Multiple-tracers-aided surface-subsurface hydrological modeling for detailed characterization of regional catchment water dynamics in Kumamoto area,southern Japan

Hydrogeology Journal - Integrated watershed modeling techniques have been applied in recent years to examine surface and subsurface interactions. Model performance is often evaluated by best fit of...     

Projected future changes in the contribution of Indo-Pacific sea surface height variability to the Indonesian throughflow

The Indonesian throughflow (ITF) transports a significant amount of warm freshwater from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, making it critical to the global climate system. This study examines decadal ITF variations using ocean reanalysis data as well as climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). While the observed annual cycle of ITF transport is known to be correlated with the annual cycle of sea surface height (SSH) difference between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, ocean reanalysis data (1959–2015) show that the Pacific Ocean SSH variability controls more than 85% of ITF variation on decadal timescales. In contrast, the Indian Ocean SSH variability contributes less than 15%. While those observed contributions are mostly reproduced in the CMIP5 historical simulations, an analysis of future climate projections shows a 25–30% increase in the Indian Ocean SSH variability to decadal ITF variations and a corresponding decrease in the Pacific contribution. These projected changes in the Indian Ocean SSH variability are associated with a 23% increase in the amplitudes of negative zonal wind stress anomalies over the equatorial Indian Ocean, along with a 12º eastward shift in the center of action in these anomalies. This combined effect of the increased amplitude and eastward shift in the zonal wind stress increases the SSHA variance over the Indian Ocean, increasing its contribution to the ITF variation. The decadal ITF changes discussed in this study will be crucial in understanding the future global climate variability, strongly coupled to Indo-Pacific interactions.

     

Intraseasonal SST-precipitation relationship and its spatial variability over the tropical summer monsoon region

The SST-precipitation relationship in the intraseasonal variability (ISV) over the Asian monsoon region is examined using recent high quality satellite data and simulations from a state of the art coupled model, the climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2). CFSv2 demonstrates high skill in reproducing the spatial distribution of the observed climatological mean summer monsoon precipitation along with its interannual variability, a task which has been a conundrum for many recent climate coupled models. The model also exhibits reasonable skill in simulating coherent northward propagating monsoon intraseasonal anomalies including SST and precipitation, which are generally consistent with observed ISV characteristics. Results from the observations and the model establish the existence of spatial variability in the atmospheric convective response to SST anomalies, over the Asian monsoon domain on intraseasonal timescales. The response is fast over the Arabian Sea, where precipitation lags SST by ~5 days; whereas it is slow over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea, with a lag of ~12 days. The intraseasonal SST anomalies result in a similar atmospheric response across the basins, which consists of a destabilization of the bottom of the atmospheric column, as observed from the equivalent potential temperature anomalies near the surface. However, the presence of a relatively strong surface convergence over the Arabian Sea, due to the presence of a strong zonal gradient in SST, which accelerates the upward motion of the moist air, results in a relatively faster response in terms of the local precipitation anomalies over the Arabian Sea than over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea. With respect to the observations, the ocean–atmosphere coupling is well simulated in the model, though with an overestimation of the intraseasonal SST anomalies, leading to an exaggerated SST-precipitation relationship. A detailed examination points to a systematic bias in the thickness of the mixed layer of the ocean model, which needs to be rectified. A too shallow (deep) mixed layer enhances (suppress) the amplitude of the intraseasonal SST anomalies, thereby amplifying (lessening) the ISV and the active-break phases of the monsoon in the model.     

Interface wave generated by an electromagnetic induction source

Interface waves such as the Scholte wave are a useful tool to study geoacoustic properties and can be conventionally generated by an explosive or a pneumatic source on/above the seafloor. This type of source, however, generates strong compressional waves in the water and sediment at the same time; these waves then disturb an observation of interface waves and leads to difficulty in processing. These sources are also relatively hard to control at sea from a viewpoint of repeatability and stability of interface waves to be generated. In addition, environmental problems caused by those sources is a concern. In this paper, an electromagnetic induction source whose vibrator plate hits the seafloor directly and excites interface waves is described. The capability of this source was evaluated both in a water tank and at seashore. The pulsed Scholte waves excited both by several types of electromagnetic induction source having a different shape of vibrator plate and by dropping weight were transmitted in sediment and received using geophones. As a result of comparison of measured signals, the pulse signal propagating from the source demonstrates a sharper rise time than that from dropping weight     

Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results

In this study, we constructed a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) for the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (CGCM) to investigate the parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity (CS). Previous studies of PPEs have mainly used the atmosphere-slab ocean models. A few PPE studies using a CGCM applied flux corrections, because perturbations in parameters can lead to large radiation imbalances at the top of the atmosphere and climate drifts. We developed a method to prevent climate drifts in PPE experiments using the MIROC5 CGCM without flux corrections. We simultaneously swept 10 parameters in atmosphere and surface schemes. The range of CS (estimated from our 35 ensemble members) was not wide (2.2–3.2?°C). The shortwave cloud feedback related to changes in middle-level cloud albedo dominated the variations in the total feedback. We found three performance metrics for the present climate simulations of middle-level cloud albedo, precipitation, and ENSO amplitude that systematically relate to the variations in shortwave cloud feedback in this PPE.     

Influences of the snow cover on landslide displacement in winter period: a case study in a heavy snowfall area of Japan

The displacement of a relatively small reactivated landslide in a snowy area in Japan was monitored over a long period. The displacement rate of the landslide, which was approximately of 20 mm d^?1 before the formation of snow cover, decelerated drastically during the continuous snow cover period every winter period. Possible causes included reduction in the amount of water that reached the ground surface (MR: meltwater and/or rainwater) and increase in snow load. Given that the actual displacement of the landslide was far below the predicted value based on the relationship between landslide displacement and MR immediately before the continuous snow cover period, the deceleration of landslide displacement was more likely attributable to the increase in snow load than to the reduction in MR. An investigation of the link between snow load and landslide displacement showed a negative logarithmic relationship. A dynamic analysis based on the limit equilibrium method showed that snow load increases the effective normal stress and the stability of a landslide in which the mean inclination angle of the slip surface is smaller than the internal friction angle. The stability of the actual slope was also analyzed by conducting soil tests on samples collected at the site and using the resultant parameters. The analysis also showed that the increase in snow load increases the safety factor and reduces the landslide displacement. The displacement of a relatively small landslide that has a shallow slip surface was found to be greatly influenced by snow cover.     

A study of the morphology of winter sprites in the Hokuriku area of Japan in relation to cloud charge height

Continuous observations of sprites in the Hokuriku area of Japan were performed from two optical sites during the three winter periods. The purpose of this observation is to study the major effect in the appearance of sprites and in determining the morphology of sprites (columns or carrots). Detailed analysis is performed based on the estimation of the height of ?10 °C at the time of sprite occurrence. When the height of ?10 °C is lower than 1800 m, the occurrence of sprites is infrequent, and the dominant shape is column. Then when it is increased (1800–3000 m), a new situation takes place, namely the occurrence of sprites is very enhanced and more spectacular shapes like carrots tend to be frequently observed in addition to column sprites. These sprite characteristics are first compared with those of parent lightning in the Hokuriku area and with our latest computer simulations on sprite initiation.     

Three-dimensional EM computer simulation on sprite initiation above a horizontal lightning discharge

The purpose of this paper is to study the three-dimensional (3D) effects of the source current and the electromagnetic (EM) pulse on the distribution of upper atmospheric electric field and ionization created. A new lightning model has been employed; i.e., we have included a horizontal channel in addition to the conventional vertical channel. The effects of the horizontal lightning channel are summarized as follows: (1) the effect of a vertical channel plays a fundamental role in the whole view of sprite initiation; (2) the position of a sprite is shifted from the position of its parent vertical channel in response to the length of a horizontal channel; and (3) we observe very fine structures with local maxima and minima in the “reduced” electric field (the electric field divided by the neutral gas density). These theoretical inferences are discussed and compared with the observational facts so far reported (such as lateral shift of sprites, morphological difference of sprites, etc.).     

Simulation of near source ground motion and its characteristics

It is fact that the severe ground motions of shear waves have a strong effect on the dynamic behavior of buildings and civil structures. We simulate near source strong motions of a pure shear wave and synthesize small motions, using the parameters based on the recorded accelerograms at the site that is regarded as a base rock in the Osaka basin, Japan. By making use of a stochastic technique, we can easily introduce higher frequency contents in the motions and apply the technique to the synthesis of small waves regarding as a green function. We also introduce to the analysis the useful relationships among the time duration T_d, the seismic moment M₀, the corner frequency f_c and the high cutoff frequency f_max which were regressed by a simple representation scheme. Considering two active faults that may affect severe damage on buildings and civil structures, we try to predict strong ground motions in Osaka basin and show the characteristics of them.