Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867     

Static properties of galaxies in the Shapley-centaurus cluster

The data of Paper I (Doddet al., 1986), representing a catalogue of parameters measured for bright galaxies in field 444 of the Southern Sky Survey, are examined in a search for non-random effects. A global trend of bimodal alignment of galaxies in this field is found. This effect is present even for galaxies of large apparent ellipticity (e0.5) and is interpreted as revealing a real physical phenomenon on the large scale in this field. Analysis of nearest neighbouring pairs of galaxies reveals evidence also for small-scale interactions. The difference in apparent ellipticities between close pairs is larger than would be expected if the galaxies were randomly distributed. Nearest neighbouring galaxies also show a strong preference to be aligned with their major axes parallel. The results are discussed with regard to theories for galaxy formation.     

Quick-look assessments to identify optimal CO2 EOR storage sites

A newly developed, multistage quick-look methodology allows for the efficient screening of an unmanageably large number of reservoirs to generate a workable set of sites that closely match the requirements for optimal CO₂ enhanced oil recovery (EOR) storage. The objective of the study is to quickly identify miscible CO₂ EOR candidates in areas that contain thousands of reservoirs and to estimate additional oil recovery and sequestration capacities of selected top options through dimensionless modeling and reservoir characterization. Quick-look assessments indicate that the CO₂ EOR resource potential along the US Gulf Coast is 4.7 billion barrels, and CO₂ sequestration capacity is 2.6 billion metric tons. In the first stage, oil reservoirs are screened and ranked in terms of technical and practical feasibility for miscible CO₂ EOR. The second stage provides quick estimates of CO₂ EOR potential and sequestration capacities. In the third stage, a dimensionless group model is applied to a selected set of sites to improve the estimates of oil recovery and storage potential using appropriate inputs for rock and fluid properties, disregarding reservoir architecture and sweep design. The fourth stage validates and refines the results by simulating flow in a model that describes the internal architecture and fluid distribution in the reservoir. The stated approach both saves time and allows more resources to be applied to the best candidate sites.     

Particulate flux in the water column overlying Santa Monica Basin

Fluxes of particulate carbon, nitrogen, phytoplankton pigments, biogenic silica and dry mass were measured using free-floating and moored sediment trap arrays in the Santa Monica Basin during the period from October 1985 to August 1990 as part of the California Basin Study (CaBS) Program. In field testing for potential sources of sediment trap biases, we found little significant or consistent difference in rate estimates between short-term drifting traps and long-term moored traps, between preserved and unpreserved traps in short-term experiments, between different preservatives (mercury or formalin) in long-term experiments, between different designs of small cylindrical traps, and between deep-moored cylindrical traps and large conical traps. We did, however, find that sediment trap samples collected and analyzed on 0.45 μm silver filters gave estimates of carbon and nitrogen fluxes about 25% higher than samples collected on GF/F glass-fiber filters. Concurrent trap deployments at two stations 18km apart revealed low mesoscale variability in flux estimates. Seasonal patterns in carbon and nitrogen flux were not evident in our data, but strong seasonality, with spring maxima and summer minima, were observed for fluxes of phaeopigments and biogenic silica out of the euphotic zone.Time-averaged rates of particulate flux for long-term trap deployments from January to August 1990, were 121, 18.8, 1.5, 67 and 633mg m⁻²d⁻¹ at 110–135m for carbon, nitrogen, phaeopigment, biogenic silica and mass, respectively. Flux estimates to the basin floor (835–860m) were 50, 6.5, 0.64, 41.6 and 575mg m⁻²d⁻¹ for the same parameters. The former estimates are constrained by and in good agreement with independent assessments of new production from nitrate uptake in the euphotic zone. The latter agree with rates previously inferred from the sedimentary record using ²¹⁰Pb as a tracer. In addition, the difference in carbon estimates in the water column between the euphotic zone and the basin floor is consistent with the requirements for bacterial growth and metabolism at intermediate depths as measured by the thymidine method.     

Placing sexuality in health policies: feminist geographies and public health nursing

Despite the increasing public profile of same-sex issues, health policies are often shaped by heteronormative assumptions. The health concerns of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transsexual/transgender, two-spirit, intersex, queer and questioning (LGBTTTIQQ) people are complex and require broadening from an often exclusively sexual health and risk focus to a more holistic approach. In this context, this paper illustrates how a critical feminist geography of health, with its focus on the mutual construction of gender relations, space and place, potentially enhances and extends current understandings of public health policy and practice. Moreover, the use of a policy lens foregrounding gender and other power relations suggests that feminist research and coalitions facilitate participatory processes that address “the politics of discourse.” In particular, public health nursing practice can enhance the construction of spaces of resistance that challenge heteronormative discourse through research strategies focused on sexual minority communities’ health experiences and their visions for supportive care. In this respect, two strategies consistent with public health priorities to increase knowledge and participate in alliances are described. Ethnographic research with childbearing lesbians demonstrates that attention to institutional dynamics that foster safe spaces can facilitate access to public health services. Public health nurses’ involvement in community coalitions can enhance dissemination of community knowledges. The implications for gender inclusive and place-sensitive public health nursing practice include the development of sensitive educators, meaningful educational curriculum and related program planning, explicit policies, community partnerships and political leadership in institutional and research venues.     

March 1990 Hailstorm Damage in Sydney,Australia

On 18 March 1990, an intense hailstorm in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia caused insured damage valued at A$million – the third most expensive loss event in Australian insurance history.While damage was widespread with claims for buildings spread across more than 130 postcodes, 20% of the claims came from just two postcodes. The proportion of dwellings of brick construction that made a claim was significantly less than the proportion of policies for this type of construction. Fibro (fibre-cement), timber and aluminium-clad dwellings are more likely to sustain damage than brick buildings in this type of storm.Hail caused the majority of damage to exterior building items while water damage more commonly affected interior building items and contents. While the repair of Interior building items such as ceilings and walls cost more than contents damage on average, the repair/replacement costs of contents contributed more to the total costs. Damage to window glass and roofs together made up more than 50% of the total claim.     

Seasonal records of climatic change in annually laminated tufas: short review and future prospects

Many Recent and fossil freshwater tufa stromatolites contain millimetre‐scale, alternating laminae of dense micrite and more porous or sparry crystalline calcites. These alternating laminae have been interpreted to represent seasonally controlled differences in the biotic activity of microbes, and/or seasonally controlled changes in the rate of calcification. Either way, couplets of these microbially mediated alternating calcified laminae are generally agreed to represent annual seasonality. Combined stable isotope (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) and trace element (Mg, Sr, Ba) geochemistry from Recent tufa stromatolites show that seasonal climatic information is available from these calcites. Variability in δ¹⁸O (and in one case Mg concentration) has been shown to be controlled primarily by stream temperature change, usually driven by solar insolation. In arid climates, seasonal evaporation can also cause δ¹⁸O enrichment by at least 1‰. Variability in δ¹³C results potentially from: (1) seasonal change in plant uptake of ¹²C‐enriched CO₂; (2) seasonal change in degassing of ¹²C‐enriched CO₂ in the aquifer system; and (3) precipitation of calcite along the aquifer or river flow path, a process that increases δ¹³C of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the remaining water. Mechanisms 2 and 3 are linked because calcite precipitates in aquifers where degassing occurs, e.g. air pockets. The latter mechanism for δ¹³C enrichment has also been shown to cause sympathetic variation between trace element/Ca ratios and δ¹³C because trace elements with partition coefficients much greater than 1 (e.g. Sr, Ba) remain preferentially in solution. Since degassing in air pockets will be enhanced during decreased recharge when water saturation of the aquifer is lowest, sympathetic variation in trace element/Ca ratios and δ¹³C is a possible index of recharge and therefore precipitation intensity. High‐resolution geochemical data from well‐dated tufa stromatolites have great potential for Quaternary palaeoclimate reconstructions, possibly allowing recovery of annual seasonal climatic information including water temperature variation and change in rainfall intensity. However, careful consideration of diagenetic effects, particularly aggrading neomorphism, needs to be the next step. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stability analysis of tunnels driven in jointed rocks by means of a homogenized limit analysis approach

Conceived as a potential alternative to the classical design methods employed for analyzing the stability of underground structures driven in jointed rocks, the homogenization approach stems from the heuristic idea that, from a macroscopic point of view, a rock mass cut by a network of joints may be perceived as a homogenized continuum. The strength properties of the latter can be theoretically obtained from the failure conditions of its individual constituents: rock matrix and joint interfaces. At the material level, the limit analysis reasoning is used in the context of homogenization to formulate the homogenized strength criterion of a jointed rock mass in the particular situation of a single set of parallel joints. As it could be expected, the obtained closed‐form expressions show the strength anisotropy induced by joint preferential orientation. The support functions (π functions) associated with the homogenized strength criterion are also determined in both plane strain and three‐dimensional cases. This criterion is then applied to the investigation of stability analysis of a tunnel excavated in a jointed rock mass. Upper bounds estimated of the stability factor are derived from the implementation of the kinematic approach directly on the homogenized underground structure. Finally, the approach is applied to analyze and discuss the collapse of the Pinheiros subway station (São Paulo, Brazil). Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.