A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.     

Long-term seasonal rainfall forecasting: efficiency of linear modelling technique

Using the lagged (past) climate indices, including El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as input parameters and long-term spring rainfall as outputs, calibration and validation of the linear multiple regression (MR) models have been performed. Since Australian rainfall varies both temporally and spatially, the analysis on the linear MR models was performed on regional scale. These models show the capability of linear MR technique for long-term predictions of Western Australian spring rainfall. The emphasis was given to assess the statistical correlations between Western Australian spring rainfall and dominating large-scale climate modes. The efficiency of linear modelling technique was evaluated to predict seasonal rainfall forecasting. At the same time, the Pearson correlation (R), mean absolute error, root-mean-square error and Willmott index agreement (d) were used to assess the capability of MR models. The models which fulfilled the limits of statistical significances were used for the prediction of future spring rainfall using independent data set. The results indicate that during calibration periods maximum achievable correlations varied from 0.47 to 0.53 for the selected stations. In regard to predict peaks and troughs of rainfall time series, it was found that correlations between predicted and actual peaks varied from 0.82 to 0.94 and between predicted and actual troughs varied from 0.53 to 0.91.     

Chemical composition of rock-forming minerals and crystallization physicochemical conditions of the Middle Eocene I-type Haji Abad pluton,SW Buin-Zahra,Iran

The Haji Abad intrusion is a well-exposed Middle Eocene I-type granodioritc pluton in the Urumieh–Dokhtar magmatic assemblage (UDMA). The major constituents of the investigated rocks are K-feldspar, quartz, plagioclase, pyroxene, and minor Fe–Ti oxide and hornblende. The plagioclase compositions fall in the labradorite, andesine, and oligoclase fields. The amphiboles range in composition from magnesio-hornblende to tremolite–hornblende of the calcic-amphibole group. Most pyroxenes principally plot in the field of diopside. The calculated average pressure of emplacement is 1.9 kbar for the granodioritic rocks, crystallizing at depths of about 6.7 km. The highest pressure estimated from clinopyroxene geobarometry (5 kbar) reflects initial pyroxene crystallization pressure, indicating initial crystallization depth (17.5 km) in the Haji Abad granodiorite. The estimated temperatures using two-feldspar thermometry give an average 724 °C. The calculated average temperature for clinopyroxene crystallization is 1090 °C. The pyroxene temperatures are higher than the estimated temperature by feldspar thermometry, indicating that the pyroxene and feldspar temperatures represent the first and late stages of magmatic crystallization of Haji Abad granodiorite, respectively. Most pyroxenes plot above the line of Fe³⁺?=?0, indicating they crystallized under relatively high oxygen fugacity or oxidized conditions. Furthermore, the results show that the Middle Eocene granitoids crystallized from magmas with H₂O content about 3.2 wt%. The relatively high water content is consistent with the generation environment of HAG rocks in an active continental margin and has allowed the magma to reach shallower crustal levels. The MMEs with ellipsoidal and spherical shapes show igneous microgranular textures and chilled margins, probably indicating the presence of magma mixing. Besides, core to rim compositional oscillations (An and FeO) for the plagioclase crystals serve as robust evidence to support magma mixing. The studied amphiboles and pyroxenes are grouped in the subalkaline fields that are consistent with crystallization from I-type calc-alkaine magma in the subduction environment related to active continental margin. Mineral chemistry data indicate that Haji Abad granodiorites were generated in an orogenic belt related to the volcanic arc setting consistent with the subduction of Neo-Tethyan oceanic crust beneath the central Iranian microcontinent.     

Investigation of SVM and Level Set Interactive Methods for Road Extraction from Google Earth Images

Currently, methods of extracting spatial information from satellite images are mainly based on visual interpretations and drawing the consequences by human factor, which is both costly and time consuming. A large volume of data collected by satellite sensors, and significant improvement in spatial and spectral resolution of these images require the development of new methods for optimal use of these data in order to produce rapid economic and updating road maps. In this study, a new automatic method is proposed for road extraction by integrating the SVM and Level Set methods. The estimated probability of classification by SVM is used as input in Level Set Method. The average of completeness, correctness, and quality was 84.19, 88.69 and 76.06% respectively indicate high performance of proposed method for road extraction from Google Earth images.     

Unconfined Compression Strength of Polymer Stabilized Forest Soil Clay

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - Due to undesired mechanical characteristics, some forest soils cause problems in road construction. Several methods have been proposed for stabilizing...     

Estimation of Pore Volume Compressibility in Carbonate Reservoir Rocks Based on a Classification

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - This study examined the petrographically classification, petrological and petrophysical characteristics by taking a vast range of carbonate reservoir rock...     

Assessment of 2DH and pseudo‐3D modelling platforms in a large saline aquatic system: Lake Urmia,Iran

The main objective of this paper is to provide comparative quantitative examinations on the capabilities of two‐dimensional horizontal and pseudo‐three‐dimensional (3D) modelling approaches for simulating spatial and temporal variability of the flow and salinity in Lake Urmia, Iran. The water quality in the lake has been an environmentally important subject partly because this shallow hypersaline aquatic ecosystem is considered to be one of the largest natural habitats of a unique multicellular organism, Artemia urmiana. This brine shrimp is the major food source for many of the protected and rare shorebirds that visit the lake. A. urmiana can grow and survive in certain ranges of salinity, and their disappearance could lead to an alteration of existing equilibria. The lake has also experienced considerable man‐made changes during the past three decades. A newly built crossing embankment almost divided the lake into two northern and southern halves. A relatively small opening of 1.25 km in the new embankment provides water connections between the two halves. As a result, the flow and salinity regimes have been significantly changed. This might have had adverse serious impacts on the lake ecosystem. In the current study, the two‐dimensional horizontal hydrodynamic model has been found to provide reasonable predictions for the flow regime in the lake, whereas its salinity predictions have not been consistent with the field observations. The pseudo‐3D model has produced results fairly close to the salinity measurements and its temporal and spatial variations. The pseudo‐3D model has been used for evaluating the embankment effects on the lake hydrodynamics and on the salinity conditions. The effectiveness of introducing a different number or length of openings in the embankment for restoring the pre‐embankment conditions has also been examined. These remedy options have been found not to offer substantial improvements to the lake's existing ecosystem. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fishery-induced Inter-annual Changes in the Mean Trophic Level,the Northern Sea of Oman off the Iranian Coast, 2002–2011

Ecosystem-based management is one of the most important approaches that may lead to reducing the impacts of fishing on ecosystems. In this context, we have assessed the impact of Iranian coastal fishing (using landing data of 49 exploited species) on the ecosystem of the North Sea of Oman (Sistan and Baluchestan Province), during the last decade (2002–2011), with emphasis on testing the occurrence of the “fishing down? phenomenon. The Mean Trophic Level (MTL) and Fishing-in-Balance (FiB) index are two indicators that we used for analysis. The data indicated that the increased total landings in this region might be related to the exploitation of marine fishery resources especially with regard to large pelagic fish. Over the past decade, moderate decreasing trends in MTL and an increasing trend in the FiB-index were observed. In this regard, an upward trend in the spatial expansion factor and also a downward trend in the piscivory index and in Primary Production Required (PPR) in the time period could all indicate a spatial expansion toward deep waters, the catching of the large pelagic piscivorous species, such as tuna, and a sign of fishing pressures on the ecosystem. The results suggest a range of fishery exploitation patterns throughout the food web but it seems that these patterns are not a consequence of ?fishing down?. We suggest that the monitoring research be continued in this region and these indicators should be used to make fisheries management decisions and to prevent the continuance of this trend in future.