Exurbia from the bottom-up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing a complex system

We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns.     

Estimating Deep Seafloor Interface and Volume Roughness Parameters Using the Multibeam-Hydrosweep System

Utilizing a hull-mounted, multinarrow beam echosounder onboard RV Polarstern, we measured variation of acoustic backscatter with incidence angles at two different sites in the Southern Oceans (Agulhas Plateau and the Riiser Larsen Sea). We modeled the data, using a composite roughness model, including water-sediment interface roughness and sediment volume roughness parameters. The model effectively uses the near normal incidence angle backscatter to determine the seafloor interface roughness parameters employing Helmholtz-Kirchhoff theory. Beyond 20° incidence angles, an application of Rayleigh-Rice theory is made by using a necessary splicing technique (combining both of the theories at 20° incidence angle). The estimated interface and volume roughness parameters are found to be in accordance with the known area geology.     

The Removal of Dissolved Metals by Hydroxysulphate Precipitates during Oxidation and Neutralization of Acid Mine Waters, Iberian Pyrite Belt

This study examines the removal of dissolved metals during the oxidation and neutralization of five acid mine drainage (AMD) waters from La Zarza, Lomero, Esperanza, Corta Atalaya and Poderosa mines (Iberian Pyrite Belt, Huelva, Spain). These waters were selected to cover the spectrum of pH (2.2–3.5) and chemical composition (e.g., 319–2,103 mg/L Fe; 2.85–33.3 g/L SO₄⁼) of the IPB mine waters. The experiments were conducted in the laboratory to simulate the geochemical evolution previously recognized in the field. This evolution includes two stages: (1) oxidation of dissolved Fe(II) followed by hydrolysis and precipitation of Fe(III), and (2) progressive pH increase during mixing with fresh waters. Fe(III) precipitates at pH < 3.5 (stages 1 and 2) in the form of schwertmannite, whereas Al precipitates during stage 2 at pH 5.0 in the form of several hydroxysulphates of variable composition (hydrobasaluminite, basaluminite, aluminite). During these stages, trace elements are totally or partially sorbed and/or coprecipitated at different rates depending basically on pH, as well as on the activity of the SO₄⁼ anion (which determines the speciation of metals). The general trend for the metals which are chiefly present as aqueous free cations (Pb²⁺, Zn²⁺, Cu²⁺, Cd²⁺, Mn²⁺, Co²⁺, Ni²⁺) is a progressive sorption at increasing pH. On the other hand, As and V (mainly present as anionic species) are completely scavenged during the oxidation stage at pH < 3.5. In waters with high activities (> 10⁻¹) of the SO ₄⁼ ion, some elements like Al, Zn, Cd, Pb and U can also form anionic bisulphate complexes and be significantly sorbed at pH < 5. The removal rates at pH 7.0 range from around 100% for As, V, Cu and U, and 60–80% for Pb, to less than 20% for Zn, Co, Ni and Mn. These processes of metal removal represent a significant mechanism of natural attenuation in the IPB.     

Spatial process and data models: Toward integration of agent-based models and GIS

The use of object-orientation for both spatial data and spatial process models facilitates their integration, which can allow exploration and explanation of spatial-temporal phenomena. In order to better understand how tight coupling might proceed and to evaluate the possible functional and efficiency gains from such a tight coupling, we identify four key relationships affecting how geographic data (fields and objects) and agent-based process models can interact: identity, causal, temporal and topological. We discuss approaches to implementing tight integration, focusing on a middleware approach that links existing GIS and ABM development platforms, and illustrate the need and approaches with example agent-based models.     

GGM02 – An improved Earth gravity field model from GRACE

A new generation of Earth gravity field models called GGM02 are derived using approximately 14 months of data spanning from April 2002 to December 2003 from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE). Relative to the preceding generation, GGM01, there have been improvements to the data products, the gravity estimation methods and the background models. Based on the calibrated covariances, GGM02 (both the GRACE-only model GGM02S and the combination model GGM02C) represents an improvement greater than a factor of two over the previous GGM01 models. Error estimates indicate a cumulative error less than 1 cm geoid height to spherical harmonic degree 70, which can be said to have met the GRACE minimum mission goals. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at     

Papua New Guinea Highlands: palaeomagnetic constraints on terrane tectonics

Oblique convergence since the Early Cenozoic between the northward-moving Australian plate, westward-moving Pacific plate and almost stationary Eurasian plate has created a world-ranking tectonic zone in the eastern Indonesia–New Guinea–Southwest Pacific region (Tonga–Sulawesi megashear) that is notorious for its complex mix of tectonic styles and terrane juxtapositions. Unlike an ancient analog—the Mesozoic–Cenozoic Cordillera of North America—palaeomagnetic constraints on terrane motions in the zone are few. To improve the framework of quantitative control on such motions and therefore our understanding of the development of the zone, results of a palaeomagnetic study in the Highlands region of Papua New Guinea (PNG), in the southern part of the New Guinea Orogen, are reported. The study yields new insights into terrane tectonics along the Australian craton's active northern margin and confirms the complexity of block rotations to be expected at the local scale in tectonically intricate zones. The study is based on more than 500 samples (21 localities) collected from an interior and an exterior zone of New Guinea's central cordillera. The two zones are separated by the Tahin and Stolle–Lagaip–Kaugel Fault zones and collectively represent the para-autochthonous northern margin of the Australian craton. Samples from the interior zone, which in the study area comprises a cratonic spur of uncertain—probably displaced—origin, come from Triassic to Miocene sediments and subordinate volcanics of the Kubor Anticline, Jimi Terrane, and Yaveufa Syncline (16 localities) in the central and eastern Highlands. Samples from the exterior zone, which represent a basement-involved, Pliocene foreland fold-and-thrust belt, come from Middle Eocene to Middle Miocene carbonates and clastics (five localities) in the southern Highlands of the Papuan Fold Belt. Results permit us to constrain the tectonic evolution of the two zones palaeomagnetically. Using mainly thermal demagnetization techniques, three main magnetic components have been identified in the collection: (1) a recent field overprint of both normal and reverse polarity; (2) a pervasive overprint of mainly normal polarity that originated during extensive Middle to Late Miocene intrusive activity in the central cordillera; and (3) a primary component which has been identified in only 7 of the 21 localities (5 of 11 stratigraphic units represented in the collection). All components show patterns of rotation that are consistent within the zones, but differ between them. In the interior zone (central and eastern Highlands), large-scale counterclockwise rotations of between 30°+ and 100°+ have been established throughout the Kubor Anticline and Jimi Terrane, with some clockwise rotation present in the southern part of the Yaveufa Syncline. In contrast, in the Mendi area of the exterior zone (southern Highlands), clockwise rotations of between 30°+ and 50°+ can be recognized. These contrasting rotation patterns across the Tahin and Stolle–Lagaip–Kaugel Fault zones indicate decoupling of the two tectonic zones, probably along basement-involved faults. The clockwise rotations in the southern Highlands of the Papuan Fold Belt are to be expected from its structural grain, and are probably governed by regional basement faults and transverse lineaments. In contrast, the pattern of counterclockwise rotations in the Kubor Anticline–Jimi Terrane cratonic spur of the central and eastern Highlands was unexpected. The pattern is interpreted to result from non-rigid rotation of continental terranes as they were transported westward across the northeastern margin of the Australian craton. This margin became reorganised after the Middle Miocene, when the steadily northward-advancing Australian craton impinged into the westward-moving Pacific plate/buffer-plate system. Transpressional reorganisation under the influence of the sinistral Tonga–Sulawesi megashear became enhanced with Mio-Pliocene docking, and subsequent southward overthrusting, of the Finisterre Terrane onto the northeastern margin of the Australian craton.     

Generalized plasticity state parameter‐based model for saturated and unsaturated soils. Part 1: Saturated state

The behavior of granular materials is known to depend on its loose or dense nature, which in turns depends both on density and confining pressure. Many models developed in the past require the use of different sets of constitutive parameters for the same material under different confining pressures. The purpose of this paper is to extend a basic generalized plasticity model for sands proposed by Pastor, Zienkiewicz and Chan by modifying the main ingredients of the model flow—rule, loading–unloading discriminating direction and plastic modulus—to include a dependency on the state parameter. The proposed model is tested against the available experimental data on three different sands, using for each of them a single set of material parameters, finding a reasonably good agreement between experiments and predictions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.