基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

Holocene permafrost history and cryostratigraphy in the High‐Arctic Adventdalen Valley,central Svalbard

This paper presents the history and cryostratigraphy of the upper permafrost in the High‐Arctic Adventdalen Valley, central Svalbard. Nineteen frozen sediment cores, up to 10.7 m long, obtained at five periglacial landforms, were analysed for cryostructures, ice, carbon and solute contents, and grain‐size distribution, and were ¹⁴C‐ and OSL‐dated. Spatial variability in ice and carbon contents is closely related to the sedimentary history and mode of permafrost aggradation. In the valley bottom, saline epigenetic permafrost with pore ice down to depths of 10.7 m depth formed in deltaic sediments since the mid‐Holocene; cryopegs were encountered below 6 m. In the top 1 to 5 m, syngenetic and quasi‐syngenetic permafrost with microlenticular, lenticular, suspended and organic‐matrix cryostructures developed due to loess and alluvial sedimentation since the colder late Holocene, which resulted in the burial of organic material. At the transition between deltaic sediments and loess, massive ice bodies occurred. A pingo developed where the deltaic sediments reached the surface. On hillslopes, suspended cryostructure on solifluction sheets indicates quasi‐syngenetic permafrost aggradation; lobes, in contrast, were ice‐poor. Suspended cryostructure in eluvial deposits reflects epigenetic or quasi‐syngenetic permafrost formation on a weathered bedrock plateau. Landform‐scale spatial variations in ground ice and carbon relate to variations in slope, sedimentation rate, moisture conditions and stratigraphy. Although the study reveals close links between Holocene landscape evolution and permafrost history, our results emphasize a large uncertainty in using terrain surface indicators to infer ground‐ice contents and upscale from core to landform scale in mountainous permafrost landscapes.     

FEASIBLE STUDY ON THE INTEGRATION SYSTEM FOR THE SPACE MONITORING OF MAJOR EARTHQUAKES AND VOLCANOES IN TERRESTRIAL LAND

With the rapid development of space technology, earth observation technology and sky observatory technolo-gy, they have played a more and more important part in monitoring and predicting of earthquakes and volcanoes in the terres-trial land. In recent years, the related agencies have done the experiments and researches on monitoring and predicting ofearthquakes and volcanoes in the forewarning period by means of many approaches, such as satellite thermal infrared re-mote sensing (TIRS), Global Positioning System (GPS), differential interferometric synthesis aperture radar (D-INSAR),astronomical time-latitude residual anomaly, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), etc. A quite large number of re-search foundation has been built in the fundamental theories and application methods. The experiments and researcheshave shown that these technology is efficient methods for high frequency crust movement. If the existed separate scientificforces and results are possibly assembled together to form a more complete integration monitoring system with the combina-tion of space, sky observation, ground, deep geology and macro anomaly, it will come into a new stage of monitoring andpredicting of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.     

星风吸积引起的钡星重元素超丰

首先指出目前星风吸积模型中理论上的不自洽，考虑到δｒ≠０，重新推导轨道参量变化方程，消去了理论上的不自洽．提出一个新模型：首次将星风吸积同内禀ＡＧＢ星核合成模型结合起来计算钡（Ｂａ）星的重元素超丰，并将计算结果与观测值进行了比较．各参量按标准情况取值时，计算结果不太理想．取Ｂｏｎｄｉｈｏｙｌｅ吸积率的０．５倍或取较大的星风速率时，对于较长轨道周期（Ｐ＞１０００天）的Ｂａ星，计算结果与观测值基本符合；而较短轨道周期（Ｐ＜６００天）的Ｂａ星，其重元素超丰机制可能是盘吸积     

瓮安生物群与宽川铺生物群中球形类化石研究

通过对获自瓮安生物群与宽川铺生物群中大量球形类化石的系统研究，建立了便于交流和深入讨论的球形类化石形态分类方案，对各种类型的球形类化石进行了属性探讨，并按形态属描述球形类化石4个新类型(相当于形态属)，8个新种类(相当于形态种)。研究表明球形类化石是一个多源的非正式生物类群，包括动物性和植物性球形类化石。具有丰富的研究内涵，对揭示早期生物的起源、演化、多样性及胚胎发育具有深远意义。     

Propagation of Alfvén waves in multi-layer solar atmosphere model

In this paper, we idealize the actual solar atmosphere as a multi-isothermal-layer system so as to obtain the energy transmittance of the linear Alfvén wave that propagates through such a system in presence of a uniform oblique magnetic filed. The results indicate that the two-layer model is essentially different to the three-layer one. In the two-layer model, the temperature jump acts as a high pass filter. In the three-layer model, resonant transfer will take place and the transmittance undergoes oscillation as the trigonometric function terms dominate its behavior. For actual solar atmosphere, the result reveals that the lower parts of solar atmosphere are more suitable for those Alfvén waves with period of seconds to transfer their energy.     

基于GIS的印度洋大眼金枪鱼延绳钓钓获率与水温关系的研究

采用GIS定性分析和数值分析的方法,研究了印度洋大眼金枪鱼延绳钓钓获率与水温的 关系。结果表明,大眼金枪鱼延绳钓高钓获率的出现与印度洋加权水温大面分布存在明显的相互 关系,大眼金枪鱼的渔获适温在14～17℃间。建议测量200m水深处的水温作为海上生产时的参 考。     

Results from several persistent train spectra intercompared

Some results following from two contemporary photographical programs (Slovakia and Japan) for persistent meteor train spectra are compared. It shows that even though both programs are not too different according to their lenses and films used, the spectral interval detected is very different. In this respect prism as a dispersion element is more favourable than the grating with blaze wavelength near 610 nm. However, some results previously assumed as typicai for presented persistent trains-e.g. the forbidden Herzberg O₂ emission, the NO₂ continuum and OH red emissions-seem to be substanciated especially due to higher and linear dispersion of those grating spectra.     

成都市冬季重污染日气象条件成因分析及预报

本文通过对成都10个重污染日进行天气学分析,将污染浓度与气象要素进行聚类、研究了重污染日形成原因及污染浓度与气象要素的关系。在此基础上,建立了SO_2、TSP日平均浓度分级预报方程。     

The comparison between allozyme and RAPD makers for the population genetic structure analysis of scallop Chlamys farreri

1INTRODUCTION Since the first use in human genetic research in1966,allozyme has become the most popular genetic marker for population genetics studies for almost all groups of animals and plants(Lewontin and Hubby,1966;Murphy et al.,1996).In the past seve…