Spatial Distribution Assessment and Source Apportionment of Land-Based Pollutant Yield from Qingdao,China

The spatial distribution of chemical oxygen demand(COD) and total nitrogen(TN) yield from Qingdao are studied by comparing pollutant yield amount, densities and spatial aggregation(Getis-Ord indexes) among the land-based pollutant source regions(PSRs) entering the three sub-seas(i.e. the Jiaozhou Bay(JZB), other coastal area in the Yellow Sea(OCAYS) and Laizhou Bay(LZB), respectively). Industrial composition of the loads are also studied by comparing pollutant yield among the sources of agriculture, rural domesticity, industry, urban domesticity and service, and calculation of Gini coefficient. Results show that spatial distribution of COD and TN yield from Qingdao are extremely unbalanced. The JZB, with less than 3% of the total coastal sea area of Qingdao, received 62% COD load and 65% TN yield from Qingdao, while the OCAYS, with more than 97% area, only received 23% COD and 20% TN, which consist with the much worsen water quality of JZB than that of OCAYS. On the other hand, the source apportionment of COD and TN loads in the PSRs entering JZB and the OCAYS was similar. The agricultural and domestic sources with high pollution intensity account for more than 80%, while the industrial and service sources with low pollution intensity account for less than 20%. While Gini coefficients, COD 0.81 and TN 0.84 which are much higher than the ‘imbalance' threshold of 0.4, show the uneven industrial structure of Qingdao. These results may be useful in the determination of land-based pollution total amount control at the PSR level.     

碳排放约束下的中国海洋经济效率时空差异及影响因素分析

以碳排放为非期望产出,运用非期望产出的SBM模型和Malmquist生产力指数对中国沿海11个省市区(不含港、澳、台)2006-2014年的海洋经济效率和全要素生产率进行测度,分析表明:(1)中国海洋经济平均效率在研究期内一直处于较低水平,整体上处于下降态势,但在研究期末有所回升;空间上,环渤海地区海洋经济效率值与长三角地区、泛珠三角地区效率值相比始终处于最低状态,但三大经济圈差距明显;(2)中国海洋经济全要素生产率在研究期内呈现下降趋势,年均下降0.8%,主要由于海洋经济技术效率的下降;空间上由研究期初的中部高、两端低演变为期末的全国均衡发展,但南方差异较大;(3)通过Tobit模型对影响因素做出回归分析,得出海洋经济发展水平、海洋产业结构水平和海洋科研人力资本水平是海洋经济效率的驱动因素。     

民间信仰载体的地域格局及其影响因素——以兰州市榆中县祠庙文化为例

以祠庙祭祀为主体且祠庙保存良好的民间信仰是甘肃陇中地区民间文化的重要组成。甘肃陇中地区的民间信仰具有很强的趋同性，本文以陇中地区的榆中县为例，以各村的祠庙为民间文化载体，通过核密度分析、Logistic回归等方法探讨榆中县民间文化载体的空间分布及其影响因素对于探讨陇中地区人地关系，保护和弘扬民俗文化有着重要意义。研究结果表明：（1）根据已有研究将榆中县民间信仰归纳为山神信仰、水神信仰、天地信仰、女性信仰、英雄崇拜和祖先崇拜，祖先崇拜的祠庙数量占有重要地位；（2）榆中县祠庙主要分布在西北黄河南岸、中部陇海铁路沿线及南部风景名胜集聚区，村级层面空间差异不显著、乡镇空间差异相对较大。通过核密度分析，不同类别民间信仰空间分布热点各有不同；（3）榆中县民间信仰空间分布受到区位条件限制，民间信仰的祠庙多位于海拔高度较低、人口密度较大、交通可达性较好的地区，坡度和到水源的距离成为山神信仰和水神信仰祠庙空间分布显著的影响因子，榆中县祠庙呈现出山神信仰类祠庙“依山”，水神信仰类祠庙“傍水”的空间特点。     

辽宁省海洋文化景观概述

文章介绍海洋文化景观的属性、定义和构成;将辽宁省海洋文化景观资源分为海洋物质文化景观和非物质文化景观2个大类,其中海洋物质文化景观包括海洋自然文化景观、海洋遗迹文化景观、海洋聚落文化景观、海洋宗教文化景观、海洋旅游文化景观和海洋设施景观,海洋非物质文化景观包括海洋历史文化景观、海洋民俗文化景观和海洋艺术文化景观,分别概述具体类别资源的代表内容;提出可采用模糊综合评价法评价辽宁省海洋文化景观,研究海洋文化景观对于海洋文化建设和提高海洋意识等具有重要意义。     

气候变化下基于物种与植物耦联机制的小白额雁(Anser erythropus)潜在生境及适宜性研究--以长江流域中下游为例

气候变化和人类活动通过改变物种生境而影响物种多样性。小白额雁是长江流域中下游的一种具有较高生态价值的食草型濒危候鸟,受气候变化和人类活动威胁。本文以小白额雁为代表性物种,定量分析了气候变化对长江流域中下游候鸟潜在生境及适宜性空间分布格局的影响。采用Maxent模型模拟了当前情景和全球环流模型(GCMs)气候场景下小白额雁潜在生境及其适宜性分布。研究结果表明,小白额雁分布特征与其栖息地周边植物分布呈显著相关关系;运用Maxent模型模拟小白额雁六种主要食源植物的分布特征,并将其结果作为环境变量,将显著改善小白额雁潜在生境及其适宜性模型的模拟性能;在两种典型浓度情景(RCP 2.6和RCP8.5)下,2070年小白额雁潜在生境适宜性面积将下降。为应对气候变化对小白额雁的影响,应采取更加合理的管理措施和保护政策,包括调整保护区的大小、形状和用途。     

广西土壤有机质空间变异特征及其影响因素研究

基于广西第二次土壤普查的270个土壤剖面资料,结合1∶50万数字化土壤类型图、土地利用类型图和气象监测数据等资料,利用地统计学和逐步回归分析等方法对广西表层土壤有机质空间变异特征及其影响因素进行了探究。结果表明：广西表层土壤有机质平均含量为3.11±2.19%,变异系数为70.72%,空间分布呈北高南低的趋势。广西表层土壤有机质空间分布受到自然和人为因素的共同影响,土壤类型、成土母质、海拔、土地利用、气候和坡度6个环境因子对全区土壤有机质含量变异的综合解释能力为47.9%。其中,土壤类型是最重要的影响因素,能独立解释其变异的36.0%,海拔和成土母质分别能独立解释28.5%和15.8%。气温对广西土壤有机质空间分布的影响比降水量更加显著,从而造成了广西土壤有机质整体呈南低北高的趋势。同时,土壤有机质对气温的敏感性在一定程度上受到降雨量的制约。此外,研究区农业耕作管理等因素对土壤有机质的影响也不容忽视。     

Prediction Test for the Two Extremely Strong Solar Storms in October 2003

In late October and early November 2003, a series of space weather hazard events erupted in solar-terrestrial space. Aiming at two intense storm (shock) events on 28 and 29 October, this paper presents a Two-Step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather–`observing’ and quantitative prediction – ‘palpating’, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step, ‘observing’, on the basis of observations of the source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shock waves is asymmetric and northward relative to the normal direction of their solar sources due to the large-scale configuration of the coronal magnetic fields, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of extremely high temperature and strong magnetic field, and background solar wind velocity as high as 600 and 1000 km s⁻¹, are also helpful to their rapid propagation. According to the synoptic analysis, the shock travel times can be estimated as 21 and 20 h, which are close to the observational results of 19.97 and 19.63 h, respectively. In the second step, ‘palpating’, we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results here show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8 and 6.7%, which are consistent with the estimated results of the first step; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 4.1 and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the Two-Step method is advantageous in predicting such strong shock event. It can predict not only shock arrival time, but also the magnitude of magnetic disturbance. The results of the present paper tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction efficiency.     

浅谈项目投资失败的原因及对策

地勘单位在向企业化经营转变的过程中 ,投资兴办了许多企业 ,但不少项目以失败告终。文章分析探讨了失败的原因 ,并提出相应的对策     

重庆地面最高气温与最大风速年极值的渐近分布

利用重庆1951-1990年间地面最高气温和1956-1990年间地面最大风速年极值的记录,采用韦伯分布和耿贝尔分布分别对其渐近分布进行拟合.通过统计推断,找出重庆地面最高气温和地面最大风速年极值遵循的最佳渐近分布--韦伯分布.     

Isotopic evidence for holocene climatic changes in Bosten Lake, Southern Xinjiang, China

Based on the δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O fluctuation of lacustrine carbonate, CaCO₃ content and sporo-pollen data, a palaeoclimatic history of Bosten Lake during the Holocene has been outlined, several stages of climatic changes are divided, and the following result es are obtained: (1) Palaeoclimatic changes revealed by carbonate isotope around Bosten Lake are basically identical with that revealed by other geological records in Xinjiang. Environmental changes presented apparent Westlies Style model: during cold period, relative humidity increased, δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C and CaCO₃ appeared low; but in warm periods, the dry regime aggravated. (2) The temperature reflected by δ¹⁸O exist evident features being increase in the late period during the Holocene. Together with the δ¹³C, pollen and CaCO₃ analyses, several cold and warm phases which are of broad regional significance can be identified. The warm peaks occurred at about 11.0 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P., 7.5 ka B.P., 5.0 ka B.P., 3.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P.; the cold peaks at 11.5 ka B.P., 10.5 ka B.P., 8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P., 3.3 ka B.P., 2.2 ka B.P. and 1.5 ka B.P.. (3) Several climatic events with the nature of “abrupt climatic changes” are revealed in the periods of 11.0 ka B.P. −10.5 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P. −8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P. −5.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P. −1.5 ka B.P.. (4) The results show that carbonate isotopic record of lacustrine sediment in arid area is very sensitive to climatic changes, and may be play a very important role in understanding the features and mechanism of palaeoclimatic changes.