导致塔里木河流域土地沙漠化扩展的深层次原因分析

就塔里木河流域的总体情况而言,在人类历史之前,沙漠化形成是一种完全受气候变化制约的自然过程,在现代干旱环境背景下,超载放牧、滥挖滥采、毁林毁草开荒以及水资源的不合理利用是导致目前塔里木河干流沙漠化持续扩展的几种主要的不合理人为活动。那么,又是什么原因促使人们在与自然相处过程中,采取了这些显然违背自然规律的活动？在实地考察基础上,结合前人研究的成果资料,对导致塔里木河流域沙漠化扩展的深层次原因进行分析。认为,主要是人口压力、政策失误和利益驱动促使人们在与自然相处过程中,采取了这些显然违背自然规律的活动。因此,控制人口增长、采取正确的政策引导、正确处理经济利益和生态环境之间的关系是促进当地土地沙漠化逆转所必须的。     

Dynamics of hourly sea level at Hillarys Boat Harbour,Western Australia: a chaos theory perspective

Water level forecasting using recorded time series can provide a local modelling capability to facilitate local proactive management practices. To this end, hourly sea water level time series are investigated. The records collected at the Hillarys Boat Harbour, Western Australia, are investigated over the period of 2000 and 2002. Two modelling techniques are employed: low-dimensional dynamic model, known as the deterministic chaos theory, and genetic programming, GP. The phase space, which describes the evolution of the behaviour of a nonlinear system in time, was reconstructed using the delay-embedding theorem suggested by Takens. The presence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the phase space reconstruction and correlation dimension methods, and also the predictability into the future was calculated by the largest Lyapunov exponent to be 437 h or 18 days into the future. The intercomparison of results of the local prediction and GP models shows that for this site-specific dataset, the local prediction model has a slight edge over GP. However, rather than recommending one technique over another, the paper promotes a pluralistic modelling culture, whereby different techniques should be tested to gain a specific insight from each of the models. This would enable a consensus to be drawn from a set of results rather than ignoring the individual insights provided by each model.     

Dynamics of a complex mass movement triggered by heavy rainfall: a case study from NW Turkey

Following a period of heavy precipitation, a large and complex mass movement, namely the Dagkoy landslide, occurred in the West Black Sea Region of Turkey on May 21, 1998. This paper describes the conditioning factors of the landslide and interprets the mass transport processes in terms of a movement scenario. Geology, geomorphology and vegetation cover were considered as the conditioning factors of the failure. Observations showed that the gently sloping (about 10°) area is mostly covered by dense forest trees at the crown where the motion initiated. Significant intersection of the collapsed slope with dip of the local marls seems to have contributed to the formation and geometry of the landslide. The distance from the crown down to the toe of the landslide measured more than 600 m, with about 0.6 km³ total earth material displaced. The landslide has both a block sliding characteristics in the upper portions and a debris flow/soil flow component around the margins of the sliding blocks in the middle parts and at the toe. The proposed scenario for the landslide reveals that the movement was initiated near crown as a result of the excess water content in the marls at the end of 3 days of heavy rainfall. The early perturbations (transverse cracks, ridges, etc.) lasted for 6–7 h, after which the central part of the zone started to move as a soil flow in which very large intact blocks were transported. Even though the movement was very rapid (1.2 m/min), there was no loss of life. However, the movement destroyed 38 houses, one mosque and a considerable amount of farmland.     

Spatial analysis of cohabiting tertiary students’ housing location in Ibadan,Nigeria

Cohabitation, as a form of sexual relationship, is becoming popular among tertiary students in developing countries. This is largely due to emergence of sexual liberalization that projects premarital sex as acceptable societal norm. The paper analyses the spatial pattern of cohabitation in communities abutting tertiary institutions in Ibadan, Nigeria. Snowball sampling technique was used to identify cohabiters at Agbowo and Apete and the Coordinates of their residence were taken using Global Positioning System. Nearest Neighbour Analysis (NNA) was adopted for spatial analysis. Spatial pattern of cohabitation at Agbowo (NNA value 1.072615) shows a random pattern. The pattern at Apete (NNA value 0.802374) displays a cluster pattern. Finding identifies, ownership, use and types of building; inadequate on-campus accommodation; peer pressure and poverty as cohabitation causal factors influencing the observed spatial patterns. Therefore, parents and guardians should adopt high-investment strategy in safeguarding the welfare and wellbeing of their wards.     

Prediction of uniaxial compressive strength of sandstones using petrography-based models

The uniaxial compressive strength of intact rock is the main parameter used in almost all engineering projects. The uniaxial compressive strength test requires high quality core samples of regular geometry. The standard cores cannot always be extracted from weak, highly fractured, thinly bedded, foliated and/or block-in-matrix rocks. For this reason, the simple prediction models become attractive for engineering geologists. Although, the sandstone is one of the most abundant rock type, a general prediction model for the uniaxial compressive strength of sandstones does not exist in the literature. The main purposes of the study are to investigate the relationships between strength and petrographical properties of sandstones, to construct a database as large as possible, to perform a logical parameter selection routine, to discuss the key petrographical parameters governing the uniaxial compressive strength of sandstones and to develop a general prediction model for the uniaxial compressive strength of sandstones. During the analyses, a total of 138 cases including uniaxial compressive strength and petrographic properties were employed. Independent variables for the multiple prediction model were selected as quartz content, packing density and concavo–convex type grain contact. Using these independent variables, two different prediction models such as multiple regression and ANN were developed. Also, a routine for the selection of the best prediction model was proposed in the study. The constructed models were checked by using various prediction performance indices. Consequently, it is possible to say that the constructed models can be used for practical purposes.     

近50 a以来塔里木河下游土地沙漠化影响因子分析

 塔里木河下游地区是干旱区中沙漠化进程最显著的地区之一,一直深受社会各界关注,尤其是它的成因。由于近50 a来人类不合理的水土资源和生物资源的开发利用,导致塔里木河下游大西海子水库以下363 km河道断流近30 a,地下水位由20世纪50年代的3～5 m逐年下降至2000年的8～12 m,由此而引起下游天然植被面积逐年减少。由于天然植被严重衰败,固定和半固定沙地面积也以百分之几至百分之几十的速率减小,林间沙地活化,沙漠化面积逐年增加,沙漠化程度也在不断增强,塔里木河下游地区1958年沙漠化面积仅占土地总面积的12%,到2000年沙漠化土地面积超过90%,使本来就处于干旱环境中的塔里木河下游朝着更加干旱的方向急剧发展。在塔里木河下游这一特定区域,从近50 a来研究区域平均气温和降水资料来看,降水和气温有波动性变化,但毕竟较小;现代气候条件和变化的幅度不足以造成环境大的改变,不足以造成沙漠的大幅度扩张或收缩,大范围的活化或固定;而同期人口急剧增加造成的压力和经济活动对环境的强烈干扰,才是造成大范围生态环境恶化和沙漠化发生发展的主要原因。     

An investigation of the relationship between uniaxial compressive strength and degradation for selected rock types

The relationship between uniaxial compressive strength and degradation was investigated for selected rock types, by using regression analyses to determine whether degradation was a useful predictor of compressive strength. In addition, the effects of aggregate particle size, number of hammer blows during the degradation test, engineering index properties, petrographic characteristics, and water saturation on the compressive strength-degradation relationship were evaluated. The results show that strong inverse relationships exist between compressive strength and degradation (measured on a 9.5-4.75-mm size aggregate) for sandstones and igneous/metamorphic rocks, but that no significant relationship exists for limestones/dolomites. The results also indicate a strong positive correlation between degradation and L.A. abrasion loss and can be used to establish a limit of allowable degradation for practical applications. Engineering index properties do not significantly affect the relationship between compressive strength and degradation but petrographic characteristics are important in explaining the strength and degradation behavior of the rocks studied. Water saturation decreases compressive strength and increases degradation to varying degrees.     

Visibility and Incidence of Respiratory Diseases During the 1998 Haze Episode in Brunei Darussalam

— Air pollution episodes as a result of forest fires in Brunei Darussalam and neighbouring regions have reached hazardous levels in recent years. Such episodes are generally associated with poor visibility and air quality conditions. In the present study, data on PM₁₀ (particulate matter of size less than 10 microns) and CO in Brunei Darussalam have been considered to study the incidence of respiratory diseases whereas data on relative humidity (RH) in addition to PM₁₀ have been used to explain the visibility with a particular emphasis on haze episode during 1998.¶Initial exploratory analysis indicates significant correlation of visibility with PM₁₀ and RH. An attempt has been made to explain visibility on the basis of PM₁₀ and RH using multiple linear regression analysis. The regression model shows that PM₁₀ and RH are two significant factors affecting the visibility at a given site. Further, canonical correlation, a multivariate method of analysis, has been used to explain the incidence of respiratory diseases as a function of air quality during the haze period. The results indicate that PM₁₀ and CO levels during the haze period have a significant bearing on the incidence of respiratory diseases (Asthma, Acute Respiratory Infections and Influenza (ARII)).     

Contribution of benthic and epiphytic diatoms to clam and oyster production in the Akkeshi-ko estuary

The species composition and dynamics of phytoplankton in the water column and its contribution to clam, Ruditapes philippinarum, and oyster, Crassostrea gigas, production were studied in the Akkeshi-ko estuary, eastern part of Hokkaido, Japan. A total 128 taxa of diatoms were identified, with 103 and 102 species occurring on the surface sediments and in the water column, respectively. Amphora sp., Bacillaria paradoxa var paxilifer, Cocconeis scutellum, Navicula sp., Nitzschia sigma, Paralia sulcata, Rhoicosphenia curvata, Synedra ulna and Thalassiosira sp. were most common and dominant in all stations in both water column and surface sediment. Benthic diatoms were most dominant in both water column and surface sediment. The species composition of epiphytes was, in part, similar to diatom assemblage of the water column and also to that of the surface sediment. The benthic and pelagic ratio in the diatom assemblage of the water column was very high. Benthic diatoms were able to resuspend into water column by turbulence stimulated by wind. Chlorophyll a concentration in the water column increased as wind speed increased. Seventy and 67% of the gut contents oysters consisted of benthic diatoms in 2003 and 2004 and also 78 and 87% of clams in 2003 and 2004, respectively. The availability of benthic and epiphytic diatom assemblages contributes significantly to food resources for clam and oyster mariculture due to resuspension by disturbance in the Akkeshi-ko estuary.