Climate Suitability for Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.     

Carbon Sequestration in Arable Soils is Likely to Increase Nitrous Oxide Emissions,Offsetting Reductions in Climate Radiative Forcing

Strategies for mitigating the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere include sequestering carbon (C) in soils and vegetation of terrestrial ecosystems. Carbon and nitrogen (N) move through terrestrial ecosystems in coupled biogeochemical cycles, and increasing C stocks in soils and vegetation will have an impact on the N cycle. We conducted simulations with a biogeochemical model to evaluate the impact of different cropland management strategies on the coupled cycles of C and N, with special emphasis on C-sequestration and emission of the greenhouse gases methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O). Reduced tillage, enhanced crop residue incorporation, and farmyard manure application each increased soil C-sequestration, increased N₂O emissions, and had little effect on CH₄ uptake. Over 20 years, increases in N₂O emissions, which were converted into CO₂-equivalent emissions with 100-year global warming potential multipliers, offset 75–310% of the carbon sequestered, depending on the scenario. Quantification of these types of biogeochemical interactions must be incorporated into assessment frameworks and trading mechanisms to accurately evaluate the value of agricultural systems in strategies for climate protection.     

Article 2 of the UNFCCC: Historical Origins,Recent Interpretations

Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which states the treaty's long-term objective, is the subject of a growing literature that examines means to interpret and implement this provision. Here we provide context for these studies by exploring the intertwined scientific, legal, economic, and political history of Article 2. We review proposed definitions for “dangerous anthropogenic interference” and frameworks that have been proposed for implementing these definitions. Specific examples of dangerous climate changes suggest limits on global warming ranging from 1 to 4 ^∘C and on concentrations ranging from 450 to 700 ppm CO₂ equivalents. The implications of Article 2 for near term restrictions on greenhouse-gas emissions, e.g., the Kyoto Protocol, are also discussed.     

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

PNNLs Agriculture and Land Use is used to demonstrate the impact of potential changes in climate on agricultural production and land use in the United States. AgLU simulates production of four crop types in several world regions, in 15-yr time steps from 1990 to 2095. Changes in yield of major field crops in the United States, for 12 climate scenarios, are obtained from simulations of the EPIC crop growth model. Results from the HUMUS model are used to constrain crop irrigation, and BIOME3 model is used to simulate productivity of unmanaged ecosystems. Assumptions about changes in agricultural productivity outside the United States are treated on a scenario basis, either responding in the same way as in the United States, or not responding to climate.     

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

Here we simulate dryland agriculture in the United States in order to assess potential future agricultural production under a set of general circulation model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The total national production of three major grain crops—corn, soybeans, and winter wheat—and two forage crops—alfalfa and clover hay—is calculated for the actual present day core production area (CPA) of each of these crops. In general, higher global mean temperature (GMT) reduces production and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]) increases production. Depending on the climatic change scenarios employed overall national production of the crops studied changes by up to plus or minus 25% from present-day levels. Impacts are more significant regionally, with crop production varying by greater than ±50% from baseline levels. Analysis of currently possible production areas (CPPAs) for each crop indicates that the regions most likely to be affected by climate change are those on the margins of the areas in which they are currently grown. Crop yield variability was found to be primarily influenced by local weather and geographic features rather than by large-scale changes in climate patterns and atmospheric composition. Future US agronomic potential will be significantly affected by the changes in climate projected here. The nature of the crop response will depend primarily on to what extent precipitation patterns change and also on the degree of warming experienced.     

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment Summary

This special issue of Climatic Change describes an effort to improve methodology for integrated assessment of impacts and consequences of climatic change. Highlights of the seven foregoing Parts (papers) that constitute this special issue are summarized here. The methodology developed involves construction of scenarios of climate change that are used to drive individual sectoral models for simulating impacts on crop production, irrigation demand, water supply and change in productivity and geography of unmanaged ecosystems. Economic impacts of the changes predicted by integrating the results of the several sectoral simulation models are calculated through an agricultural land-use model. While these analyses were conducted for the conterminous United States alone, their global implications are also considered in this summary as is the need for further improvements in integrated assessment methodology.     

Characterisation of Soot Emitted by Domestic Heating,Aircraft and Cars Using Diesel or Biodiesel

The characterisation of aggregates, like soot, firstly requires the determination of the size distribution of the primary particles. The primary particle size of combustion generated aggregates depends upon the combustion environment and the formation conditions, such as temperature, pressure and fuel-to-air ratio, among others. Since the combustion characteristics are different in the different types of burners, the characterisation of primary particles may offer the possibility to distinguish soot from different sources. In this paper, we present the signature of the primary particles and the aggregates of soot emitted by cars using diesel or biodiesel, by domestic heating, and by aircraft exhausts, which can be considered as the major sources as derived from measurements on transmission electron micrographs. The size distributions of all aggregates types with different aerodynamic diameter were log-normal and quasi-monodisperse. The size distribution of the primary particles for soot emitted by different sources showed minor differences. However, a comparison between the diameter of the primary particles and those obtained using a standard method for carbon black revealed discrepancies. The median diameter of the primary particles was combined with the median number of primary particles in an aggregate to calculate the relative particle surface area available for adsorption. In a similar way, the relative specific surface area was determined. The surface area was measured using the Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (B.E.T.) nitrogen adsorption method and the relative surface area available for adsorption was calculated.     

Strongly peraluminous granites of Mesozoic in Eastern Nanling Range,southern China: Petrogenesis and implications for tectonics

The strongly peraluminous granites (SPGs) of Eastern Nanling Range (ENR) are a characteristic of all bearing highly aluminous minerals, such as muscovite±AI-rich biotite±tourmaline±garnet, and lack of cordierite. In respect of petrography, geochemistry, Nd isotope, and single grain zircon U-Pb dating, the representative granite bodies of them are studied. The research shows that these granites were emplaced in two stages, namely 228-225 Ma BP and J2-3 159-156 Ma BP, belonging to Indosinian and early Yanshanian periods, respectively, and they have low εNd(t) values (-10.6--11.1), high A/CNK, Rb/Sr ratios and tDM values (1887-1817 Ma), and REE's tetrad effect (TE1,3=1.13-1.34). In comparison with related geology, petrology and chronology of granites in adjacent regions, it is suggested that Indosinian SPGs of ENR formed in the circumstance of post-collisional extension 20 Ma after the major collision of Indosinian Movement (258-243 Ma BP) in Indo-China Peninsula, and early Yanshanian SPGs formed in the     

Temporal and spatial rupture process of the great Kunlun Mountain Pass earthquake of November 14, 2001 from the GDSN long period waveform data

The temporal and spatial rupture process of the 14 November 2001 Kunlun Mountain Pass earthquake (KMPE) is obtained by inverting the high signal-to-noise-ratio P-waveform data of vertical components of 20 stations with epicentral distances less than 90°, which are of Global Digital Seismogragh Network (GDSN). The inverted results indicate that the KMPE consists of 3 sub-events. The rupture of the first sub-event initiated at the instrumental epicenter (35.97°N, 90.59°E) and then propagated both westwards and eastwards, extending 140 km westwards at the speed of 4.0 km/s and 80 km eastwards at the speed of 2.2 km/s, which appeared to be an asymmetrical bilateral rupture dominantly from east to west. This sub-event formed a 220-km-long fault. Fifty-two seconds after initiation of the first sub-event, at which time the first sub-event was not over but in its healing phase, the rupture of the second sub-event initiated 220 km west of the epicenter and propagated both westwards and eastwards, extending 50     

Clay mineral records of East Asian monsoon evolution during late Quaternary in the southern South China Sea

High-resolution clay mineral records combined with oxygen isotopic stratigraphy over the past 190 ka during late Quaternary from core MD01-2393 off the Mekong River in the southern South China Sea are reported to reconstruct a history of East Asian monsoon evolution. The dominating clay mineral components indicate a strong glacial-interglacial cyclicity, with high glacial illite, chlorite, and kaolinite contents and high interglacial smectites content. The provenance analysis indicates the direct input of clay minerals via the Mekong River drainage basin. Illite and chlorite derived mainly from the upper reach of the Mekong River, where physical erosion of meta-sedimentary rocks is dominant. Kaolinite derived mainly from active erosion of inhered clays from reworked sediments in the middle reaches. Smectites originated mainly through bisiallitic soils in the middle to lower reaches of the Mekong River. The smectites/(illite+chlorite) and smectites/kaolinite ratios are determined as mineralogical indicato