Reservoir operation by staging due to climate variability

The changing environment enhances the hydrological cycle and increases the frequency of extreme floods. In this paper, the impacts of climate variability on flood season segmentation are determined and the scientific basis for determining corresponding flood limiting water levels (FLWLs) is provided. Climate variation was determined and then the flood season was divided into several sub-seasons using the results of the set pair analysis method (SPAM) and four indices; peak floods crossing the transitional periods were sampled to obtain a design flood hydrograph; and, finally, seasonal FLWLs were determined for reservoir operation. The performance of this reservoir staging operation was evaluated for a case study in the Chengbihe Reservoir, China.     

基于弹性系数法的径流对气候变化与人类活动响应研究

基于永定河流域内1957~2010年降雨、蒸发和径流数据,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法结合距平序列变化情况分析蒸发能力、降雨和径流的变化趋势;运用Mann-Kendall突变检验法、Hurst系数法分析流域径流序列的突变年及对应的突变程度;在此基础上以径流突变年为界划分基准期和变化期,采用弹性系数法定量分析气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响,并简要分析其原因。结果表明:流域蒸发能力呈现上升趋势,降雨和径流呈现递减趋势;径流序列突变点发生在1984年,突变程度属中度变异;永定河流域由气候变化引起的径流变化率为28%,而由于人类活动引起的径流变化率为72%,可见人类活动是影响永定河流域径流变化的主要驱动因素。     

扬子板块东南边缘海西-印支期边缘前陆盆地演化及南方大地构造问题

序言前陆盆地是由板块碰撞引起侧向挤压,进而形成冲断推覆体(thrust mass)加载于大陆边缘,使大陆地壳周缘前陆隆起(peripheral forebulge)形成的一种不对称盆地,它的一侧与发育周缘前陆隆起的克拉通大陆为邻,另一侧靠近冲断推覆体。靠近冲断推覆体侧的一端主要发育陆源碎屑沉积,而靠近克拉通大陆的一边则发育成为碳酸盐台地。由于碰撞后大陆岩石圈的持续俯冲,造成冲断推覆体跨过先前被动大陆边缘,进而向克拉通陆内迁移发展,致使碳酸盐台地最终全被陆源碎屑掩埋。最初,冲断推覆体位于海平面之下,随着冲断推覆体叠加而成山链,加载于大陆边缘薄的外部地壳之上,沿缝合线形成一个深而狭长的边缘海槽地,接受陆源泥和深海沉积物沉     

Risk variation of reservoir regulation during flood season based on bivariate statistical approach under climate change: a case study in the Chengbihe reservoir,China

The risk analysis of reservoir regulation in the flood season is crucial and provides the valuable information for reservoir flood control, safety operation, and decision making, especially under climate change. The purpose of this study is to propose a framework for reasonably estimating the variation of reservoir regulation risk including the dam extreme risk and the overtopping risk during the flood season under climate change. The framework consists of an integrated diagnostic system for detecting the climate abrupt change time, a copula function-based bivariate statistical approach for modeling the dependence between the flood peak and flood volume, a Monte Carlo simulation for generating numerous random flood peak–volume pairs, and a risk calculation model for routing the design flood hydrographs to obtain the frequency curve of the maximum water level reached in front of dam and evaluating the reservoir regulation risk. The methodology was implemented in the Chengbihe reservoir in south China by using the 55-year (1963–2017) hydrometeorological data, including temperature, evaporation, precipitation, and streamflow, in the flood season. Results show that the hydrometeorological series during the flood season changed abruptly in 1992 and the entire data can be divided into two periods (1963–1992 and 1993–2017). The dam extreme risk and overtopping risk during the two periods are assessed, respectively, and a comparison analysis is made based on different flood limit water-level schemes (185.00–188.50 m). It demonstrates that both the dam extreme risk and the dam overtopping risk increase under the influence of climate change. The dam extreme risk increases by 22.91–95.03%, while the climate change-induced increase in the dam overtopping risk is between 38.62 and 123.59%, which indicates that the dam overtopping risk is more sensitive to climate change than the dam extreme risk. The risk evaluations in the study are of great significance in the safety operation and risk management of reservoirs under future climate change.