Comparison of Observations at ACE and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ulysses</Emphasis> with Enlil Model Results: Stream Interaction Regions During Carrington Rotations 2016 – 2018

During the latitudinal alignment in 2004, ACE and Ulysses encountered two stream interaction regions (SIRs) each Carrington rotation from 2016 to 2018, at 1 and 5.4 AU, respectively. More SIR-driven shocks were observed at 5.4 AU than at 1 AU. Three small SIRs at 1 AU merged to form a strong SIR at 5.4 AU. We compare the Enlil model results with spacecraft observations from four aspects: i) the accuracy of the latest versions of models (WSA v2.2 and Enlil v2.7) vs. old versions (WSA v1.6 and Enlil v2.6), ii) the sensitivity to different solar magnetograms (MWO vs. NSO), iii) the sensitivity to different coronal models (WSA vs. MAS), iv) the predictive capability at 1 AU vs. 5.4 AU. We find the models can capture field sector boundaries with some time offset. Although the new versions have improved the SIR timing prediction, the time offset can be up to two days at 1 AU and four days at 5.4 AU. The models cannot capture some small-scale structures, including shocks and small SIRs at 1 AU. For SIRs, the temperature and total pressure are often underestimated, while the density compression is overestimated. For slow wind, the density is usually overestimated, while the temperature, magnetic field, and total pressure are often underestimated. The new versions have improved the prediction of the speed and density, but they need more robust scaling factors for magnetic field. The Enlil model results are very sensitive to different solar magnetograms and coronal models. It is hard to determine which magnetogram-coronal model combination is superior to others. Higher-resolution solar and coronal observations, a mission closer to the Sun, together with simulations of greater resolution and added physics, are ways to make progress for the solar wind modeling.     

An upgraded version of the Eta model

Upgrades implemented over a number of years in an open source version of the Eta model, posted at the CPTEC web site http://etamodel.cptec.inpe.br/, are summarized and examples of benefits are shown. The version originates from the NCEP’s Workstation Eta code posted on the NCEP web site http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/wrkstn_eta, which differs from the NCEP’s latest operational Eta by having the WRF-NMM nonhydrostatic option included. Most of the upgrades made resulted from attention paid to less than satisfactory performance noted in several Eta results, and identification of the reasons for the problem. Others came from simple expectation that including a feature that is physically justified but is missing in the code should help. The most notable of the upgrades are the introduction of the so-called sloping steps, or discretized shaved cells topography; piecewise-linear finite-volume vertical advection of dynamic variables; vapor and hydrometeor loading in the hydrostatic equation, and changes aimed at refining the convection schemes available in the Eta. Several other modifications have to do with the calculation of exchange coefficients, conservation in the vertical diffusion, and diagnostic calculation of 10-m winds. Several examples showing improved performance resulting from the dynamics changes are given. One includes a case of unrealistically low temperatures in several mountain basins generated by a centered vertical advection difference scheme’s unphysical advection from below ground, removed by its replacement with a finite-volume scheme. Another is that of increased katabatic winds in the Terra Nova Bay Antarctica region. Successful forecast of the severe downslope zonda wind case in the lee of the highest peaks of the Andes is also shown, and some of the recent successful verification results of the use of the upgraded model are pointed out. The code is used at numerous places, and along with setup information it is available for outside users at the CPTEC Eta web site given above.     

Paleomagnetism of the Istria peninsula, Yugoslavia

280 core samples were collected from Upper Jurassic, Cretaceous and Eocene sediments outcropping in the Istria peninsula (Yugoslavia). Due to the very low intensities of the initial natural remanent magnetizations, more than 50% of the collection, consisting mainly of rock samples of Jurassic and Eocene sediments, was not suitable for paleomagnetic studies.The Cretaceous samples yield a mean paleomagnetic pole (lat. 53°, long. 275° and α₉₅ = 4.8°), which is significantly different from the African and European paleomagnetic poles of the same age. The position of the Istria peninsula on the autochthonous Adriatic platform allows the result to be interpreted as applicable to all the autochthonous Periadriatic region. This new paleomagnetic result indicates that the autochthonous Adriatic platform rotated counterclockwise over an angle of about 30° with respect to Africa in post-Mesozoic times.     

The space environment of Mercury at the times of the second and third MESSENGER flybys

The second and third flybys of Mercury by the MESSENGER spacecraft occurred, respectively, on 6 October 2008 and on 29 September 2009. In order to provide contextual information about the solar wind properties and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) near the planet at those times, we have used an empirical modeling technique combined with a numerical physics-based solar wind model. The Wang–Sheeley–Arge (WSA) method uses solar photospheric magnetic field observations (from Earth-based instruments) in order to estimate the inner heliospheric radial flow speed and radial magnetic field out to 21.5 solar radii from the Sun. This information is then used as input to the global numerical magnetohydrodynamic model, ENLIL, which calculates solar wind velocity, density, temperature, and magnetic field strength and polarity throughout the inner heliosphere. WSA-ENLIL calculations are presented for the several-week period encompassing the second and third flybys. This information, in conjunction with available MESSENGER data, aid in understanding the Mercury flyby observations and provide a basis for global magnetospheric modeling. We find that during both flybys, the solar wind conditions were very quiescent and would have provided only modest dynamic driving forces for Mercury's magnetospheric system.     

Current Status and Future Challenges of Weather Radar Polarimetry: Bridging the Gap between Radar Meteorology/Hydrology/Engineering and Numerical Weather Prediction

After decades of research and development, the WSR-88 D(NEXRAD) network in the United States was upgraded with dual-polarization capability, providing polarimetric radar data(PRD) that have the potential to improve weather observations,quantification, forecasting, and warnings. The weather radar networks in China and other countries are also being upgraded with dual-polarization capability. Now, with radar polarimetry technology having matured, and PRD available both nationally and globally, it is important to understand the current status and future challenges and opportunities. The potential impact of PRD has been limited by their oftentimes subjective and empirical use. More importantly, the community has not begun to regularly derive from PRD the state parameters, such as water mixing ratios and number concentrations, used in numerical weather prediction(NWP) models.In this review, we summarize the current status of weather radar polarimetry, discuss the issues and limitations of PRD usage, and explore potential approaches to more efficiently use PRD for quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting based on statistical retrieval with physical constraints where prior information is used and observation error is included. This approach aligns the observation-based retrievals favored by the radar meteorology community with the model-based analysis of the NWP community. We also examine the challenges and opportunities of polarimetric phased array radar research and development for future weather observation.     

Heliospheric Imaging of 3D Density Structures During the Multiple Coronal Mass Ejections of Late July to Early August 2010

It is usually difficult to gain a consistent global understanding of a coronal mass ejection (CME) eruption and its propagation when only near-Sun imagery and the local measurements derived from single-spacecraft observations are available. Three-dimensional (3D) density reconstructions based on heliospheric imaging allow us to “fill in” the temporal and spatial gaps between the near-Sun and in situ data to provide a truly global picture of the propagation and interactions of the CME as it moves through the inner heliosphere. In recent years the heliospheric propagation of dense structures has been observed and measured by the heliospheric imagers of the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) and on the twin Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft. We describe the use of several 3D reconstruction techniques based on these heliospheric imaging data sets to distinguish and track the propagation of multiple CMEs in the inner heliosphere during the very active period of solar activity in late July?–?early August 2010. We employ 3D reconstruction techniques used at the University of California, San Diego (UCSD) based on a kinematic solar wind model, and also the empirical Tappin–Howard model. We compare our results with those from other studies of this active period, in particular the heliospheric simulations made with the ENLIL model by Odstrcil et al. (J. Geophys. Res., 2013) and the in situ results from multiple spacecraft provided by Möstl et al. (Astrophys. J. 758, 10?–?28, 2012). We find that the SMEI results in particular provide an overall context for the multiple-density flows associated with these CMEs. For the first time we are able to intercompare the 3D reconstructed densities with the timing and magnitude of in situ density structures at five spacecraft spread over 150° in ecliptic longitude and from 0.4 to 1 AU in radial distance. We also model the magnetic flux-rope structures at three spacecraft using both force-free and non-force-free modelling, and compare their timing and spatial structure with the reconstructed density flows.     

Mars mesospheric zonal wind around northern spring equinox from infrared heterodyne observations of CO2

We present direct observations of Mars zonal wind velocities around northern spring equinox (L_S = 336°, L_S = 355°, L_S = 42°) during martian year 27 and 29. Data was acquired by means of infrared heterodyne spectroscopy of CO₂ features at 959.3917 cm^?1 (10.4232 μm) and 957.8005 cm^?1 (10.4405 μm) using the Cologne Tuneable Heterodyne Infrared Spectrometer (THIS) at the McMath–Pierce telescope of the National Solar Observatory on Kitt Peak in Arizona and the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility on Mauna Kea, Hawaii between 2005 and 2008. Winds were measured on the dayside of Mars with an unprecedented spatial resolution allowing sampling of up to nine independent latitudes over the martian disk. Retrieved wind velocities depend strongly on latitude and season with values ranging from 180 m/s prograde to ?94 m/s retrograde. A comparison of the observational results to predicted values from the Mars Climate Database yield a reasonable agreement between modeling and observation.