Increase in Dissolved Silica of Rivers Due to a Volcanic Eruption in an Estuarine Bay (Sorsogon Bay,Philippines)

Mount Bulusan, the Philippines’ fourth most active volcano, erupted in February 21, 2011, sending volcanic ash and pyroclastic materials to its surrounding rivers. The waters drained into the estuary of harmful algal blooms plagued Sorsogon Bay. We aim to determine the impact of the 2011 volcanic eruption and the preceding volcanic ash emissions to the dissolved silica concentration of rivers draining the flanks of Mt. Bulusan and its possible implications to the phytoplankton assemblage of the bay. Six river water sampling periods from August 2010 to October 2012 overlapped with Mt. Bulusan’s active phase of volcanism. Our data shows that mean river silica from pre-eruption levels of ~?500 μM increased by more than 200% during and post-eruption. Highest Si concentration of 2270 μM was measured from Cadacan River in August 2011. Here, we argue that the sustained general increase of dissolved silica is due to the silica-containing materials from Mt. Bulusan’s eruption and that their concentration in river waters is also a function of watershed lithology and precipitation. Increase in dissolved silica and other nutrients caused a shift to diatom domination and, possibly, termination of Pyrodinium bahamense var. compressum blooms. Silica load increase in embayments is a natural process that controls the dominance of algae. Our study also highlights the importance of Philippine rivers to the global ocean silica budget as a function of high precipitation, tectonics in general, and volcanism in particular.     

POLARIX: a pathfinder mission of X-ray polarimetry

Since the birth of X-ray astronomy, spectral, spatial and timing observation improved dramatically, procuring a wealth of information on the majority of the classes of the celestial sources. Polarimetry, instead, remained basically unprobed. X-ray polarimetry promises to provide additional information procuring two new observable quantities, the degree and the angle of polarization. Polarization from celestial X-ray sources may derive from emission mechanisms themselves such as cyclotron, synchrotron and non-thermal bremsstrahlung, from scattering in aspheric accreting plasmas, such as disks, blobs and columns and from the presence of extreme magnetic field by means of vacuum polarization and birefringence. Matter in strong gravity fields and Quantum Gravity effects can be studied by X-ray polarimetry, too. POLARIX is a mission dedicated to X-ray polarimetry. It exploits the polarimetric response of a Gas Pixel Detector, combined with position sensitivity, that, at the focus of a telescope, results in a huge increase of sensitivity. The heart of the detector is an Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) chip with 105,600 pixels each one containing a full complete electronic chain to image the track produced by the photoelectron. Three Gas Pixel Detectors are coupled with three X-ray optics which are the heritage of JET-X mission. A filter wheel hosting calibration sources unpolarized and polarized is dedicated to each detector for periodic on-ground and in-flight calibration. POLARIX will measure time resolved X-ray polarization with an angular resolution of about 20 arcsec in a field of view of 15 × 15 arcmin and with an energy resolution of 20% at 6 keV. The Minimum Detectable Polarization is 12% for a source having a flux of 1 mCrab and 10⁵ s of observing time. The satellite will be placed in an equatorial orbit of 505 km of altitude by a Vega launcher. The telemetry down-link station will be Malindi. The pointing of POLARIX satellite will be gyroless and it will perform a double pointing during the earth occultation of one source, so maximizing the scientific return. POLARIX data are for 75% open to the community while 25% + SVP (Science Verification Phase, 1 month of operation) is dedicated to a core program activity open to the contribution of associated scientists. The planned duration of the mission is one year plus three months of commissioning and SVP, suitable to perform most of the basic science within the reach of this instrument. A nice to have idea is to use the same existing mandrels to build two additional telescopes of iridium with carbon coating plus two more detectors. The effective area in this case would be almost doubled.     

Planning Geotechnical Investigation Using ANFIS

Engineering experience may be written in mathematical form by using adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). In this article we propose a method to use engineering experience and build a model, which can be used as a systematic decision support tool for engineers dealing with new problems. Planning geotechnical investigations is based on experience, which are used to obtain optimal number of investigation points, field and laboratory tests. To achieve this objective we define minimum number of investigation points and several input parameters which could increase or decrease the number of investigation points. The expert’s evaluations were put in a table, from which we generate the basis of the system. The paper presents a concept for planning geotechnical investigation for buildings using ANFIS and practical examples show its usefulness.     

MVL spatiotemporal analysis for model intercomparison in EPS: application to the DEMETER multi-model ensemble

In a recent paper, Gutiérrez et al. (Nonlinear Process Geophys 15(1):109–114, 2008) introduced a new characterization of spatiotemporal error growth—the so called mean–variance logarithmic (MVL) diagram—and applied it to study ensemble prediction systems (EPS); in particular, they analyzed single-model ensembles obtained by perturbing the initial conditions. In the present work, the MVL diagram is applied to multi-model ensembles analyzing also the effect of model formulation differences. To this aim, the MVL diagram is systematically applied to the multi-model ensemble produced in the EU-funded DEMETER project. It is shown that the shared building blocks (atmospheric and ocean components) impose similar dynamics among different models and, thus, contribute to poorly sampling the model formulation uncertainty. This dynamical similarity should be taken into account, at least as a pre-screening process, before applying any objective weighting method.     

Impact of climate variability on ichthyoplankton communities: An example of a small temperate estuary

Recent variations in the precipitation regime across southern Europe have led to changes in river fluxes and salinity gradients affecting biological communities in most rivers and estuaries. A sampling programme was developed in the Mondego estuary, Portugal, from January 2003 to December 2008 at five distinct sampling stations to evaluate spatial, seasonal and inter-annual distributions of fish larvae. Gobiidae was the most abundant family representing 80% of total catch and Pomatoschistus spp. was the most important taxon. The fish larval community presented a clear seasonality with higher abundances and diversities during spring and summer seasons. Multivariate analysis reinforced differences among seasons but not between years or sampling stations. The taxa Atherina presbyter, Solea solea, Syngnathus abaster, Crystallogobius linearis and Platichthys flesus were more abundant during spring/summer period while Ammodytes tobianus, Callionymus sp., Echiichthys vipera and Liza ramada were more abundant in autumn/winter. Temperature, chlorophyll a and river flow were the main variation drivers observed although extreme drought events (year 2005) seemed not to affect ichthyoplankton community structure. Main changes were related to a spatial displacement of salinity gradient along the estuarine system which produced changes in marine species distribution.     

Observational Investigation of the Statistical Properties of Surface-Layer Turbulence in a Suburban Area of São Paulo,Brazil: Objective Analysis of Scaling-Parameter Accuracy and Uncertainties

Boundary-Layer Meteorology - Statistical properties of turbulence, specifically variances of velocity components, temperature, water vapor, and carbon dioxide densities, are observationally...     

Correction to: Observational Investigation of the Statistical Properties of Surface-Layer Turbulence in a Suburban Area of São Paulo,Brazil: Objective Analysis of Scaling-Parameter Accuracy and Uncertainties

Boundary-Layer Meteorology -     

Changes in zooplankton diversity and distribution pattern under varying precipitation regimes in a southern temperate estuary

The influence of climate variability on the diversity and distribution patterns of zooplankton communities was investigated in the Mondego estuary (Portugal) during four consecutive years characterized by highly variable precipitation and, consequently, river flow regime. Monthly samples were collected along the estuarine gradient at five sampling stations. Seasonal, inter-annual and spatial distributions were evaluated by multivariate analyses and three diversity indices were applied (Species number, Shannon Diversity and Average Taxonomic Distinctness). A two-year drought period presented significant differences in salinity values, especially in 2005 (extreme drought event). During the study period, copepoda was the main dominant group and Acartia tonsa the most abundant species, with the exception of autumn 2006, where high abundances of the cladoceran Penilia avirostris were noticed. Multivariate analysis indicated that zooplankton communities changed from a pre- to a post-drought period indicating the influence of hydrological parameters in communities' structure. The dry period was associated with an increase in zooplankton density, a reduction in seasonality and higher abundance and prevalence of marine species throughout the year. Seasonally, winter/spring communities were distinct from those in summer/autumn. Spatially, salinity-associated differences between upstream and downstream communities were reduced during the drought years, but during the post-drought year, these differences were detected again.     

Multi-spacecraft study of foreshock cavitons upstream of the quasi-parallel bow shock

In this work we perform the first multi-spacecraft analysis of two foreshock cavitons observed by the Cluster spacecraft. We also study the characteristics of their surrounding regions. Foreshock cavitons are a relatively new type of phenomena in the Earth's foreshock. They appear in regions deep inside the foreshock and are therefore always immersed in a sea of ULF waves and suprathermal particles. In the observational data the cavitons appear as simultaneous depressions of interplanetary magnetic field and plasma density. The two cavitons presented here have highly structured interiors and exhibit surface irregularities. They propagate sunwards in the reference frame of the solar wind plasma. Since their velocities are smaller than the solar wind velocity, the cavitons are convected towards the Earth by the solar wind flow. Their sizes are comparable to the size of the Earth. We show that the cavitons are different from other foreshock phenomena, such as cavities. The latter are thought to form by thermal expansion due to the excess of thermal pressure caused by intense flux of suprathermal ions in their interiors. Thermal pressure inside the cavitons is the same as in their surroundings, so they cannot form in this way. The proposed mechanism for the caviton formation includes nonlinear interactions between different types of ULF waves deep inside the foreshock.     

Selection of the data time interval for the prediction of maximum ozone concentrations

This paper highlights the problem of step-length selection for the one-step-ahead prediction of ozone called the data time interval. This is done using a case study-based comparison of two approaches for predicting the maximum daily values of tropospheric ozone. The first approach is the 1-day-ahead prediction and the second is the prediction of the maximum values based on a multi-step-ahead iteration of 1-h predictions. Gaussian process modelling is utilised for this comparison. In particular, evolving Gaussian-process models are used that update on-line with the incoming measurement data. These sorts of models have been successfully used in the past for the prediction of ozone pollution. This paper contributes an assessment of the way that the maximum ozone values are predicted. A comparison of the daily maximum ozone values forecasted by a model based on 1-day-ahead predictions with those obtained by iterated 1-h-ahead predictions of the ozone with predictions at predetermined hours of the day is given. The forecast results are in favour of the on-line model based on hourly predictions when approaching closer to the real maximum values of ozone, and in favour of the daily predictions when they are made on a daily basis.