东北夏季气温变异的区域差异及其与大气环流和海表温度的关系

利用1951～2000年中国东北地区23个台站资料，对东北夏季气温的时空分布进行了研究，发现其变化除具有整体的一致性外，东北南部和北部的夏季气温在年际和年代际时间尺度都表现出很大不同，其中北部区域的夏季气温在1987～1988年间发生了一次显著的气候突变. 另外，剔除夏季气温全区一致变化的年份后，南北两区夏季气温与大气环流和海表温度的关系表明：突变前，影响北部和南部冷/热夏季的大气环流形势存在显著的不同，关键海域亦有很大差异：影响南部的为中纬度西太平洋和印度洋部分海域，影响北部的主要为ENSO事件；突变后，两区的夏季气温及相应大气环流和关键海区都趋于一致. 在整个分析时段内，北部夏季气温与东亚夏季风存在显著负相关，而南部的关系则不明显.     

Robustness of Precipitation Projections in China:Comparison between CMIP5 and CMIP3 Models

Three sources of uncertainty in model projections of precipitation change in China for the 21st century were separated and quantified: internal variability,inter-model variability,and scenario uncertainty.Simulations from models involved in the third phase and the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP3 and CMIP5) were compared to identify improvements in the robustness of projections from the latest generation of models.No significant differences were found between CMIP3 and CMIP5 in terms of future precipitation projections over China,with the two datasets both showing future increases.The uncertainty can be attributed firstly to internal variability,and then to both inter-model and internal variability.Quantification analysis revealed that the uncertainty in CMIP5 models has increased by about 10%–60% with respect to CMIP3,despite significant improvements in the latest generation of models.The increase is mainly due to the increase of internal variability in the initial decades,and then mainly due to the increase of inter-model variability thereafter,especially by the end of this century.The change in scenario uncertainty shows no major role,but makes a negative contribution to begin with,and then an increase later.     

边缘耀斑中HeI 10830的加宽计算

讨论了 ＨｅＩ １０８３０Ａ的 Ｄｏｐｐｌｅｒ和 Ｓｔａｒｋ加宽机制以及各种加宽参数的计算，并 得到以下一些结论：辐射阻尼对 ＨｅＩ １０８３０ Ａ的加宽作用与 Ｄｏｐｐｌｅｒ效应相比可以忽略； 在公认的耀斑电子密度（Ｎｅ＝３．２ ×１０１３ｃｍ－３）的情况下，所有阻尼项均不可能产生可以 觉察的加宽；直到 Ｎｅ＝１０１５ｃｍ－３，各种阻尼对线心半宽的增加都不起作用，其值最多 在１０－３的量级，因此；线心都可以看作是Ｄｏｐｐｌｅｒ加宽；当 Ｎｅ＞１０１４ ｃｍ－３时，Ｓｔａｒｋ 加宽，特别是电子碰撞的 Ｓｔａｒｋ加宽将在 ＨｅＩ １０８３０ Ａ的加宽中起主要作用；如要 Ｓｔａｒｋ 加宽谱线的线翼比纯Ｄｏｐｐｌｅｒ加宽大１－２倍，则阻尼加宽半宽与。可以相比拟；如果 用 Ｓｔａｒｋ加宽来解释 １９８９年边缘耀斑的观测轮廓，则电子密度将达１０～（１７）ｃｍ－３，与氦 原子的碰撞阻尼（γ３）造成的加宽对Ｉ１２和Ｉ３两分量明显不同，它们对Ｉ１２的影响比对Ｉ３ 的影响大近一个量级，我们的观测显示Ｉ１２和Ｉ３线翼的延伸基本一样，因而我们的观测 轮廓不可能是γ３造成的     

High-Resolution Hindcast of Record-Breaking Rainfall in Beijing and Impact of Topography

In this paper,a hindcast study of the record-breaking rainfall event occurring in Beijing on 21July 2012,is conducted by using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model forced by National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)Global Forecasting System(GFS)outputs,paired with an investigation of the impact of topography in this region.The results indicate that WRF can reasonably predict the salient features of orographic precipitation;the 24-h rainfall amount and spatial distribution compare reasonably well with the observations.The hindcast simulation also indicates that rainfall events can be predicted approximately 36 h ahead.When the topography is removed,the spatial distribution of rainfall changes remarkably,suggesting the importance of the topography in determining rainfall structure.These results also indicate that prediction of such city-scale heavy rainfall events would benefit from a high-resolution prediction system.     

Possible Impact of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation on Extreme Hot Events in China

This paper reveals that the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) is closely related to the extreme hot event (EHE) variability in China during the period of 1979 2009, with a positive-phase (negative-phase) SNAO corresponding to less (more) EHEs in northern China. The summer circulation anomalies associated with the SNAO give further confirmation of the above relationship. In a positive-phase (negative-phase) SNAO year, there is an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over central East Asia, which can increase (decrease) the total cloud cover over this region. Such changes of the total cloud cover can then decrease (increase) the solar radiation reaching the surface, which is consequently unfavorable (favorable) to the formation of EHEs over northern China.     

春季南极涛动对北美夏季风的影响

This study examined the relationship between the boreal spring(April?May) Antarctic Oscillation(AAO) and the North American summer monsoon(NASM)(July?September) for the period of 1979?2008.The results show that these two systems are closely related.When the spring AAO was stronger than normal,the NASM tended to be weaker,and there was less rainfall over the monsoon region.The opposite NASM situation corresponded to a weaker spring AAO.Further analysis explored the possible mechanism for the delayed impact of the boreal spring AAO on the NASM.It was found that the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST) plays an important role in the connection between the two phenomena.The variability of the boreal spring AAO can produce anomalous SSTs over the tropical Atlantic.These SST anomalies can persist from spring to summer and can influence the Bermuda High,affecting water vapor transportation to the monsoon region.Through these processes,the boreal spring AAO exerts a significantly delayed impact on the amount of NASM precipitation.Thus,information about the boreal spring AAO is valuable for the prediction of the NASM.     

Evaluation of CORDEX regional climate models in simulating temperature and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau

区域气候模式对研究地形复杂的青藏高原地区气候具有高分辨率的优势。以前的相关研究主要基于单个区域模式,我们评估了CORDEX多区域气候模式对青藏高原气候的模拟能力。结果显示:(1)5个区域气候模式一致模拟出了相似的气温、降水空间模态,但产生了冷偏差和湿偏差。所有区域气候模式未能再现观测的气温、降水趋势空间模态,并且平均高估了气温趋势、低估了降水趋势。综合考虑模拟的气温、降水趋势,多模式集合的结果最优。就单个模式而言,Reg CM4所得趋势最为合理。(2)各区域气候模式结果之间的差异十分显著,表明青藏高原气候模拟具有很大的模式依赖性。这一结果建议当利用单个区域气候模式开展青藏高原气候变化研究时需要谨慎。(3)多区域模式集合预估显示,相对1986–2005年,到2016–2035年气温(降水)将增加1.38±0.09°C(0.8%±4.0%)(RCP4.5)和1.77±0.28°C(7.3%±2.5%)(RCP8.5)。这些结果从多模式角度提高了我们对运用区域气候模式研究青藏高原气候的认识。     

Interdecadal variability of the large-scale extreme hot event frequency over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin and its related atmospheric patterns

本文研究了长江中下游夏季大范围极端高温事件的年代际变化及其与大气环流的联系。结果表明,从1960-2013年长江中下游极端高温事件呈现出多-少-多的年代际变化特征,两次显著的年代际突变分别发生在20世纪70年代初和21世纪初。欧亚大陆高层的遥相关模态与极端高温事件在年代际尺度上存在密切联系。该遥相关模态可以通过影响东亚地区上空高层西风急流的强弱,进一步影响长江中下游地区局地的辐合辐散、垂直运动和云量的变化,从而对长江中下游地区极端高温事件产生影响。利用近百年的气温和大气环流资料也表明在更长时间尺度上该欧亚大陆高层的遥相关模态与极端高温事件的关系也是显著的。     

The Wenchuan Earthquake (May 12, 2008), Sichuan Province,China, and resulting geohazards

On Monday, May 12, 2008, a devastating mega-earthquake of magnitude 8.0 struck the Wenchuan area, northwestern Sichuan Province, China. The focal mechanism of the earthquake was successive massive rock fracturing 15 km in depth at Yingxiu. Seismic analysis confirms that the major shock occurred on the Beichuan–Yingxiu Fault and that aftershocks rapidly extended in a straight northeast–southeast direction along the Longmenshan Fault zone. Fatalities approaching a total of 15,000 occurred, with a significant number resulting from four types of seismically triggered geohazards—rock avalanches and landslides, landslide-dammed lakes (“earthquake lakes”), and debris flows. China Geological Survey has identified 4,970 potentially risky sites, 1,701 landslides, 1,844 rock avalanches, 515 debris flows, and 1,093 unstable slopes. Rock avalanches and landslides caused many fatalities directly and disrupted the transportation system, extensively disrupting rescue efforts and thereby causing additional fatalities. Landslide-dammed lakes not only flooded human habitats in upstream areas but also posed threats to potentially inundated downstream areas with large populations. Debris flows become the most remarkable geohazards featured by increasing number, high frequency, and low triggering rainfall. Earthquake-triggered geohazards sequentially induced and transformed to additional hazards. For example, debris flows occurred on rock avalanches and landslides, followed by landslide-dammed lakes, and then by additional debris flows and breakouts of the landslide-dammed lakes and downstream flooding. Earthquake-induced geohazards occurred mainly along the fault zone and decreased sharply with distance from the fault. It can be anticipated that post-earthquake geohazards, particularly for debris flows, will continue for 5–10 years and even for as long as 20 years. An integrated strategy of continuing emergency response and economic reconstruction is required. The lesson from Wenchuan Earthquake is that the resulted geohazards may appear in large number in active fault regions. A plan for geohazard prevention in the earthquake-active mountainous areas is needed in advance.     

秦祁接合带造山缝合带磁组构特征及其构造意义

结合构造及磁化率各向异性研究详细解剖了秦祁接合带唐藏—关子镇—武山和新阳—元龙造山缝合带的应变及岩组特征.41个采点168个构造岩样品的平均磁化率全部较低,磁化率椭球形态分析表明其以平面和压扁应变为主,磁化率各向异性度普遍较高,属强变形岩石组构类型,结合野外观察认为其与变形强度明显正相关.此外,磁化率各向异性参数T、P′可能受岩石类型一定程度的影响.磁化率椭球主轴方位与变形密切相关,提供了丰富的岩组信息.两构造带具有类似的岩组特征,磁面理大致分为呈共轭形态的两组,暗示高应变剪切带在平面上可能以网格状形态出露;高倾伏角磁面理与占优势的低倾伏角、近水平磁线理表明了构造带明显的走滑特征,部分高角度磁线理可能与构造带的挤压和（或）转换挤压相关;磁组方法不能简单用于判别复杂强变形带的运动指向,糜棱面理的复杂变化及K_min与构造带夹角过高使其判别结果意义不明,而野外及显微构造观察都表明了构造带的右行走滑特征.上述结果表明,沿缝合带大规模的右行转换挤压形成了秦祁接合带反“S”型的平面构造形态,暗示在南北板块拼合过程中,西秦岭诸中、小块体一定程度的向西挤逸.