Small inflation sources producing seismic and infrasonic pulses during the 2000 eruptions of Miyake-jima, Japan

During the 2000 activity of Miyake-jima volcano, Japan, we detected long period seismic signals with initial pulse widths of 1-2 s, accompanied by infrasonic pulses with almost the same pulse widths. The seismic signals were observed from 13 July 2000, a day before the second summit eruption. The occurrences of the seismic signals were intermittent with a gradual increase in their magnitudes and numbers building toward a significant explosive eruption on 18 August. After the eruption, the seismic and infrasonic events ceased. The results of a waveform inversion show that the initial motions were excited by an isotropic inflation source beneath the south edge of the caldera at a depth of 1.4 km. On the other hand, the sources of the infrasonic pulses were located in the summit caldera area. The times at which the infrasonic pulses were emitted at the surface were delayed by about 3 s from the origin times of the seismic events. It is suggested that small isotropic inflations excited seismic waves in the crust and simultaneously caused acoustic waves that traveled in the conduit and produced infrasonic pulses at the crater bottom. Considering the observed time differences and gas temperatures emitted from the vent, the conduit should have been filled with vapor mixed with SO₂ gas and volcanic ash. The change of the time differences between the seismic and infrasonic signals suggests that the seismic source became shallower within half a day before the August 18 explosive eruption. We interpret the source process as a fragmentation process of magma in which gas bubbles burst and quickly released part of the pressure that had been sustained by the tensional strength of magma.     

Sexual reproduction and early life‐history traits of the Mediterranean soft coral Alcyonium acaule

Understanding processes that contribute to a better comprehension of the population dynamics of long‐lived species is critical for the maintenance and potential recovery of such species. Despite the abundance of soft corals in Mediterranean rocky reefs, little information exists on their life histories and reproductive patterns. In this study, we assessed the main reproductive characteristics and early life‐history traits of the long‐lived soft coral Alcyonium acaule. The sex ratio was 1:1; the smallest fertile colonies were one finger in size (2.1 ± 0.6 cm in height), and both colony and polyp fertility increased with colony size. Likewise, the number of eggs and spermary sacs per polyp increased significantly with colony size, whereas the diameter of the female and male sexual products did not. Over 6 years of observations (2007–2012), spawning occurred primarily in July, after the seawater reached 20 °C, in a single spawning episode per year. Approximately 80% of female colonies released eggs, which were retained on the surface of the mother colony by mucous strings for up to a few days. High fertilization rates were observed during spawning in 2008 and 2009 (94.9% and 87.0%, respectively). The timing of development was ~24 h for the blastulae, ~48–72 h for the planulae and 8–22 days for metamorphosis into primary polyps. Survivorship of planulae was relatively high (~50% at 45 days after release), but only 24% of larvae metamorphosed into primary polyps, and their survivorship was moderate after 2 months (65% in 2008 and 74% in 2009). Asexual reproduction was negligible, indicating that sexual reproduction is the main mechanism supporting the maintenance and recovery of populations.     

Indonesian rainfall variability during Western North Pacific and Australian monsoon phase related to convectively coupled equatorial waves

The Indonesian archipelago which has over 15,000 islands, lies in the tropics between Asia and Australia. This eventually alters the rainfall variability over the region, which was influenced by the Asian-Australian monsoon and controlled by intraseasonal variabilities such as convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEW), i.e., Kelvin, n?=?1 equatorial Rossby (ER), mixed Rossby gravity (MRG), and n?=?1 Westward inertio gravity (WIG), including the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). This study examines a 15-year 3B42 data for trapping CCEW and MJO in the region of Indonesia during both active and extreme Western North Pacific (WNP) and Australian (AU) monsoon phases, which are then compared with 30-year rainfall anomalies among 38 synoptic stations over Indonesia. The space–time spectral analysis is employed to filter each wave including the MJO in the equator, then proceeding with the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method to seek each wave peak which then coincides with WNP and AU monsoon peaks over Indonesia. It is concluded that an extreme monsoon classification has proven to control rainfall activity related to the CCEW and MJO at 60.66% during December through February (DJF)-WNP for only the significant wave perturbation value. Meanwhile, the CCEW and MJO significantly increase/decrease precipitation at Day 0 for about 37.88% from the total of Day 1st to Day end. Although the contribution of the CCEW and MJO does not profoundly influence rainfall activity during monsoon phase over Indonesia, they still modulate weather condition for more than 50%. On the other hand, a complex topography with a number of land–sea complexities is capable of influencing the rainfall variability in the region as a negative relationship is associated with the CCEW and MJO either during DJF-WNP or July through August (JAS)-AU monsoon phase.     

Eigen oscillation of a fluid sphere and source mechanism of harmonic volcanic tremor

The eigen oscillation of a fluid sphere embedded in an infinite elastic medium is analyzed to understand the source mechanism of volcanic tremor that vibrates nearly monotonically and attenuates slowly. The dimensionless eigen frequencies of the sinusoidal oscillation are calculated in a complex form with the attenuation factor in its imaginary part for various combinations of the three parameters: the contrasts of P-wave velocity, density and rigidity between the fluid and the country rock. Eigen oscillations consist of a high attenuation mode with a rapidly decaying pulsive wave at a low frequency and infinite number of regular modes with slowly decaying vibrations. For regular modes, the frequency of oscillation obtained from the real part of an eigen value is distributed in approximately regular intervals while the attenuation factor from the imaginary part is almost constant independent of the mode. Each eigen frequency of regular and high attenuation modes is degenerated with two independent eigen functions describing different distributions of displacement, velocity and stress. The theory is applied to harmonic volcanic tremor observed at Kusatsu-Shirane Volcano, central Japan. Observed spectral peaks of the tremor are explained by the eigen frequencies and attenuation factors of several lowest regular modes if the spherical fluid oscillator has a radius of dozens of meters and a P-wave velocity of about several hundred meters per second.     

Latérite als Leithorizonte zur Rekonstruktion tektonischer Vorgänge auf den Festländern

A reconstruction is made of the relief which is probably developed through peneplanation and a contemporary deep kaolinisation during late Cretaceous time before the laterite formation and the relief at the time of the laterite formation in Eocene in the region of the present Guiana shield and its foreland. A characteristic plain with very shallow valleys and a thick Al-laterite on its surface was formed during Eocene time. The Al-laterite is used as a characteristic and reference horizon for the post Eocene tectonic which is characterized by a main bulge of the Guiana shield in Surinam, a weaker lift in Guyana and a submergence below sea level in the north.     

Reply to Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*

ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.     

Evolution of Planetesimal Velocities Based on Three-Body Orbital Integrations and Growth of Protoplanets

We obtain the viscous stirring and dynamical friction rates of planetesimals with a Rayleigh distribution of eccentricities and inclinations, using three-body orbital integration and the procedure described by Ohtsuki (1999, Icarus137, 152), who evaluated these rates for ring particles. We find that these rates based on orbital integrations agree quite well with the analytic results of Stewart and Ida (2000, Icarus 143, 28) in high-velocity cases. In low-velocity cases where Kepler shear dominates the relative velocity, however, the three-body calculations show significant deviation from the formulas of Stewart and Ida, who did not investigate the rates for low velocities in detail but just presented a simple interpolation formula between their high-velocity formula and the numerical results for circular orbits. We calculate evolution of root mean square eccentricities and inclinations using the above stirring rates based on orbital integrations, and find excellent agreement with N-body simulations for both one- and two-component systems, even in the low-velocity cases. We derive semi-analytic formulas for the stirring and dynamical friction rates based on our numerical results, and confirm that they reproduce the results of N-body simulations with sufficient accuracy. Using these formulas, we calculate equilibrium velocities of planetesimals with given size distributions. At a stage before the onset of runaway growth of large bodies, the velocity distribution calculated by our new formulas are found to agree quite well with those obtained by using the formulas of Stewart and Ida or Wetherill and Stewart (1993, Icarus106, 190). However, at later stages, we find that the inclinations of small collisional fragments calculated by our new formulas can be much smaller than those calculated by the previously obtained formulas, so that they are more easily accreted by larger bodies in our case. The results essentially support the previous results such as runaway growth of protoplanets, but they could enhance their growth rate by 10-30% after early runaway growth, where those fragments with low random velocities can significantly contribute to rapid growth of runaway bodies.     

The Effect of Tidal Interaction with a Gas Disk on Formation of Terrestrial Planets

We have performed N-body simulation on final accretion stage of terrestrial planets, including the effect of damping of eccentricity and inclination caused by tidal interaction with a remnant gas disk. As a result of runway and oligarchic accretion, about 20 Mars-sized protoplanets would be formed in nearly circular orbits with orbital separation of several to ten Hill radius. The orbits of the protoplanets would be eventually destabilized by long-term mutual gravity and/or secular resonance of giant gaseous planets. The protoplanets would coalesce with each other to form terrestrial planets through the orbital crossing. Previous N-body simulations, however, showed that the final eccentricities of planets are around 0.1, which are about 10 times higher than the present eccentricities of Earth and Venus. The obtained high eccentricities are the remnant of orbital crossing. We included the effect of eccentricity damping caused by gravitational interaction with disk gas as a drag force (“gravitational drag”) and carried out N-body simulation of accretion of protoplanets. We start with 15 protoplanets with 0.2M⊕ and integrate the orbits for 10⁷ years, which is consistent with the observationally inferred disk lifetime (in some runs, we start with 30 protoplanets with 0.1M⊕). In most runs, the damping time scale, which is equivalent to the strength of the drag force, is kept constant throughout each run in order to clarify the effects of the damping. We found that the planets' final mass, spatial distribution, and eccentricities depend on the damping time scale. If the damping time scale for a 0.2M⊕ mass planet at 1 AU is longer than 10⁸ years, planets grow to Earth's size, but the final eccentricities are too high as in gas-free cases. If it is shorter than 10⁶ years, the eccentricities of the protoplanets cannot be pumped up, resulting in not enough orbital crossing to make Earth-sized planets. Small planets with low eccentricities are formed with small orbital separation. On the other hand, if it is between 10⁶ and 10⁸ years, which may correspond to a mostly depleted disk (0.01-0.1% of surface density of the minimum mass model), some protoplanets can grow to about the size of Earth and Venus, and the eccentricities of such surviving planets can be diminished within the disk lifetime. Furthermore, in innermost and outermost regions in the same system, we often find planets with smaller size and larger eccentricities too, which could be analogous to Mars and Mercury. This is partly because the gravitational drag is less effective for smaller mass planets, and partly due to the “edge effect,” which means the innermost and outermost planets tend to remain without collision. We also carried out several runs with time-dependent drag force according to depletion of a gas disk. In these runs, we used exponential decay model with e-folding time of 3×10⁶ years. The orbits of protoplanets are stablized by the eccentricity damping in the early time. When disk surface density decays to ?1% of the minimum mass disk model, the damping force is no longer strong enough to inhibit the increase of the eccentricity by distant perturbations among protoplanets so that the orbital crossing starts. In this disk decay model, a gas disk with 10⁻⁴-10⁻³ times the minimum mass model still remains after the orbital crossing and accretional events, which is enough to damp the eccentricities of the Earth-sized planets to the order of 0.01. Using these results, we discuss a possible scenario for the last stage of terrestrial planet formation.     

Effect of hydrostatic pressure on the lattice parameters of Fe2SiO4 olivine up to 70 kbar

The pressure dependence of the three lattice parameters and unit cell volume of fayalite (Fe₂SiO₄ olivine) was determined by X-ray diffraction under hydrostatic pressures up to 70 kbar. In order to eliminate stress inhomogeneity within a composite material consisting of a specimen mixed with an internal-pressure standard, a liquid (1 : 1 mixture of ethanol and methanol) was used as a pressure-transmitting medium. The isothermal bulk modulus calculated on the basis of the second-order Birch-Murnaghan equation of state gives the values K₀ = 1.19 ± 0.10 Mbar and K₀′ = 7 ± 4, and if we assume K₀′ = 5: K₀ = 1.24 ± 0.02 Mbar. Three axes of fayalite were found to be compressible in the following order, b >c >a. Comparisons with the results obtained under non-hydrostatic compression are made.