断过程中显示了更大的优越性；定性而言，完全Q矢量散度的辐合中心或辐合线、散度场和锋生函数场有助于确定暴雨的落区，暴雨区正好落在低层完全Q矢量散度场辐合中心和锋生函数场正值中心之间；定量而言，低层完全Q矢量散度场辐合中心和锋生函数场正值中心大小对暴雨强度有显著的指示作用。因而在暴雨的诊断和预报过程中完全Q矢量散度和锋生函数是两个重要的参数。     

对华北一次特大台风暴雨过程的位涡诊断分析

通过对９６０８号台风低压及其外围暴雨位和等熵面上物理量场的分析,揭示了台风低压北上诱发暴雨过程的位涡场的结构及冷空气对暴雨增幅的作用,给出此次暴雨增幅过程的图像。分析表明：对流层低层中高纬度冷空气（高位涡）扩散南下在台风低压环流区附近的“侵入”作用是此次特大暴雨过程的最重要的原因之一;等熵面位涡的分析进一步说明了中高纬地区冷空气的活动状况;对流层高层或平流层低层位涡的下传有利于位势不稳定能量的释放     

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON INTENSITY CHANGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

55-year (1949 - 2003) data sets are used to study the statistical characteristics in intensity change of the tropical cyclones (TC) over the western North Pacific. According to the mathematical meaning of average value and standard deviation, the abruptly intensifying, gradually intensifying, stable intensity, gradually weakening and abruptly weakening of TC intensity are defined and the statistical characteristics, such as inter-decadal variation, inter-annual variation, inter-monthly variation, and regional distribution, etc. are analyzed. Main results are as follows: (1) From 1949 to 2003, there were 1886 TCs, averaging at 34.29 TCs per year. After 1995, the number of TCs dropped dramatically with less than 30 per year. 3.56% of the total were abruptly intensifying samples, and 3.31% were weakening samples. (2) For the annual mean, all but the stable group tend to decrease with the shift of decades as far as the overall change of the 6-h isallobaric process is concerned. (3) The abruptly intensifying TC seldom occurs over mid- and high-latitude area (north of 30°N) and low-latitude area and sometimes occurs around the islands and continent. Basically there is no gradually intensifying of TC over mid- and high- latitude area (north of 30°N and west of 125°E), in offshore Chinese waters. The gradually weakening and abruptly weakening TCs usually occur offshore China, west of 125 °E, but seldom over low-latitude area (0 - 5°N).     

EFFECT OF DRY COLD AIR ACTIVITY ON THE OFFSHORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF SUPER TYPHOON SAOMAI (2006): A NUMERICAL SIMULATION RESEARCH

Employing the mesoscale WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) model, Super Typhoon Saomai (2006) is simulated. The variation of track and intensity and its offshore rapid intensification process are well demonstrated by the model, and the temperature and humidity patterns associated with the dry cold air activity and their impact on and mechanism of the offshore rapid intensification of Saomai are mainly studied in this paper. The results indicate that high-resolution water vapor imagery can visually reveal the development, evolution, interaction as well as the mutual complementation of the dry cold air activity accompanied with the development of Saomai. The offshore rapid intensification phenomenon of Saomai is closely related to the dry cold air which originates from the upper- and mid- troposphere. Besides, the dry cold air from the upper troposphere is stronger than that from the mid-troposphere. Saomai intensifies as the dry cold air from the northwest moves toward its circulation but weakens when the dry cold air from the southwest is drawn into the storm. Dry cold airflows and their cold advection effect caused by the downward motion across the isentropic surface are favorable to the development of Saomai. The dry cold air always moves along an isentropic surface from the upper troposphere to the mid-troposphere around the typhoon circulation and contributes to Saomai’s abrupt intensity change.     

超强台风 “桑美” (2006) 近海急剧增强过程数值模拟试验

应用PSU/NCAR非静力平衡中尺度模式MM5 (V3.5) 设计试验方案, 对超强台风 “桑美” (2006) 在我国近海的急剧增强和减弱过程进行数值模拟研究, 模式较好地再现了台风的路径和强度变化; 通过地形敏感性试验, 着重研究了地形对近海台风强度变化的影响。结果表明: (1) “桑美” 强度变化与南亚高压、 副热带高压的强度变化呈反相变化关系, 当南亚高压和副热带高压减弱时, 台风急剧增强; 台风中心附近对流层高层辐散的增强导致 “桑美” 急剧增强, 对流层中低层辐散的增强以及中层辐合的增大与 “桑美” 的减弱密切相关; 来自海洋的暖湿气流是 “桑美” 发展的关键条件; 低层气旋性涡旋并入台风环流是 “桑美” 近海急剧增强的重要原因。 (2) 凝结加热过程对 “桑美” 的近海维持和发展增强非常重要, 尤其是对流层中上层凝结潜热的突然增强有利于台风在近海的急剧增强。 (3) 小范围地形对 “桑美” 在近海的强度和路径有一定影响, 但作用相对较小, 而且主要表现在台风登陆前后; 大范围地形导致水平风场的非对称分布和台风中心附近垂直运动的异常, 最终影响到台风的强度变化。     

超强台风“桑美”(2006)能量发展的物理因子

应用非线性动力系统的研究方法, 基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料, 以超强台风 “桑美” (2006) 在我国近海的突然增强和突然减弱过程为例, 从动能角度分析热带气旋能量发展的条件, 将分析结果转化为可用于分析预测热带气旋强度变化的实用指标, 如非热成风涡度、 热成风偏差及其垂直变化。结果表明: 热带气旋中心附近存在非热成风涡度负值中心, 有利于近海热带气旋突然增强; 非热成风涡度的变化与热带气旋中心气压变化有较好的一致性。当扰动自下向上传播时, 在热带气旋增强阶段热成风偏差为正值, 而在减弱阶段为负值; 当外围波扰向内核传播时, 在热带气旋增强阶段热成风偏差垂直变化为负值, 而在减弱阶段为正值, 热成风偏差及其垂直变化的这种变化在对流层中低层更明显。当扰动自下向上、 自外围向内核传播时, 在热带气旋增强阶段非热成风涡度为负值、 热成风偏差为正值、 热成风偏差垂直变化为负值; 减弱阶段则相反。     

气象洪级的划分方案及应用

气象洪级的划分方案与以往的洪涝等级划分不同，既要考虑流域洪涝的水文参量，又要考虑流域的面雨量等气象参量，因此气象洪级的等级大小既反映了流域中主要江河的洪涝程度，又反映了流域中大范围的强降水所引发的流域内小河流的洪涝和内涝程度。