利用遥感技术建立墨西哥热带地上生物量模型(英文)

Spatially-explicit estimation of aboveground biomass(AGB) plays an important role to generate action policies focused in climate change mitigation,since carbon(C) retained in the biomass is vital for regulating Earth’s temperature.This work estimates AGB using both chlorophyll(red,near infrared) and moisture(middle infrared) based normalized vegetation indices constructed with MCD43A4 MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) and MOD44B vegetation continuous fields(VCF) data.The study area is located in San Luis Potosí,Mexico,a region that comprises a part of the upper limit of the intertropical zone.AGB estimations were made using both individual tree data from the National Forest Inventory of Mexico and allometric equations reported in scientific literature.Linear and nonlinear(expo-nential) models were fitted to find their predictive potential when using satellite spectral data as explanatory variables.Highly-significant correlations(p = 0.01) were found between all the explaining variables tested.NDVI62,linked to chlorophyll content and moisture stress,showed the highest correlation.The best model(nonlinear) showed an index of fit(Pseudo-r2) equal to 0.77 and a root mean square error equal to 26.00 Mg/ha using NDVI62 and VCF as explanatory variables.Validation correlation coefficients were similar for both models:lin-ear(r = 0.87**) and nonlinear(r = 0.86**).     

全球气候变化下秦岭南北气温变化特征

选取秦岭南麓1 000 m划分方案,运用气候倾向率、线性拟合方程、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、小波分析等气候数理统计方法,分析秦岭南北气温变化特征。结果表明:近50 a秦岭南北气候变化具有同步性,增温趋势明显;在气温突变方面,关中地区气温突变(1995年)早于陕南(1998年)。通过近10 a秦岭南北气温时空格局演变分析,认为秦岭地区气温变化符合全球变化规律,其变化是自然因素和人类活动共同作用的结果,在小尺度上人类活动干扰尤为明显(特别体现在快速城市化影响气温上升)。     

Climatic variability in the Late Copper Age: stable isotope fluctuation of prehistoric Unio pictorum (Unionidae) shells from Lake Balaton (Hungary)

Geochemical records of bivalve shells have been increasingly studied in the last decade to obtain information on climate conditions. In this paper we present stable isotope compositions of living and prehistoric shells of freshwater mussels (Unionidae) and their relationships with climate conditions in a shallow lake environment of Lake Balaton, West-Central Hungary. Physical conditions and stable oxygen isotope compositions of lake water samples were monitored where living bivalves were collected. Comparisons between seasonal variations in ambient temperature, water composition and within-shell isotopic variations indicate that the shells of Unio pictorum do reflect local changes at high resolution and thus can be used to study past conditions. Additionally, shells covering the last two decades were gathered at several locations along the lake in order to determine spatial and temporal variations in the shells’ isotopic compositions as a function of weather conditions. As an application, prehistoric shells collected in archaeological excavations were analysed in order to study past environmental variations. Climate variations during the Late Copper Age (5460–4870 cal. yr BP) have been assumed on the basis of geomorphological and archaeozoological observations at the site Balatonkeresztúr-Réti-dűlő (south of Lake Balaton), that suggested increasing humidity as a cause of changes in settlement location and domestic livestock husbandry. Stable carbon and oxygen isotope compositions of prehistoric bivalve shells were analyzed from excavations representing five archaeological subphases (Boleráz subphase, 5460–5310 cal. yr BP; two transitional subphases around 5310 cal. yr BP; Early Classic subphase, 5310–5060 cal. yr BP; Late Classic subphase, 5040–4870 cal. yr BP). The analyses revealed significant negative C and O isotope shifts in the transitional subphases relative to the earlier and later subphases. The isotopic variations indicate that the local climate became relatively wet and possibly cold around 5310 cal. yr BP, then it returned to drier (and likely warmer) conditions during the Classic subphases. This interpretation is in agreement with previous studies on climate changes related to the “5.3 ky event” in the European continental area and the North Atlantic Region, indicating an Atlantic influence in the Carpathian Basin.     

Environmental changes in northern New Zealand since the Middle Holocene inferred from stable isotope records (δ15N, δ13C) of Lake Pupuke

Maar lakes in the Auckland Volcanic Field are important high-resolution archives of Holocene environmental change in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses were applied on bulk organic matter and the green alga Botryococcus from a sediment core from Lake Pupuke (Auckland, North Island, New Zealand) spanning the period since 7,165?cal.?year BP. The origin of organic matter was established using total-organic?Ccarbon-to-nitrogen ratios (TOC/TN) as well as organic carbon (??¹³C_OM) and nitrogen (??¹⁵N) isotope composition of potential modern sources. This approach demonstrated that the contribution of allochthonous organic matter to the lake sediment was negligible for most of the record. The sedimentary TOC/TN ratios that are higher than Redfield ratio (i.e. >7) are attributed to N-limiting conditions throughout the record. Variations of nitrogen and carbon isotopes during the last 7,165?years are interpreted as changes in the dominant processes in the lake. While epilimnetic primary productivity controlled isotope composition before 6,600?cal.?year BP, microbial processes, especially denitrification and methane oxidation, caused overall shifts of the ??¹⁵N and ??¹³C values since the Mid-Holocene. Comparisons with climate reconstructions from the Northern Island suggest that changes in the wind-induced lake overturn and a shift to more pronounced seasonality were the most likely causes for lake-internal changes since 6,600?cal.?year BP.     

华中区域气温变化的模拟评估及未来情景预估

利用WCRP的耦合模式比较计划-阶段3的多模式数据(CMIP3数据),模拟分析基于A2、A1B、B1排放情景下华中区域2011-2100年平均气温的可能变化,结果表明,模式模拟的结果可较好地反映出气温线性变化趋势.模拟冬季增温速率略高于夏季,但夏季增温速率与观测序列呈相反变化趋势;总体能模拟出华中区域气温线性趋势的空间分布特征,但模拟数值偏高.3种情景下21世纪末华中区域平均气温的增幅(相对于1961-1990年)分别为3.7、3.4、2.0℃.21世纪中叶前夏季增幅大于冬季,21世纪末冬季增幅大于夏季;两个时间段内春、秋季基本一致.     

Nitrous oxide emissions from gasohol, ethanol and CNG light duty vehicles

A sample of 21 light duty vehicles powered by Otto cycle engines were tested on a chassis dynamometer to measure the exhaust emissions of nitrous oxide (N₂O). The tests were performed at the Vehicle Emission Laboratory of CETESB (Environmental Company of the State of Sao Paulo) using the US-FTP-75 (Federal Test Procedure) driving cycle. The sample tested included passenger cars running on three types of fuels used in Brazil: gasohol, ethanol and CNG. The measurement of N₂O was made using two methods: Non Dispersive InfraRed (NDIR) analyzer and Fourier Transform InfraRed spectroscopy (FTIR). Measurements of regulated pollutants were also made in order to establish correlations between N₂O and NO_x. The average N₂O emission factors obtained by the NDIR method was 78?±?41?mg.km^?1 for vehicles running with gasohol, 73?±?45?mg.km^?1 for ethanol vehicles and 171?±?69?mg.km^?1 for CNG vehicles. Seventeen results using the FTIR method were also obtained. For gasohol vehicles the results showed a good agreement between the two methods, with an average emission factor of 68?±?41?mg.km^?1. The FTIR measurement results of N₂O for ethanol and CNG vehicles were much lower than those obtained by the NDIR method. The emission factors were 17?±?10?mg.km^?1 and 33?±?17?mg.km^?1, respectively, possibly because of the interference of water vapor (present at a higher concentration in the exhaust gases of these vehicles) on measurements by the NDIR method.     

Lake ice phenology in Berlin-Brandenburg from 1947–2007: observations and model hindcasts

Rising northern hemispheric mean air temperatures reduce the amount of winter lake ice. These changes in lake ice cover must be understood in terms of resulting effects on lake ecosystems. Accurate predictions of lake ice phenology are essential to assess resulting impact. We applied the one-dimensional physical lake model FLake to analyse past variability in ice cover timing, intensity and duration of Berlin-Brandenburg lakes. The observed ice phenology in two lakes in the period 1961–2007 was reconstructed by FLake reasonably well and with higher accuracy than by state-of-the-art linear regression models. Additional modelling results of FLake for 38 Berlin-Brandenburg lakes, observed in the winter of 2008/09, were quite satisfactory and adequately reproduced the effects of varying lake morphology and trophic state. Observations and model results showed that deeper and clearer lakes had more ice-free winters, later ice cover freezing and earlier ice cover thawing dates, resulting in shorter ice-covered periods and fewer ice-covered days than shallow and less clear lakes. The 1947–2007 model hindcasts were implemented using FLake for eight Berlin-Brandenburg lakes without ice phenology observations. Results demonstrated past trends of later ice start and earlier ice end, shorter ice cover duration and an increase in ice-free winters.     

Impacts of extreme weather on wheat and maize in France: evaluating regional crop simulations against observed data

Extreme weather conditions can strongly affect agricultural production, with negative impacts that can at times be detected at regional scales. In France, crop yields were greatly influenced by drought and heat stress in 2003 and by extremely wet conditions in 2007. Reported regional maize and wheat yields where historically low in 2003; in 2007 wheat yields were lower and maize yields higher than long-term averages. An analysis with a spatial version (10?×?10?km) of the EPIC crop model was tested with regards to regional crop yield anomalies of wheat and maize resulting from extreme weather events in France in 2003 and 2007, by comparing simulated results against reported regional crops statistics, as well as using remotely sensed soil moisture data. Causal relations between soil moisture and crop yields were specifically analyzed. Remotely sensed (AMSR-E) JJA soil moisture correlated significantly with reported regional crop yield for 2002–2007. The spatial correlation between JJA soil moisture and wheat yield anomalies was positive in dry 2003 and negative in wet 2007. Biweekly soil moisture data correlated positively with wheat yield anomalies from the first half of June until the second half of July in 2003. In 2007, the relation was negative the first half of June until the second half of August. EPIC reproduced observed soil dynamics well, and it reproduced the negative wheat and maize yield anomalies of the 2003 heat wave and drought, as well as the positive maize yield anomalies in wet 2007. However, it did not reproduce the negative wheat yield anomalies due to excessive rains and wetness in 2007. Results indicated that EPIC, in line with other crop models widely used at regional level in climate change studies, is capable of capturing the negative impacts of droughts on crop yields, while it fails to reproduce negative impacts of heavy rain and excessively wet conditions on wheat yield, due to poor representations of critical factors affecting plant growth and management. Given that extreme weather events are expected to increase in frequency and perhaps severity in coming decades, improved model representation of crop damage due to extreme events is warranted in order to better quantify future climate change impacts and inform appropriate adaptation responses.     

Detection and quantification of local anthropogenic and regional climatic transient signals in temperature logs from Czechia and Slovenia

The paper reports on detection and quantification of the impact of local anthropogenic structures and regional climatic changes on subsurface temperature field. The analyzed temperature records were obtained by temperature monitoring in a borehole in Prague-Spo?ilov (Czechia) and by repeated logging of a borehole in ?empeter (Slovenia). The observed data were compared with temperatures yielded by mathematical 3D time-variable geothermal models of the boreholes’ sites with the aim to decompose the observed transient component of the subsurface temperature into the part affected by construction of new buildings and other anthropogenic structures in surroundings of the boreholes and into the part affected by the ground surface temperature warming due to the surface air temperature rise. A direct human impact on the subsurface temperature warming was proved and contributions of individual anthropogenic structures to this change were evaluated. In the case of Spo?ilov, where the mean annual warming rate reached 0.034°C per year at the depth of 38.3?m during the period 1993–2008, it turned out that about half of the observed warming can be attributed to the air (ground) surface temperature change and half to the human activity on the surface in the immediate vicinity of the borehole. The situation is similar in ?empeter, where the effect of the recently built surface anthropogenic structures is detectable down to the depth of 80?m and the share of the anthropogenic signal on the non-stationary component of the observed subsurface temperature amounts to 30% at the depth of 50?m.     

Local climatic drivers of changes in phenology at a boreal-temperate ecotone in eastern North America

Ecosystems in biogeographical transition zones, or ecotones, tend to be highly sensitive to climate and can provide early indications of future change. To evaluate recent climatic changes and their impacts in a boreal-temperate ecotone in eastern North America, we analyzed ice phenology records (1975?C2007) for five lakes in the Adirondack Mountains of northern New York State. We observed rapidly decreasing trends of up to 21?days less ice cover, mostly due to later freeze-up and partially due to earlier break-up. To evaluate the local drivers of these lake ice changes, we modeled ice phenology based on local climate data, derived climatic predictors from the models, and evaluated trends in those predictors to determine which were responsible for observed changes in lake ice. November and December temperature and snow depth consistently predicted ice-in, and recent trends of warming and decreasing snow during these months were consistent with later ice formation. March and April temperature and snow depth consistently predicted ice-out, but the absence of trends in snow depth during these months, despite concurrent warming, resulted in much weaker trends for ice-out. Recent rates of warming in the Adirondacks are among the highest regionally, although with a different seasonality of changes (early winter > late winter) that is consistent with other lake ice records in the surrounding area. Projected future declines in snow cover could create positive feedbacks and accelerate current rates of ice loss due to warming. Climate sensitivity was greatest for the larger lakes in our study, including Wolf Lake, considered one of the most ecologically intact ??wilderness lakes?? in eastern North America. Our study provides further evidence of climate sensitivity of the boreal-temperate ecotone of eastern North America and points to emergent conservation challenges posed by climate change in legally protected yet vulnerable landscapes like the Adirondack Park.